Labour

Labour and labour market point to slower BoE cuts

18 Dec 2024

The Bank of England is set to leave rates on hold this week. The economy is weak but pay growth is strong, keeping inflation above 2%. The government’s plans will boost GDP and prices in 2025. Until unemployment rises, Governor Andrew Bailey cannot ease as fast as foreign peers.

Saudi’s Davos is no longer such a desert

1 Nov 2024

Around 8,000 CEOs and financiers flocked to the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, twice the number at its inception in 2017. Western bosses were keener to talk about artificial intelligence than investing in the kingdom. But Saudi’s progress suggests that may yet change.

Labor is on the Fed’s side against inflation

10 Oct 2024

A three-year low for US price rises amid robust job gains reverses the usual tension between employment and inflation. New workers and high productivity are key to the balance. But as Fed boss Jay Powell eyes rate cuts, a new president or fading Covid-era boons could topple it.

Hey team: Weaker hiring means back to the office

8 Oct 2024

About 100 mln people in North America and Europe now work remotely at least some days. More CEOs, like Amazon’s Andy Jassy, want to end the practice altogether. The tension is upsetting staff and spurring defections, but a rise in joblessness would shift power back to employers.

Union flaws run amok on both sides of picket line

4 Oct 2024

Port workers on the US East Coast have negotiated a 62% pay rise over six years. The resolution seems fair. But the process has highlighted gross inefficiencies – from overpaid union leaders to a nebulous counterparty. A revamp of unions, in the absence of politics, is necessary.

Dockworkers unpack lasting weak trade links

1 Oct 2024

An extended strike by 45,000 US longshoremen threatens to cost the economy $5 bln daily and snarl supply chains. Government intervention would rattle relations with unions just ahead of the election. The clash illustrates the limits of onshoring, nearshoring and friendshoring.

Under-fire workers spell trouble for US and Europe

17 Sep 2024

Unemployment remained low in both blocs even as interest rates rose. Staff hoarding and healthy profits averted layoffs. Now, though, US job vacancies are at the lowest since 2021 and euro zone CEOs want to hire less. If labour markets crack, recessions will be harder to avoid.

Court-emboldened capital puts labor on front lines

9 Aug 2024

Starbucks and SpaceX are among the employers testing the scope of a recent US Supreme Court decision against SEC tribunals. If it extends to a labor law agency, it would be a setback for reinvigorated unions and give companies proof of concept to undo rulings elsewhere.

Labor market flags growth slowdown not recession

5 Aug 2024

A rise in the US unemployment rate to 4.3% was a driver of the global equities rout, fueling fears of an economic contraction. But rehired workers and immigrants are boosting supply, adding jobs and cooling wages. The real worry will come if more firms have layoffs like Intel’s.

Boeing and Airbus headwinds are hard to escape

23 Jul 2024

The troubled US jet maker and its European rival aren’t delivering as many planes as customers want. On this Exchange podcast, AirInsight co-founder Addison Schonland explains how some problems stretch back to Covid, whether a third player can break the duopoly, and much more.

Big business curbs India’s populist instinct

22 Jul 2024

Bengaluru's home state of Karnataka backed down from a plan to force firms to hire more locals following a strong industry backlash. It's a relief for employers from Goldman Sachs to AB InBev. But pressure from the jobs crisis is building and will keep rearing its ugly head.

Why AI may fail to unlock the productivity puzzle

4 Jul 2024

The world’s richest economies are grappling with slowing growth in output. Many investors believe artificial intelligence can provide a much-needed boost. But four features of the technology suggest the benefits will be limited – and might even achieve the opposite outcome.

UK labour market’s pain is Labour Party’s gain

18 Jun 2024

Britain’s 4.4% unemployment rate is its highest since 2021. That’s good for the Bank of England, which needs slower wage growth to cut rates. It also suits opposition leader Keir Starmer, who could get an early monetary policy boost should he win the UK’s July 4 election.

UK building plans will fail to get off the ground

6 Jun 2024

Rivals in the July 4 election promise 300,000 new houses a year to ease shortages and lower prices. A lack of builders makes that unlikely. More than 346,000 construction jobs have disappeared since 2019. Without immigration or training, Britain will remain cramped and expensive.

Tories’ obsession with French unions is obsolete

31 May 2024

UK PM Rishi Sunak accused Labour of plotting ‘French-style union laws’. But France has the lowest proportion of organised workers among big European nations. And there were fewer strikes in the last three years than in Britain. Time for the Conservatives to find another bogeyman.

Silicon Valley models value of noncompete ban

24 Apr 2024

A new FTC rule forbids US companies from stopping employees joining a rival, or starting one. Freeing up opportunities for a fifth of the workforce should boost pay. California’s tech hub also showcases other benefits of labor mobility. Intel, for example, exists because of it.

Germany sovereign pension fund is sound but small

3 Apr 2024

Berlin will borrow to invest up to 200 bln euros in global equities to help pay for the retirement of the country’s fast-ageing population. The vehicle’s modest size will limit its long-term impact, but Europe can learn from this blend of public and private schemes.

Profitability is next sacrifice at inflation altar

2 Apr 2024

Central bankers want LVMH, Pepsi and others to pay higher wages without raising prices. Bottom lines in the euro zone already have dipped to 40% of output, the lowest rate since 2020, and Big Tech accounts for most US margin growth. CEOs and investors can expect leaner times.

BoE gears up to unnecessarily prolong worker pain

20 Mar 2024

The Bank of England is set to keep rates steady because it wants to see slower wage growth before easing policy. But pay rises are already falling and won’t cause inflation. The central bank could help 30 mln employees, and 11 mln borrowers, by cutting borrowing costs sooner.

Starbucks union is labor’s mighty mouse moment

6 Mar 2024

An organization representing workers withdrew its board nominees for the $103 bln coffee company after getting some concessions, which look perfunctory. But the structure of Starbucks’ workforce isn’t amenable to successful collective bargaining. Even a small labor win is a win.