Interest Rates

Lagarde struggles to dispel market’s gloomy vibes

17 Oct 2024

The European Central Bank lowered its key interest rate to 3.25% but didn’t commit to further cuts. Markets fear a recession and expect borrowing costs to be below 2% in 12 months. President Christine Lagarde may be forced to loosen policy faster – and reassure investors of that.

Middle East turmoil edges closer to global economy

3 Oct 2024

Military escalation between Iran and Israel may at some point affect the price of oil. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate how the conflict may prompt a fresh inflationary headache for central banks – and how Saudi Arabia might offset that risk.

Gulf turmoil will leave ratesetters on edge

2 Oct 2024

Israel’s riposte to Iran’s missile strike may see oil prices spike. The Fed, the ECB and peers struggled to contain inflation in 2022. A new energy crisis, along with a US docker strike, would force central banks to rethink rate cuts just as markets price them in.

Japan’s next PM keeps rate hikes on track

27 Sep 2024

The country’s central bank will welcome news that Shigeru Ishiba is the new prime minister. His rival had blasted tighter monetary policy. Governor Kazuo Ueda is in no rush to raise borrowing costs from 0.25% but the political leadership is unlikely to attack him when he does.

Arcane signal flags an ill-starred economic shift

26 Sep 2024

Borrowing costs are falling in major economies. But a pointy-headed academic concept which indicates the equilibrium level of interest rates – “R-star” – suggests they are unlikely to revert to pre-pandemic lows. Investors should brace for a future where money is more expensive.

Jay Powell gives next US president an early boost

19 Sep 2024

The Federal Reserve chair and his colleagues brushed off political pressure and slashed rates to protect the labor market. Policy lags mean most benefits will be felt after November’s election. Though unemployment could still get worse, markets will welcome a soft landing.

The Fed gives China several helping hands

19 Sep 2024

The 50-basis-point cut to US rates is taking pressure off the yuan, giving the People's Bank of China room to reduce borrowing costs, too. That could deflate the bond bubble, help Beijing hit its annual GDP target, and even spur more liquidity to mop up excess housing inventory.

Under-fire workers spell trouble for US and Europe

17 Sep 2024

Unemployment remained low in both blocs even as interest rates rose. Staff hoarding and healthy profits averted layoffs. Now, though, US job vacancies are at the lowest since 2021 and euro zone CEOs want to hire less. If labour markets crack, recessions will be harder to avoid.

Thrifty Europeans demand more aggressive rate cuts

12 Sep 2024

The European Central Bank lowered rates again on Thursday. President Christine Lagarde hopes to spark a consumer-led recovery. But households are saving 15% of their income, wage increases are slowing and mortgage costs rising. Only more rapid easing can cause a spending surge.

Buyout barons’ dirty secret shows hard times ahead

12 Sep 2024

Since 2013, 47% of the value created by private-equity dealmakers came from selling companies at higher multiples than they paid. That boon is fading now that valuations seem stretched. KKR, Blackstone and others face lower returns or fights over high-growth targets instead.

Draghi’s Europe plan collides with national crises

9 Sep 2024

The former Italian PM reckons the bloc must invest an extra $883 bln a year to catch up with the US and China. His report sensibly calls for telecom mergers and a common defence strategy. But the big lift will have to come from governments beset by their own issues.

Central banks lay liquidity trap for stock markets

6 Sep 2024

The US Federal Reserve and its major peers took $200 bln out of the financial system in early August, likely deepening a global equity slump. Ratesetters control the money supply for good reasons. But their huge presence and investors’ herdlike behaviour add new layers of risk.

Europe’s inflation fix requires corporate pain

30 Aug 2024

Price growth in services is still running at 4.2%, too high for European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. To bring it down, companies’ margins will have to absorb rising wage costs. Shareholders may balk but consumers, and the euro zone economy, will benefit.

Jay Powell’s task: reconcile markets and reality

23 Aug 2024

The Federal Reserve chair and skittish investors are now on the same page: the labor market is cooling, and it’s time to act. Punters are pricing in a relatively swift pace of rate cuts. The question is whether the Fed is really ready to move so quickly - or will be forced to.

Euro is reluctant wearer of King Dollar’s crown

23 Aug 2024

The currency is up nearly 3% against the greenback this month. That is odd because markets think European interest rates will fall more than US ones. Worries about Washington’s budget deficit are a factor, but the export-led euro zone can ill afford a strong exchange rate.

The ECB is running out of time to revive euro zone

16 Aug 2024

The bloc’s GDP rose by a steady 0.3% in the second quarter. But business surveys and sentiment data suggest growth is flagging. Inflation is sticky so European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde may be reluctant to cut rates decisively. But waiting risks impairing the recovery.

Stocks are still strapped into a rollercoaster

13 Aug 2024

The VIX, an index that tries to gauge investors’ fears, soared 180% last Monday as stocks tumbled. Better US economic data and soothing words from the Bank of Japan have brought it down since. But history, and the shape of today’s markets, suggest that volatility is here to stay.

Jay Powell excels at his top job: punching bag

8 Aug 2024

Market ructions have revived Washington’s love of bashing the Federal Reserve and its chairman. From Elizabeth Warren to Donald Trump, public figures can take potshots knowing Fed independence limits the consequences. History suggests when politics really reigns, chaos ensues.

The Bank of Japan’s flipflopping can backfire

8 Aug 2024

Days after Governor Kazuo Ueda talked up interest rate hikes, his deputy is suddenly playing down the prospect. That may be intentional but it muddies the message to Japanese businesses on the outlook. It also overplays Japan’s role in sparking the global market ructions.

Reluctant rate cut leaves the BoE with a lot to do

1 Aug 2024

The Bank of England lowered borrowing costs to 5% – its first such move since the pandemic. But division in its ranks and Governor Andrew Bailey’s cautious tone imply further easing will be slow. Given the fall in inflation, that will unnecessarily crimp Britain’s weak recovery.