Immigration

Review: Why Brexit will ultimately please nobody

15 Dec 2017

Britons voted to leave the EU for myriad and conflicting reasons, according to “Brexit and British Politics”. It’s hard to see a settlement that addresses them all. The risk is that voters see Brexit as another betrayal by politicians, fuelling the disaffection that caused it.

Europe poorly placed for Austria’s rightward drift

16 Oct 2017

The far-right Freedom Party scored well in the country’s election and may enter government. It has been in power before. However, its presence could make Europe’s immigration problem harder to manage, and further integration harder to agree. Centrifugal forces have not gone away.

Trump’s petty fight upsets art of the tax deal

9 Oct 2017

The U.S. president’s relationship with Republican lawmaker Bob Corker soured further during a Twitter argument. Yet the Tennessean’s support is critical to push tax reform in the Senate, where the GOP has a slim majority. The squabbling endangers a plan that is already under attack.

Dream of U.S. job surge is partly in Trump’s hands

1 Sep 2017

Although August’s 156,000 new positions fell short of forecasts, the trend is steady. Yet the president may soon subject nearly 800,000 children of illegal immigrants to deportation. Some 30,000 could lose jobs each month; GDP would suffer too. That’s an avoidable hit to growth.

Merkel matters less than her next coalition allies

18 Aug 2017

The German chancellor is poised to win a fourth term in September’s vote. However, Angela Merkel may well be forced to govern with a small majority in partnership with the Free Democrats. That party’s trenchant calls for even more austerity are bad news for Germany and Europe.

Britain tries Trojan Horse trade tactic in Ireland

17 Aug 2017

The EU wants the Northern Ireland border issue resolved before the UK’s wider exit terms can be agreed. New proposals from London effectively couch Britain’s trade agenda in concern for the peace process. Having Dublin onside raises the chances of Britain getting what it wants.

Germany can jump growth hurdle courtesy of Brexit

27 Jun 2017

Europe’s biggest economy is expanding so quickly that there’s a growing dearth of skilled labour. The shortage may be severe enough to depress the long-term growth rate, the Bundesbank says. One way to plug the gap is to attract EU workers who no longer feel welcome in Britain.

Brexit assurances give EU citizens scant comfort

26 Jun 2017

The government has told Europeans they will not be forced to leave the United Kingdom. That’s welcome. But many grey areas will depend on the judgement of overworked bureaucrats. Worse still, any pledges could be rendered invalid if Britain crashes out of the EU without a deal.

Markets call Trump’s bluff with Indian IT rally

23 Jun 2017

The value of the top outsourcing firms has risen about 9 pct, or $12 bln, since the election of U.S. President Donald Trump. Investors have reason to doubt his hard talk on immigration, and to believe Premier Narendra Modi can help his counterpart see the mutual benefits.

Guest view: U.S. economy needs robust immigration

21 Jun 2017

Labor shortages and weak consumption reflect an aging population, argue Daniel Vajdich of risk consultancy Yorktown Solutions and investor Michael Trachtenberg of Union Place Partners. Japan's experience, they say, is precisely why U.S. lawmakers should embrace foreigners.

Trump’s CEOs do more listening than influencing

20 Jun 2017

The U.S. president’s hobnobbing with corporate chiefs is largely a one-way street. Executives can claim some impact on China policy but not yet on immigration, and they got stiffed on climate. The White House forums are still useful for their insight into administration thinking.

Breakdown: Britain’s precarious pre-Brexit pact

16 Jun 2017

A Conservative pact with Northern Ireland’s DUP party is focusing minds on what Brexit means for the UK’s only EU land border. It also rules out a potential fix: EEA membership. The upside of their odd coupling is a more frank debate about challenges that lie ahead.

Northern Ireland pact bad for peace and UK voters

12 Jun 2017

British Prime Minister Theresa May's attempt to form a government with Northern Ireland's DUP could come at a high price. True, the party is pro-Brexit and wants to avoid a UK breakup. But taxpayers can expect greater fiscal transfers and more friction in the restive region.

UK Labour Party’s soft Brexit would still be hard

26 May 2017

The opposition is gaining in polls ahead of Britain’s June 8 vote. Leader Jeremy Corbyn is more pro-immigration than Tory Theresa May. Yet he is less pro-EU than he looks, and is less likely to be business-friendly – which could allow European negotiators to be tougher.

Britain gears up for immigration self-harm

15 May 2017

Theresa May is likely to stick with a vow to reduce annual net migration below 100,000, despite failing to hit it so far. The election gives the prime minister a golden opportunity to show the UK will keep growing post-Brexit. Renewing the pledge would apply an unhelpful brake.

Chinese investor visas deserve extreme vetting

8 May 2017

The family of Donald Trump's son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner, apologized for using his name in a real-estate pitch in Beijing. The deal offers visas in exchange for $500,000 of investment. In questioning immigration, Trump hasn’t raised the EB-5 program. He should.

French savers are a good bulwark against Le Pen

3 May 2017

Marine Le Pen’s anti-euro rhetoric will be a liability in Sunday’s election. Some undecided voters may share the far-right leader’s distrust of the EU. But ditching the single currency would be punitive for a country with the euro zone’s third-highest savings rate.

French vote may spring one more plot twist

28 Apr 2017

Presidential favourite Emmanuel Macron enjoys a huge poll lead over far-right Marine Le Pen. But the margin could be eroded by any missteps, his rival’s media savvy, and what the hard-left does. With a week to go, there is still time for the election to rattle financial markets.

European market reboot depends on more than Macron

24 Apr 2017

Stocks and the euro rose sharply amid relief that the French centrist made it to the second round of presidential elections. The gap between Gallic and German bond yields remains wider than six months ago, though. That reflects lingering political risks to the single currency.

Winning French presidency is easy part for Macron

23 Apr 2017

Projections show the centrist reformer will face the far-right Marine Le Pen in the election's second round. Macron is the clear favourite – a relief for investors who feared the rise of anti-EU candidates. They risk ignoring how hard he will find it to deliver economic change.