Information Technology

Investors ignore the law of long-term averages

14 Nov 2024

US stocks are trading at 38 times cyclically adjusted earnings, near the most expensive level ever on that measure. For more than two decades, equities have defied predictions that valuations return to the historical mean. Yet conditions which enabled juicy returns are fading.

Gulf’s AI strategy is built on more than sand

13 Nov 2024

The UAE and Saudi are raising $200 bln for artificial intelligence. A reliance on imported chips means AI superpower status akin to China or the US is unlikely. But even if the region can’t build a ChatGPT-killer, it can carve out a niche to make the exercise worthwhile.

Saudi’s Davos is no longer such a desert

1 Nov 2024

Around 8,000 CEOs and financiers flocked to the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, twice the number at its inception in 2017. Western bosses were keener to talk about artificial intelligence than investing in the kingdom. But Saudi’s progress suggests that may yet change.

Why data centres are a bottleneck for the AI boom

15 Oct 2024

Artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT depend on chips and energy. But a $1 trln rush to build data centres faces constraints on planning and power. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Morgan Laughlin of asset manager PGIM explains the virtual frenzy’s physical limits.

What Masayoshi Son can teach us about investing

11 Oct 2024

The Japanese tech tycoon backed future giants like China’s Alibaba as well as spectacular flops like office-sharing startup WeWork. A new biography likens him to a high-stakes gambler. But Son’s chequered career also reveals some of the skills of a successful venture capitalist.

Ratan Tata leaves more to India than its tycoons

10 Oct 2024

The former Tata chair, who has died aged 86, put a kind face on capitalism, though his bold cross-border M&A and lingering influence hurt the salt-to-steel conglomerate. The new era of industrialists in the country are financially shrewder but less universally admired.

Decoding the puzzle of SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son

8 Oct 2024

The Japanese tycoon shaped global technology while building and losing vast fortunes. How does he keep going? In the first episode of Breakingviews’ new podcast, The Big View, former FT editor Lionel Barber discusses what he uncovered in his biography of Son, ‘Gambling Man’.

Ireland spins global tax mess into $28 bln of gold

8 Oct 2024

Dublin expects a 2024 budget surplus worth 8% of gross national income, thanks to the presence of US companies lured by low levies. It’s evidence that profit shifting lives on despite a landmark OECD deal. The good news for Ireland is that there’s little chance of that changing.

AI is a black hole of bits, chips and power

26 Sep 2024

OpenAI’s ChatGPT kicked off a race to develop ever-more-sophisticated artificial intelligence. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingvews columnists dissect the vast amount of data-crunching bots and power required to feed it, investments that could cost trillions of dollars.

Murdoch’s UK property bid may yet get even sweeter

23 Sep 2024

Rightmove is mulling an improved $8.1 bln offer from Australia’s REA Group, owned by the media tycoon. A chunky premium and other UK refuseniks’ share price slumps are reasons for the listing portal’s board to say yes. But the buyer’s latest bid implies an ability to pay more.

KKR outmanoeuvres Bain in $4 bln Japan showdown

20 Sep 2024

The two buyout giants are tussling over IT specialist Fuji Soft after Bain dangled a potentially higher offer. But KKR has found a clever way to put itself ahead without raising its price. Future buyers should take note: in a hot market like Japan, creative tactics will be needed.

ASML faces bigger problems than China

16 Sep 2024

Fears of US tech export curbs have pummelled the $320 bln Dutch firm’s shares. A longer-term worry is that the growth of AI leads to new technologies, and less need for ASML’s machines that make chips smaller and efficient. That, more than trade wars, may hurt its rich valuation.

Fuji Soft’s $4 bln sale needs a rethink

9 Sep 2024

Shares of the IT software specialist are trading 7% above the price of an agreed takeover offer from buyout firm KKR, and above a higher price its rival sponsor Bain is dangling at the target. After wrestling with a sale, the Japanese company has left too much value on the table.

Telegram’s route to profitability looks dubious

3 Sep 2024

The troubled app’s CEO Pavel Durov runs a lossmaking enterprise. The easiest path to profitability is to echo Facebook, but content moderation costs would further hit Telegram’s finances. The main alternative is to be a messaging app, but WhatsApp implies that’s hard to monetise.

Murdoch’s UK property gambit has a price ceiling

2 Sep 2024

Australian property listings site REA Group is eyeing $6 bln UK peer Rightmove. The News Corp-backed suitor can use cash and higher-valued shares to pay a 30% premium. Beyond that, Rupert Murdoch’s outfit might struggle to combine a successful bid with keeping him in control.

OpenAI’s mooted $100 bln value is relatively sober

29 Aug 2024

The ChatGPT maker may be worth just 16% more in its next share sale than in February’s funding round, according to reports. That looks modest, given AI darling Nvidia’s shares have nearly doubled. Senior departures and competition from rivals like Elon Musk justify a modest bump.

Carry trade chaos charts outlines of next selloff

28 Aug 2024

BIS researchers reckon cascading margin calls helped turn a local Japanese wobble into a global rout in early August, eventually wiping $1 trln off US tech stocks. It’s a similar story to a March 2020 slump and 2022’s UK bond collapse. Worse, the core drivers remain in place.

New EU antitrust tsar has better tools, harder job

27 Aug 2024

The European Union will soon have a new competition commissioner. Margrethe Vestager’s replacement has greater scope to go after Big Tech and Chinese subsidies. But he or she will also have to defend the single market from the assault of EU members’ national industrial policies.

Cyber meltdown points to downsides of efficiency

19 Jul 2024

A software update by $83 bln CrowdStrike grounded flights and disrupted financial markets. That’s possible because businesses work with a small number of providers, seeking lower costs. It supports rich tech valuations, but also heightens the risks of a catastrophic failure.

Meta stake may blur vision for Ray-Ban maker

18 Jul 2024

The $1.2 trln tech giant may buy 5% of eyewear group EssilorLuxottica. It’s a show of confidence in the companies’ smart glasses partnership. But the investment could complicate the Paris-listed firm’s governance and limit its options for working with rivals like Apple.