Immigration

Trump trades will run into Trump reality

14 Nov 2024

The president-elect’s victory sparked wild euphoria in markets. Now comes the realization that tariffs and immigration crackdowns threaten major costs, including the return of inflation. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the globe-spanning concerns.

Far-right’s vote win is a loss for German economy

2 Sep 2024

PM Olaf Scholz’s coalition parties got trounced in regional elections, with the extreme right-wing AfD winning more than 30% in Thuringia and Saxony. That could prompt Berlin to double down on fiscal discipline and tighten immigration rules, deepening the country’s growth woes.

Raw economics will trump migration’s sour politics

2 Sep 2024

Nearly 900 mln people would like to live in another country, but most can’t move due to political and social opposition to foreigners. These attitudes are hard to shift. But deepening demographic crises mean a migration-fuelled boost to labour supply is critical for growth.

Immigration benefits outweigh US border troubles

5 Jun 2024

President Joe Biden is under pressure to solve the problem of inbound surges at the southern border. But foreign-born workers fill gaps left by retiring boomers, an advantage over countries like China and South Korea. The rebound in newcomers provides a long-term economic boon.

Europe risks falling into Levant’s powder keg

20 Feb 2024

War in Gaza is worsening already dire economic conditions in Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. Western aid is unlikely to solve their deep problems. Despite efforts to outsource its migration issues, the European Union may find some displaced by a protracted conflict reach its borders.

Ignoring migration’s roots will cost the West dear

12 Feb 2024

Politicians in the US and Europe are devoting much energy to stopping illegal migrants. But this will achieve little unless they also tackle the drivers of migration: poverty, conflict, and climate change. Otherwise, politics in the rich world will become increasingly toxic.

Meloni’s Italian job is a lesson for EU’s right

26 Sep 2023

In her first year, the PM pledged Rome’s commitment to NATO and fiscal discipline. That may be a template for nationalist parties trying to copy her success. Yet she also wasted time on culture wars. As growth stalls and immigration soars, the rest of her term will be tougher.

Workforce shifts stress need for migration rethink

9 May 2023

A Trump-era rule barring migrants seeking US asylum at the Mexico border ends this week. Arrivals are expected to double. With an aging US workforce and a job market in desperate need of workers, legislators have the opportune time to finally fix broken immigration policy.

The fog in the English Channel is clearing a bit

16 Jan 2023

Britain won’t rejoin the EU soon, despite voters’ regrets over Brexit. But if the two sides resolve a Northern Ireland dispute there could be progress on topics such as climate, foreign policy and financial services. Much may have to wait for a new UK government, says Hugo Dixon.

Toronto can teach aspiring tech hubs some lessons

9 May 2022

Many places try to replicate aspects of Silicon Valley. Favorable immigration rules and cheaper labor costs have made the Canadian city a strong contender. Some of these advantages may not endure. But success in luring giants like Meta Platforms means that may not matter for now.

Strong U.S. jobs are blessing and curse for Fed

1 Apr 2022

The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, near pre-pandemic levels. Dining out is back, and even travel is returning to normal. That all gives the central bank room to fight inflation. But employers are still short of workers, and continued robust hiring may make price pressures worse.

On the Ukraine refugee crisis, watch Canada

22 Mar 2022

The country that claims the second-largest Ukrainian diaspora has already done more than its southern neighbor to help those fleeing war. Unlike trade, immigration is one area where Ottawa has clout. Canada could prove an example to countries far removed from the crisis.

Refugee bonds can keep humanitarian corridors open

11 Mar 2022

Europe says 7 mln Ukrainians may flee Russia’s invasion. The 2015 refugee crisis showed migrants can boost workforces and economies. But integrating new arrivals is expensive. Impact bonds can pay for the upfront resettlement burden, limiting quarrels between host nations.

Canada’s labor paradox has global resonance

1 Mar 2022

The proportion of Canadians in work or seeking jobs is nearly back up to pre-pandemic levels and a central bank rate hike is likely this week. Yet firms are finding it hard to fill vacancies. This ominous sign suggests governments will have to do more to fix labor shortages.

The Exchange: Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg

21 Dec 2021

With an election looming early next year, the Liberal Party’s deputy leader discusses everything from booster shots to Big Tech, climate change to China, immigration to inflation, and more. He tells Jeffrey Goldfarb how his country can overcome the many economic challenges ahead.

Nobel rewards rigour in messy real-life tests

11 Oct 2021

The three winners of the economics prize aimed to spot cause and effect when actual events create experiments that lack lab-style controls. David Card’s work on wages and immigration, in particular, is newly relevant as workers seek higher pay and dislocations like Brexit unfold.

Australia’s border strength morphs into weakness

28 Apr 2021

Strictly banning outsiders has been a big factor in stopping the spread of Covid-19. Fiscal stimulus and low rates have helped compensate, but can’t replace the annual 1% growth delivered by immigrants. Absent bold policy changes, the age of economic miracles may be past.

HK migrants likely to give UK only a tiny boost

6 Oct 2020

The British government thinks 200,000 Hong Kongers will take up the former colonist’s offer of legal residence. That would add less than 1% to GDP, only a rounding error in comparison to the likely post-Brexit pain from lost EU migrants, and possible retaliation from Beijing.

Swiss vote reinforces EU’s tough Brexit stance

28 Sep 2020

The Alpine nation reversed its opposition to EU immigration in a referendum, avoiding a messy standoff with its top export market. Broad economic concerns trumped popular angst. As negotiations with the United Kingdom intensify, the outcome will encourage Brussels to stand firm.

UK is lab rat for ill-timed migrant experiment

19 Feb 2020

A new immigration system will from next year prioritise skilled workers. Ideally, this would boost pay. But companies may struggle to pass costs to consumers and can’t expand without the right staff. Brakes on growth will be the last thing Britain needs if EU trade talks sour.