Investment Banking

UK mistakes City liberalisation for a growth plan

15 Nov 2024

Finance minister Rachel Reeves wants to unleash the 153-bln-pound financial sector to boost the economy. It’s not clear that her reforms so far, like a share-trading venue for private companies, will do that. Meatier deregulation, meanwhile, would raise the risk of future crises.

Shein margin wobble takes bite out of IPO value

14 Nov 2024

The e-commerce giant’s revenue growth slumped in the first half of 2024, and the net margin fell to 2% per The Information. Even if the business recovers, it creates uncertainty that’s compounded by a protectionist US government. Investors may struggle to see the upside.

Prosus catches a moment of relief in India

13 Nov 2024

The Mumbai listing of Swiggy, one half of a food delivery duopoly, crystallizes gains in a priority market for the $100 bln Dutch tech investor. The stock market debut of the startup is decent but Prosus' other bets in fintech and e-commerce in the country look harder to monetise.

Wall Street nemeses revitalize clash of titans

16 Oct 2024

A 56% surge in deal fees helped propel Morgan Stanley shares to a record high and intensify an investment banking arch-rivalry. Goldman, in turn, is battling back in wealth management. Closing the valuation gap depends on its strategy faring better than chasing everyday savers.

Banks look for new normal, find they don’t need it

15 Oct 2024

High rates and busy markets turbocharged revenue at $325 bln Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citi and others. The question is how long it can last. Strong third-quarter results raise the tantalizing prospect that solid results are here to stay, especially if M&A and IPOs pick up.

Jamie Dimon verges on overprotecting his fortress

11 Oct 2024

JPMorgan’s boss is hoarding the mega-bank’s capital, warning of 'treacherous' geopolitical risks. A 19% return on tangible equity and premium valuation attest to the laudable prudence. Before long, however, the stockpile may become excessive, and give rise to a special dividend.

China M&A leaves offshore investors in the lurch

10 Oct 2024

The merger of brokerage firms Guotai and Haitong will massively dilute the former's Hong Kong shareholders. Blame the stubborn discount the city's stocks trade at to onshore equivalents. Beijing's consolidation push will leave more global backers in a similar spot.

Buyout barons’ dirty secret shows hard times ahead

12 Sep 2024

Since 2013, 47% of the value created by private-equity dealmakers came from selling companies at higher multiples than they paid. That boon is fading now that valuations seem stretched. KKR, Blackstone and others face lower returns or fights over high-growth targets instead.

China’s banks have a nasty case of indigestion

11 Sep 2024

For decades, Beijing leaned on lenders to fuel growth in the $17 trln economy. But it will take years for them to digest problem IOUs from firms and local governments. Officials will have to find new ways to boost GDP, or the financial dyspepsia could turn into something worse.

China brokerage deal has more bark than bite

9 Sep 2024

The merger of Guotai Junan and embattled rival Haitong will create the country’s largest brokerage with assets of $225 bln. The overcrowded sector needs consolidation, but this deal probably won’t aid Beijing’s goal to foster a squad of world-beating investment banks.

How HSBC can heal the scars of its CEO battle

29 Aug 2024

The $160 bln lender’s retail and wealth head Nuno Matos left after losing out on the top job to Georges Elhedery. The bank now has an empty CFO post, and a lack of potential future leaders. Recruiting heavy-hitting outsiders, like Citi’s Jane Fraser has done, would help.

KKR bank sale will gauge India’s fee-paying power

26 Aug 2024

The sponsor is looking for a buyer for Avendus, an investment bank rising up league tables and advising on hot deals, possibly including Swiggy's $1.2 bln IPO. It's a good time to push a sale of the tech sector's banker of choice after an earlier attempt to offload it stalled.

Europe’s dealmakers begin tough redemption journey

19 Aug 2024

The market share of BNP, Barclays, UBS, SocGen and Deutsche seems to have troughed at around 8% in M&A and 6% in equity underwriting. The days of ever-increasing US dominance may be over. Getting investors to attach more value to these volatile units, though, is the harder job.

BNP’s AXA deal is a logical use of spare cash

2 Aug 2024

The French bank will buy the insurer’s fund unit for 5.1 bln euros, using money from its BancWest sale. It’s a big deal, but the price looks fair. And while BNP Paribas investors may prefer buybacks, a capital-light target makes more sense than a rash swoop on another lender.

SocGen’s valuation salvation may lie in a breakup

29 Jul 2024

The 19 bln euro French bank trades at a 60% discount to rivals – the widest gap in a decade. None of its core units are particularly attractive, making a revival tough. But selling listed holdings, worth 8 bln euros, could fund a deeper restructuring and make M&A more plausible.

Banks prep for this-time-it’s-different deal boom

16 Jul 2024

Morgan Stanley’s 51% pop in investment banking revenue rounds out a strong quarter for Wall Street rainmakers. Peers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are also eyeing a pick-up in M&A and underwriting. But the clients look different now, and so do the banks – not all in a good way.

Now is least-bad time for JPMorgan CEO to move on

12 Jul 2024

Jamie Dimon’s 18-year tenure has rarely enjoyed such a benign backdrop: record-high profit, a revival underway for Wall Street’s dealmakers, and a regulatory hammer-blow forestalled. As successors stake out a higher profile, his steady hand might be useful elsewhere - like in DC.

Shein would lose all its shine in a Hong Kong IPO

2 Jul 2024

The $63 bln online retailer may debut in the Asian hub if its plan to list in London fails, per the FT. Not only would that confirm its failure to thread the needle between its Western markets and its Chinese roots. It would result in a slashed valuation and orphan-stock status.

Even smooth bank stress-test results fray nerves

27 Jun 2024

Big US lenders aced their annual checkups, and have nearly $300 bln of extra capital, per Breakingviews math. Much of it will be tied up for maybe a year until the Fed finalizes its botched revisions to Basel rules. For now, the exams just show shareholders what they’re missing.

Banks grab AI-generated tiger by the tail

26 Jun 2024

Sleeker IT systems, stronger fraud defenses and other algorithmic upgrades could yield nearly $200 bln of profit for lenders by 2028, one study finds. An efficiency revolution isn’t evident in valuations, however. The new tech may pay higher dividends to customers than investors.