India starts resembling China in unflattering ways 19 Dec 2024 Growth is slowing and allegations of interference in the West’s affairs are rising. Part of the narrative weighing on the world’s second-largest economy is applicable to its fifth largest. Even if similarities are exaggerated, the connection poses a threat to India’s moment.
Oil will aid rather than hinder Trump-MbS bromance 16 Dec 2024 Both the US president-elect and the Saudi crown prince want to pump more crude in 2025. Yet US drillers aren’t certain to do so. And Mohammed bin Salman may be able to extract a quid pro quo in return for deploying spare oil capacity should Donald Trump crack down on Iran.
Korea’s value push is getting a much-needed spark 11 Dec 2024 President Yoon Suk Yeol's botched coup adds urgency for Seoul to curb the power of family businesses. Even before the political crisis, the KOSPI was one of the world's worst performing major stock indices. That makes $22 bln Korea Zinc's upcoming shareholding meeting a key test.
ANZ’s new CEO has his hands partly tied 9 Dec 2024 HSBC's ex-retail boss Nuno Matos will take charge of Australia's second-largest lender. Its subpar performance merits the outside hire. But key projects, like integrating Suncorp's bank, are far from complete. That will limit his ability to shake things up at the $60 bln group.
Months of chaos will cripple France for years 6 Dec 2024 PM Michel Barnier’s budget was only the first step in a plan to stabilise public debt at 116% of GDP by 2028. His government’s collapse will make businesses and households even more reluctant to invest and spend, hitting growth. The country is headed for long-term economic pain.
UnitedHealth tragedy opens deep healthcare wounds 5 Dec 2024 The murder of insurance boss Brian Thompson drew a slew of callous responses, including on a company Facebook post. Industry profit is rising in a nation spending double its peers on healthcare for worse outcomes. Policy ideas are weak, but political risk is amping up.
Intel’s independent streak will come to an end 2 Dec 2024 Boss Pat Gelsinger is exiting the once-revolutionary chipmaker as it struggles to find a place in the future. It missed chances with Apple, Nvidia and OpenAI while its gross margin halved to 32%. A management shakeup portends a strategic one, which probably leads to a new owner.
New Stellantis CEO’s first job is a US reset 2 Dec 2024 Carlos Tavares’ abrupt exit comes after the $34 bln carmaker hiked prices and lost market share. The ideal new CEO – able to steer a course around Trump, EU emissions rules and new tech – may not exist. Stellantis could settle for a US expert who can get car dealers back on side.
New World paves Hong Kong developers’ way to China 2 Dec 2024 The $2 bln property firm’s second CEO in as many months is an expert in mainland real estate, suggesting an urgent need to deepen ties there. New World’s $20 bln debt pile may be hastening the move, but broader pressures will push healthier peers like CK Hutchison to follow suit.
Robey Warshaw’s $90 mln bonanza is taste of 2025 29 Nov 2024 The UK boutique’s four partners split a record bounty for the last financial year. That’s oddly high since it was a slow period for deals. Now, falling rates and laxer antitrust authorities will help buyouts and corporate mergers, lifting rival rainmakers too in the coming years.
Gautam Adani is promise and peril of Indian growth 28 Nov 2024 With $31 bln of debt, deep links to the banking system and a star role in India’s energy transition, the tycoon’s empire is a crucial part of the fifth-largest economy. In this week’s Viewsroom, Breakingviews columnists discuss how US bribery charges will test those dependencies.
Indian business may learn wrong lesson from Adani 27 Nov 2024 US corruption charges against tycoon Gautam Adani have cast a shadow over Narendra Modi’s war on graft. The prime minister has made progress. But rather than spurring a cleanup in the $4 trln economy, the saga might just make its capitalists warier of tapping global markets.
Tycoons’ odd telco bets mask a greater logic 26 Nov 2024 In recent years high-profile, rich investors like Carlos Slim have snapped up stakes in the likes of $19 bln BT. These haven’t always yielded juicy returns, nor prompted strategic shifts. But as a bet on much-needed consolidation, they may yet end up looking smart.
Italian bank M&A circus risks sidelining investors 26 Nov 2024 Andrea Orcel’s UniCredit offered 10 bln euros for Banco BPM, irking Rome and potentially eliciting a rival swoop from the target’s 9.2% owner Crédit Agricole. Meanwhile BPM may launch its own bid for Monte dei Paschi. The risk is that shareholder interests get lost in the noise.
Adani’s US woes put TotalEnergies on the spot 22 Nov 2024 The $137 bln French group has 20% of Adani Green Energy. Gautam Adani’s US bribery charges present a different challenge to those faced by TotalEnergies in Iran in 2018. But they complicate CEO Patrick Pouyanné’s plans to expand in a key growth market.
Gautam Adani’s key man risk is hard to contain 21 Nov 2024 US bribery accusations will narrow financing options for the tycoon’s $146 bln conglomerate more than a short-seller attack did. Other countries may get involved, too. Adani can limit damage by stepping down, but his tight ownership of the empire he built complicates matters.
Market’s Trump trades at risk from bond vigilantes 20 Nov 2024 US consumer prices have risen 21% since 2020, helping President-elect Donald Trump win the White House. His policies, though, may stoke inflation. Stocks, bitcoin and the dollar like a hot economy. But a rising deficit could upset debt investors and hit the current market stars.
New Nestlé CEO wakes up and smells the bad coffee 19 Nov 2024 The KitKat maker’s boss Laurent Freixe unveiled a plan to get the $230 bln group moving again. Yet a 4% sales-growth target and unchanged operating margin seem low. Cutting $2.8 bln of costs to invest in marketing makes sense, but he’ll have to battle rising ingredient prices.
Siemens Energy’s vicious circle becomes virtuous 13 Nov 2024 The $35 bln German group surged 20% after it revealed punchy 2028 targets. For years, troubles in its wind unit obscured Siemens Energy’s status as a green transition winner. While these aren’t all fixed, the company looks cheap if CEO Christian Bruch can hit his new goals.
Vodafone M&A spree leaves German problem untouched 12 Nov 2024 CEO Margherita Della Valle has spent the past 18 months remodelling the $23 bln telco by striking deals in Britain, Spain and Italy. But the shares have trailed European rivals’. To change that, the former finance chief will have to tell a better Teutonic growth story.