Inflation

Sunak and Bailey agree on higher UK rates, for now

19 Sep 2023

The PM and the Bank of England chief both favour raising borrowing costs in the short run to curb price growth. But their paths may soon diverge. Downing Street would love easier monetary policy before an election in late 2024. The BoE cannot relent until inflation hits 2%.

ECB’s rear-view policy risks crashing the economy

14 Sep 2023

Fears of stubbornly high consumer prices prompted President Christine Lagarde to push rates to a record 4% on Thursday. Yet the central bank admits inflation will be around the 2% target by 2025. The bloc’s growth is already stagnating. The latest action will worsen its plight.

French iced tea feud will inflame grocer wars

14 Sep 2023

Carrefour is warning customers that suppliers like Unilever are raising prices on drinks and other goods by shrinking packages. The move will keep the government on side in its war against inflation. But smarter shoppers may hunt for bargains and go to discounters Lidl and Aldi.

Erdogan’s orthodoxy creates new economic problems

13 Sep 2023

Turkey’s president finally ditched his love of low interest rates and pledged to curb inflation, currently at 59%. But Tayyip Erdogan still needs growth and will boost spending to get that. Soaring budget deficits and a weak currency will keep the economy under pressure.

Grocers learn lessons of ‘greedflation’ drama

12 Sep 2023

Food-price rises are easing, which is good news for supermarkets that stand accused of profiting from consumer pain. In this Exchange podcast, Ahold Delhaize CEO Frans Muller explains why demand for own-brand goods gives the Dutch group an upper hand in supplier negotiations.

Capital Calls: British wages

12 Sep 2023

Concise views on global finance: UK pay rose by an annualised 8.5% in the three months to July – more than inflation. That’s good for retirees, whose pensions will rise by that amount. But such a hot labour market is likely to prompt the Bank of England to hike rates next week.

Europe faces dirtier inflation fight than US

6 Sep 2023

The euro zone is trying to emulate the United States by avoiding a recession and hefty job losses, despite raising rates. The bloc may only half succeed. Weak activity, scarce credit and higher borrowing costs all point to a downturn. European workers, though, could be spared.

Capital Calls: Lithium M&A

4 Sep 2023

Concise views on global finance: Albemarle’s $4.3 bln sweetened all-cash offer for lithium miner Liontown has financial merit, as well as offering it a handy hedge against Chile’s plan to nationalise resource assets.

Capital Calls: Temps frayed

1 Sep 2023

Concise views on global finance: Despite adding another 187,000 jobs in August, the number of short-term workers such as event staff kept falling in the United States. It’s a sign of a weakening labor market and, history suggests, a recessionary omen.

Bond rout will amplify Powell’s Jackson Hole words

23 Aug 2023

Yields on 10-year US debt are near a 16-year-high. That’s lifting borrowing costs even though the Federal Reserve is likely done with raising rates. More expensive loans may cause a recession. When he speaks on Friday, the Fed chair needs to calm markets without caving into them.

High food prices put populism on India’s table

22 Aug 2023

The cost of onions and tomatoes are soaring ahead of state elections, ramping up pressure for government relief measures. Modi’s fiscal prudence has helped tame inflation and supports his appeal to global investors. The latest crisis could push everyone out of their comfort zone.

ECB core obsession raises risk of policy mistake

17 Aug 2023

Euro zone inflation excluding energy and food costs is rising 5.5%, faster than the headline number. Frankfurt hawks want to keep rates high until that ‘core’ measure nears 2%. But the narrower gauge can lag the main one: focusing on it raises the odds of excessive tightening.

American price elasticity stretched to the limit

10 Aug 2023

At 3.5%, US weekly wages are steadily outpacing inflation for the first time in two years. PepsiCo and P&G, vendors of staples like soda and diapers, have retained power to charge shoppers more. It may be a while, however, before producers of discretionary goods can do so again.

Capital Calls: Robinhood, Influencers, Inflation

3 Aug 2023

Concise views on global finance: The $10 bln brokerage’s first profitable quarter does little to quell growth fears; Adidas and AB InBev are unexpectedly resilient amid an online storm; the Bank of England has a longer inflation fight on its hands than its peers.

Bank of England rate dilemma holds little mystery

2 Aug 2023

Governor Andrew Bailey must decide on Thursday whether to raise borrowing costs by a quarter or half a percentage point. The choice will make little difference to the long-term path of interest rates. Inflation is falling and monetary policy alone cannot boost sluggish UK growth.

Capital Calls: Sequoia, Heineken, Moneyball

31 Jul 2023

Concise views on global finance: The venture capital firm issues a refund to cryptocurrency investors; the $57 bln brewer slashes its operating profit outlook; Steve Cohen’s New York Mets baseball team and its whopping $364 mln payroll is a mess, but in sports beta is the alpha.

Lagarde hides velvet policy in iron talk

27 Jul 2023

After lifting borrowing costs to a record high, the ECB president sounded tough on inflation to persuade markets interest rates will stay elevated. But she also hinted the central bank could pause. Investors can prepare for a less aggressive monetary stance.

Inflation dip puts central bankers in a pickle

27 Jul 2023

The Federal Reserve and ECB once again hiked interest rates. Yet US price rises are easing with few signs of economic pain. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how this phenomenon, dubbed ‘immaculate disinflation’, complicates what policymakers do next.

‘Immaculate disinflation’ places Fed in purgatory

25 Jul 2023

Inflation is falling towards the US central bank’s 2% target without a recession or job losses. History and economic theory suggested such a feat was impossible. Doubts over conventional thinking leave policymakers in a bind over the next stage of their fight to rein in prices.

Unilever new broom’s best sweep is towards Asia

25 Jul 2023

The $137 bln Dove shampoo maker hiked prices without losing many sales in the first half. Yet falling European volumes and limited scope for structural tinkering make it hard for new CEO Hein Schumacher to boost margins. His best hope is to bulk up in his strongest region.