Inflation

Turkey’s attack tactics are worst form of defence

27 Mar 2019

Ankara is making it harder to bet against the lira, but overnight swap rates of 700 pct also make hedging prohibitive. Probes by the bank watchdog mean a research drought. Investors will dump Turkish assets rather than stay exposed, especially when experts are opting to keep mum.

“Japanisation” of ECB will blight Europe’s banks

25 Mar 2019

Weak economic activity is raising the chances of the European Central Bank copying its Japanese counterpart, which has kept rates ultra-low for two decades and adopted ever more radical measures to boost inflation. Lenders in Japan show European peers the heavy toll that takes.

Jerome Powell’s boon is Mario Draghi’s bane

11 Feb 2019

Inflation in the U.S. and the euro zone is easing and looks set to subside further. That will help the Federal Reserve boss justify a pause in rate hikes, but is a headache for his European Central Bank peer who has yet to tighten monetary policy and has less room to manoeuvre.

U.S. intervention in Venezuela carries retro risk

28 Jan 2019

Uncle Sam is sanctioning state oil firm PDVSA in a bid to spur regime change. President Maduro’s woeful record has united much of the hemisphere in demanding his ouster. But a U.S. history of regional meddling means the Trump administration must avoid arrogance to retain allies.

Venezuela’s Maduro caught in pincer movement

23 Jan 2019

Protesters are demanding the socialist leader’s ouster. Opposition leader Juan Guaidó has, with U.S. blessing, declared himself interim president. But a self-inflicted wound will get Maduro in the end: By tanking oil output, he robbed himself of a key means of clinging to power.

Fed hike leaves Powell exposed in multiple ways

19 Dec 2018

The U.S. central bank raised rates despite criticism from President Trump. Slowing growth and bearish markets will only complicate its task going forward. The chairman will give more public talks in 2019 just as it gets harder to offer guidance. It could be a bumpy ride.

Rodrigo Duterte’s toughest foe may be inflation

21 Sep 2018

The Filipino strongman finds himself under pressure from quickly rising prices for fuel, rice and more. The weaker peso and the president’s ill-timed tax overhaul are factors. The central bank, late to recognise the scale of the issue, could help with an aggressive rate hike.

Turkey’s outbreak of common sense has limits

13 Sep 2018

The central bank has hiked rates more than markets expected, a welcome sign of independence after attacks by President Erdogan. The move may avoid a currency crisis, but Ankara’s political and economic vulnerabilities endure. And tensions between bank and state may get worse.

Guest view: Real rates matter more than inversion

13 Sep 2018

An inverted U.S. yield curve, with short-term interest rates higher than long-term ones, is seen as a recession warning. Myron Scholes and Ash Alankar of Janus Henderson Investments argue that monetary policymakers should worry more about the excess of yields over inflation.

Spectre of the late 1930s haunts Ray Dalio

12 Sep 2018

The Bridgewater founder made positive returns in 2008 when few other asset managers did. Today, he tells Breakingviews, he worries about the U.S. deficit and debt pressures that could soon go critical. The risk of populism and conflict sounds eerily like the pre-war years.

Indonesia can best defend rupiah by staying calm

6 Sep 2018

An emerging markets rout has pushed the rupiah to its weakest since the 1998 Asian crisis. Policymakers, who have until now been laudably proactive, appear rattled. But threats against speculators are less helpful than higher interest rates and reforms that encourage investment.

Virtuous Macri circle turns vicious for Argentina

30 Aug 2018

The pro-market leader of Latin America’s No. 3 economy has been laying the basis for long-term prosperity. But inflation, drought and soured investor sentiment threaten his efforts. A new run on the peso, and desperate rate hikes, make a return of his Peronist nemeses more likely.

Venezuela’s Maduro rearranges economy’s deckchairs

20 Aug 2018

The president’s plan to devalue the bolivar, peg it to an obscure state-backed cryptocurrency and raise the minimum wage will widen the already gaping hole in the OPEC member’s finances. Promised fuel-price hikes, if botched, could send his socialist government to the seabed.

Erdogan opens Turkish lira to new line of attack

6 Aug 2018

The currency hit a record low against the dollar after the United States said it was reviewing Turkey’s duty-free access to its markets. President Tayyip Erdogan has alienated investors. The tougher he talks to the world’s largest economy, the more they’ll punish Turkish assets.

India central bank doubles down on inflation fight

1 Aug 2018

The Reserve Bank of India raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point even though manufacturing activity slowed in July. The hike may hamper economic growth but removes doubts about policymakers’ commitment to a relatively new inflation mandate. The trade-off is worthwhile.

Trumponomics flirts with more debt and inequality

31 Jul 2018

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin wants to cut capital-gains tax bills by accounting for inflation. It’s sensible to assess the true value of costs and profit. But it’d mostly benefit the wealthy and add to what may be a $1.1 trln deficit in 2019. It also smacks of self-interest.

Bank of Japan’s trial balloon shot down on runway

23 Jul 2018

Bond yields and the yen rose after Reuters reported the central bank was debating whether to scale back monetary stimulus. The move would be good for bank investors. But the scale of the market reaction and economic reality will make it hard for Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to act.

Turkey’s FX rot demands radical measures

23 May 2018

A massive one-off rate rise is the least it will take to halt the lira’s accelerating slide to new record lows against the dollar. Even then, investors might still fear President Tayyip Erdogan’s monetary policy meddling. Capital controls would then grow more likely.

Maduro election win will soon be his loss

17 May 2018

Securing another term as Venezuela’s president in Sunday’s poll is almost a foregone conclusion. But the country’s collapsing oil output may finally mean Nicolas Maduro’s days in power are numbered. Successors will face the mammoth task of rebuilding the economy he has trashed.

Mark Carney may flummox markets again

10 May 2018

The Bank of England chief’s latest comments made investors doubt he will tighten monetary policy this year. Such scepticism is overdone. The economy doesn’t have to grow very fast to generate inflation and the jobless rate is very low. Rate expectations could shift once more.