Interest Rates

Investors need to learn to ride inflation cycle

23 Jun 2022

Bonds and shares are tumbling as prices soar, just as in the 1970s. The experience of that decade suggests value stocks, commodities and safe-haven currencies offer the best protection, says Edward Chancellor. But wild swings in inflation can still catch markets off-guard.

Lagarde will struggle to do a Mario Draghi

21 Jun 2022

Euro zone bond markets have stabilised since the ECB president pledged to buy bonds. That raises the chance that investors cowed by her Italian predecessor’s promises won’t need her to intervene much. Just as well, given interest rates and political risks make it harder to do.

Capital Calls: Hydrogen IPO, Call centre M&A

20 Jun 2022

Concise views on global finance: Despite Thyssenkrupp postponing its clean energy listing, De Nora is still pressing on with its own one at a lower 3 bln euro valuation; customer-service group Sitel agrees to buy 2.6 bln euro rival Majorel in a cash-and-stock deal.

Central bankers forget the lessons of the 1970s

16 Jun 2022

Inflation is complex, yet all sustained increases in prices have been accompanied by an expanding money supply. The Federal Reserve and other central banks ignored this the last time inflation took off, writes Edward Chancellor. There’s no sign they are learning any faster today.

Fed drives a stake into own rate-setting newthink

15 Jun 2022

A 75-basis-point rate hike, the biggest since 1994, was a rational response to surging prices. It’s also the death knell for Federal Reserve boss Jay Powell’s focus on making monetary policy more flexible and inclusive. Bold innovation is best left until prices have settled down.

ECB’s crisis weapon pledge is vague and late

15 Jun 2022

The European Central Bank will “accelerate” work on a new tool to control soaring bond yields from weak sovereigns. The lack of detail reflects divisions within the bank on when and how to use such a programme. It’s an invitation to markets to test the ECB’s resolve yet again.

Central banks still have space to fight inflation

15 Jun 2022

Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde are tightening monetary policy to try to control soaring prices. Previous shocks have prompted the Fed and ECB chiefs to pause or loosen again. Despite plunging equity prices this time, calmer credit markets imply the “Fed Put” is far off.

UK lacks fiscal plan to buffer coming slowdown

13 Jun 2022

GDP has shrunk for two consecutive months while growth and inflation forecasts are the worst in the OECD. The Bank of England is fighting runaway inflation with ever-higher rates. As Brexit exerts an additional drag, the government needs a bolder approach to spending.

Inflation-shy investors try on “least dirty shirt”

9 Jun 2022

Interest rates in the developed world lag far behind rising prices. That’s sent savers flocking to traditional safe havens to preserve their capital. Edward Chancellor argues that emerging-market currencies may offer a more appealing alternative to financial repression at home.

ECB caught in a rate quagmire of its own making

20 May 2022

The European Central Bank may raise rates in July but is divided on how high it should go. By then, weakening growth will make it harder for President Christine Lagarde to end the eight-year era of negative rates. Moving earlier to curb inflation would have avoided the dilemma.

Polish mortgage holiday is bad idea with allure

17 May 2022

Warsaw wants to protect citizens from surging inflation and interest rates by offering breaks on home loan repayments. That would cost the country’s banks up to $3.6 bln. Forcing lenders to bear the effects of Russia’s war is crude and distortive, but may also win votes.

SoftBank’s Son is running out of ammunition

12 May 2022

The stock market values the $60 bln technology conglomerate at half the sum of its parts. In the past, founder Masayoshi Son has used buybacks to prop up the shares. High leverage and slumping markets make that tricky. More radical measures, like a breakup, seem off the table.

Fed manages to hurt both rich and poor

10 May 2022

Past tardiness in tackling surging inflation means low-income U.S. households face huge increases in the cost of living. Now, Fed Chair Jay Powell may have to hike rates so much that growth falters – a prospect hitting stocks and richer households’ net worth. Misery has company.

Capital Calls: Turkey, Nintendo/Sony, India IPO

10 May 2022

Concise views on global finance: President Erdogan makes another ham-fisted monetary intervention; the Switch maker weathers supply chain ructions better than its larger rival; New Delhi needs to be even more generous in its landmark listing of Life Insurance Corp of India.

Selloff shows China’s lack of investment traction

6 May 2022

U.S.-listed Chinese stocks underperformed during Thursday’s New York bloodbath, tumbling 8%. Beijing still hasn’t convinced global funds it’s more than just another volatile emerging market. Slowing growth and an inflationary environment will make it hard to change their minds.

Andrew Bailey unwillingly channels Paul Volcker

5 May 2022

The Bank of England boss raised rates to 1% to curb high inflation and may hike further despite the risk of recession. It’s old-school policymaking as practised by the former Fed chief. The more central banks behave this way, the more likely and severe a global downturn will be.

Fed jumps into field of financial land mines

4 May 2022

The American central bank has little choice but to hike interest rates and cut its balance sheet to fight inflation. But Chair Jay Powell’s moves make the $24 trln U.S. Treasury market more vulnerable to shocks. Bigger future increases could even tip the U.S. into recession.

Australia’s ANZ spoils interest rate party

4 May 2022

Boss Shayne Elliott is downplaying the benefits of central bank action at his $770 bln lender and ditching cost targets because of inflation. It’s a sober message compared to peers like HSBC counting on hikes for a boost. Erring on the side of caution is a better approach.

Capital Calls: U.S. GDP fall masks solid economy

28 Apr 2022

Concise views on global finance: Consumer spending and business investment are resilient amid price hikes.

European banks’ buyback boom faces bad-debt risks

22 Apr 2022

After two lean years, investors had hoped 2022 would bring bumper payouts from Barclays, BNP Paribas, and other big lenders. But the Ukraine war raises the chances of a recession. Rebuilding default buffers, which are slimmer than before the pandemic, may now be the priority.