Investment Banking

Mission Impossible: Paramount reckoning

5 Jul 2023

Everyone has a price and media mogul Shari Redstone is no different. The trouble is that her conglomerate’s TV networks alone are worth more than its $11 bln market value. Despite a rich history of breakups, it would take a financial Ethan Hunt to extract full value this time.

UK banks are appropriate airbag for mortgage crash

27 Jun 2023

British politicians are starting to call out lenders that have delayed passing on higher rates to savers, even as they charge borrowers more. Bank share valuations already implied such windfalls might be temporary. The sector’s rising margins justify some political arm-twisting.

Capital Calls: Eli Lilly gorges on obesity options

27 Jun 2023

Concise views on global finance: The drugmaker found patients losing an incredible 24% of their weight on one of its latest treatments. First-movers don’t always win out in pharma, however, as Pfizer proved with Lipitor. That’s why Lilly is wise to keep investing in alternatives.

Swiss $17 bln CoCo case could bite UBS on the tail

21 Jun 2023

Bondholders are suing regulator FINMA for ordering the writedown of funky hybrid bonds to smooth a Credit Suisse deal. If they win, the debt may come back to life, giving UBS a capital hole. Or the government may pick up the tab, creating new political headaches.

Odey brokers’ belated rethink is a cautionary tale

12 Jun 2023

JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and others are reviewing links to the fund manager. Odey’s 2021 firing of his executive team should have been a red flag to do so even before further sexual assault allegations emerged. Brokers’ tardy responses just raise questions about their processes.

Capital Calls: London crypto move, Stellantis SPAC

12 Jun 2023

Concise views on global finance: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak welcomes Andreessen Horowitz’s UK office just as cryptocurrencies face a regulatory crackdown in the US; the European carmaker’s move to back a London blank-check vehicle is less hairy than it sounds.

Tiny tech bank defies US massacre of the minnows

8 Jun 2023

After a string of failures, consolidation is inevitable among the country’s 4,100 lenders. But $1 bln Live Oak, with no branches and lashings of technology, punches well above its weight. Even though rising rates may hurt, the bank shows that bigger isn’t necessarily better.

UBS’s $10 bln state guarantee is a useful fantasy

7 Jun 2023

The bank is getting Swiss taxpayers to shield it against some losses on its Credit Suisse deal. It allows the government to smooth a controversial takeover, and helps UBS boost a stretched capital ratio. Both sides are making a calculated bet that the backstop is never needed.

President Dimon would be square peg in Oval hole

2 Jun 2023

JPMorgan’s longtime boss could get a head start on a 2024 White House run by capturing the powerful capitalist constituency. Beyond that, there are too many pitfalls. For one thing, he is an avowed free-enterpriser, a quality ill-suited for this particular executive office.

IPO pops are iffy adverts for Gulf capital markets

1 Jun 2023

ADNOC L&S, like other floats by the UAE energy giant, surged on its first day of trading. Yet the 50% rise looks contrived. Abu Dhabi’s listings boom is narrow, and mostly involves state-linked firms. Its dreams of being a go-to destination for global capital are remote.

Wall Street faces life in China’s second tier

1 Jun 2023

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and rivals are trimming jobs in Greater China due to a slow recovery and US tensions. Even when activity picks up, boosting market share in the world’s second-largest economy will be tough. The usually dominant financiers will remain fringe players.

Mediobanca chief’s 20-year race has one more lap

24 May 2023

For two decades, Alberto Nagel has fought market and boardroom crises while diversifying the Italian bank and booking fat returns. His new business plan lacks fireworks. But fear of destabilisation will prompt restless core investors to back the veteran banker for one more term.

Lazard’s next CEO should channel James Gorman

19 May 2023

Ken Jacobs will leave the storied advisory shop much the way he found it, ceding ground to new rivals in the process. Over the same 13-year span, Morgan Stanley’s retiring boss shrewdly and successfully reshaped his bank. A similarly bold approach would help recharge Lazard.

Capital Calls: BT, Mediobanca

18 May 2023

Concise views on global finance: The 14 bln pound UK telco’s vague guidance is a concern for its two big shareholders seeking to recoup losses; the 8.5 bln euro Italian bank buys its biggest boutique yet.

UBS kitchen sink has protection from further leaks

17 May 2023

The bank reckons it might write down the assets on Credit Suisse’s balance sheet by $10 bln, inflate its liabilities by $3 bln, and take a $4 bln litigation hit. Those numbers could get bigger over time. But a low purchase price gives CEO Sergio Ermotti a chunky margin of error.

It’s time HSBC’s top owner calms down or sells up

4 May 2023

Ping An’s fight for a rejig is going nowhere, more so after the $150 bln lender’s bumper profit. Continuing risks hurting the Chinese insurer, HSBC and maybe even Hong Kong. Better to peacefully reap the benefits of boss Noel Quinn’s overhaul - and rejoin the fray if he falters.

Capital Calls: Europe’s JPMorgan, UniCredit

3 May 2023

Concise views on global finance: BNP Paribas is sucking up deposits while other rivals lose them, but its 12% return on equity goal looks uninspiring; the Italian bank’s CEO Andrea Orcel raised his financial targets for 2023, but may not rush a BPM swoop.

UK listing shakeup requires double dose of hope

3 May 2023

Britain’s financial watchdog wants to spur domestic IPO markets by weakening shareholder protections. Yet making London appealing to fast-growing foreign firms requires wider reforms that may not occur. And lower standards are only a good idea if investors punish bad governance.

HSBC puts its shareholders on the spot

2 May 2023

Boss Noel Quinn reckons last quarter’s eye-popping 19% equity return is somewhat sustainable. If he’s right, investors are undervaluing the bank, and top owner Ping An is wrong to push an Asia spinoff. But it requires everything from interest rates to asset sales to play nice.

Deutsche’s Numis swoop more logical than it looks

28 Apr 2023

The lender’s $500 mln purchase of the UK broker seems an odd move for CEO Christian Sewing, who once aimed to shrink investment banking. But the valuation isn’t silly, and a deal may boost Deutsche Bank’s corporate lending arm. Numis’s smaller peers may also now seek a new home.