Inflation

Euro rally will only speed its own reversal

21 Jul 2017

The single currency has hit a two-year high against the U.S. dollar. That will depress import prices when inflation is still too low. Any hint that a stronger exchange rate will prompt the European Central Bank to leave monetary policy loose for longer will push it down again.

Central banks have no choice but to keep the faith

20 Jul 2017

ECB chief Mario Draghi and Bank of Japan boss Haruhiko Kuroda have spent trillions of euros and yen without generating much inflation. Nor is it clear when a pick-up in growth will feed through into prices. Yet they are obliged to insist their policies will work eventually.

Inflation gives Bank of England a summer reprieve

18 Jul 2017

Prices rose just 2.6 pct in June, easing the pressure on the central bank to hike rates. That gives it a bit more time to gauge the extent of any Brexit-induced slowdown. When it comes to normalising monetary policy, Britain is shuffling towards the back of the queue.

Hadas: Fear not, you can get economics right

12 Jul 2017

The dismal science struggles to explain such basic issues as persistent disinflation, lingering post-crisis trauma and rising inequality. Unsuitable methodology is the primary culprit. A new “Blackfriars School" can help by asking better questions about what’s really going on.

GIC’s shrinking returns add to Singapore’s gloom

10 Jul 2017

The state fund delivered one of its worst performances since 2001. With geopolitical risks on the rise, the outlook is depressing too. Singapore's challenges investing overseas compound the mood at home as the city's first family feud in an ugly public squabble.

Draghi’s hints have more clout than Yellen’s deeds

28 Jun 2017

ECB chief Mario Draghi had more market impact by alluding to higher rates than Fed Chair Janet Yellen did by hiking them two weeks ago. That fits a recent pattern: central bankers who have yet to tighten policy are more apt to upset expectations – and that’s what moves prices.

Political mess puts Bank of England on the spot

14 Jun 2017

Governor Mark Carney is not raising rates in response to a spike in inflation since it’s probably temporary and wages remain subdued. However, Britain’s fragile government will probably loosen fiscal policy. Though bond yields remain low, investors are showing signs of nerves.

Modi’s India can ride out giant tax reform

13 Jun 2017

The nation is ill-prepared for the July 1 rollout of a fiddly new goods and services tax. Yet Premier Modi’s recent money experiment shows India can handle significant disruption. And for all its flaws, the tax overhaul will smooth the way to more efficient, less corrupt economy.

Hadas: Misbehaving wages keep economists baffled

7 Jun 2017

Conventional economic theory says wages start to rise when labour markets tighten. It isn’t happening in the U.S., Britain, Japan or Germany. Many semi-plausible excuses and partial explanations have not solved the mystery. That leaves central bankers in a quandary.

Mark Carney’s inflation fight hits close to home

2 Jun 2017

Bank of England support staff are threatening to strike over a sub-inflation pay rise. Across the UK economy, rising prices are squeezing incomes. This hits the least well-off the hardest. But it would be hard for the BoE governor to undermine his efforts to keep prices in check.

Zimbabwe takes monetary lunacy to the next level

22 May 2017

The African state suffered hyperinflation in 2007 after paying bills by printing its own currency. A decade on, it is doing so by printing U.S. dollars instead. The idea of conjuring foreign currency from nowhere with the tap of a keyboard sounds too good to be true – and is.

Britain’s joyless job boom is nothing to celebrate

17 May 2017

A record three of every four working-age Britons is employed. But prices are rising faster than wages, and a post-Brexit crackdown on immigration threatens to limit further expansions in the workforce. That makes declining productivity an even bigger cause for alarm.

Tesco customer-first strategy will chafe investors

12 Apr 2017

The grocer had its first full year of like-for-like UK sales growth in seven years. Boss Dave Lewis hopes to shield shoppers from rising prices, but not crush suppliers. The risk is that he has to fund that plan with the spoils of Tesco’s $4.6 bln purchase of wholesaler Booker.

Markets can ease Bank of England inflation dilemma

21 Mar 2017

Prices rose 2.3 pct in February, surpassing the central bank’s target for the first time since 2013. Market rates and sterling rose. This tightening in monetary conditions might allow Governor Mark Carney to defer a hike in official rates until the economic outlook is clearer.

Draghi is tugged towards tricky end of ECB easing

9 Mar 2017

The European Central Bank boss sees less need for more stimulus. It’s hard to say otherwise when inflation is on target and likely to stay near there. Yet Europe’s fragile economy makes ending asset purchases a treacherous task that he will want to postpone as long as possible.

Australia stares down its troublesome twins

8 Mar 2017

The central bank is on hold. But present inaction brushes off future uncertainty. Stubbornly low inflation argues for even lower interest rates, while a bubbly housing market cries out for tighter policy. At least rising U.S. rates should put helpful downward pressure on the currency.

U.S. consumers offer better prop for stock market

15 Feb 2017

American retail sales jumped in January while consumer prices rose at their fastest rate in four years, reflecting solid growth. Optimism about Donald Trump’s economic plans has lifted markets. Sound economic fundamentals are more reliable than the dysfunctional White House.

Euro zone revival carries sting in tail

4 Jan 2017

After years in the doldrums, increased business activity and slightly rising prices are good news for the single currency area. Besides, inflation is still a long way below the European Central Bank target. But a sustained pickup would expose the euro zone's two-speed recovery.

Dollar strength spells more U.S. bond weakness

30 Nov 2016

As emerging market currencies wilt against a resurgent greenback, countries like India are dipping into their war chests to sell dollars. More may have to follow suit. Sooner or later, this will involve selling Treasuries. It’s more bad news for the battered U.S. bond market.

Markets’ 1980s revival looks a flawed throwback

25 Nov 2016

The prospect of tax cuts and higher interest rates in America invite comparison with the era of Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker. U.S. bond yields and the dollar have started soaring, as they did then. But the threat of protectionism makes history an unreliable guide to the future.