Government Debt

Western rival to Belt and Road has much to prove

25 Sep 2023

The G7’s $600 bln plan to compete with China’s flagging investment push has launched splashy railway and energy schemes in Africa and Asia. But governments and private investors haven’t put up much cash. It’s also unclear how poor countries will avoid debt traps, says Hugo Dixon.

Uncle Sam risks recession by a thousand cuts

22 Sep 2023

A government stoppage would shave a sliver from US economic expansion. Restarting student loan payments will have a similar effect. Add striking autoworkers, high oil prices and costly mortgages, and 0.8% growth forecast for the fourth quarter and 0.5% in early 2024 look shaky.

Ukraine war gives wings to India bond index debut

22 Sep 2023

JPMorgan will add the country’s sovereign debt to its emerging market index, easing concentration issues following Russia’s exclusion. It drags foreigners into a $1 trln market. New Delhi sees new gains from opening but it may have to bend on taxes and more to win wider backing.

China’s growth is buried under great wall of debt

13 Sep 2023

Local government investment arms owe $11 trln to creditors including state banks. That’s hobbling the world’s second-largest economy. Beijing needs to force asset sales and let some fail. It will be painful but relying on consumers who are unwilling to spend is a dead end.

Flood insurance swamps US government

11 Sep 2023

A federal scheme to back policies for water-logged homes is set to be renewed. Failing to do that would worsen a housing shortage. But the program is already laden with debt. Fixes like flood-prevention infrastructure can lower costs for the government and homebuyers alike.

Bond rout will amplify Powell’s Jackson Hole words

23 Aug 2023

Yields on 10-year US debt are near a 16-year-high. That’s lifting borrowing costs even though the Federal Reserve is likely done with raising rates. More expensive loans may cause a recession. When he speaks on Friday, the Fed chair needs to calm markets without caving into them.

US soft landing means bumpy ride for bonds

8 Aug 2023

Yields on 10-year government debt are near a 5-year high even though inflation is falling without a recession or huge job losses. Fixed-income traders are right to worry. Better growth may fuel more price rises, keeping rates elevated and deepening Washington’s fiscal problems.

Capital Calls: AMC’s meme investor backlash

18 Jul 2023

Concise views on global finance: A new lawsuit looking to force a shareholder meeting adds to growing antagonism between $2 bln movie theater chain AMC and the retail investors who buoyed its business during the pandemic. For boss Adam Aron, meme stock stardom comes at a cost.

China’s world banks are geopolitical victims

15 Jun 2023

Canada suspended activity at the AIIB after a senior employee claimed it has become an instrument of the Chinese Communist Party. The Beijing-based infrastructure lender tried to play by global rules, but multilateral funding models are struggling to evade diplomatic tensions.

Treasury buyers live for the moment, unfortunately

1 Jun 2023

Markets tend to brush off near-disasters when it comes to pricing U.S. debt. Yields fell as Congress struck a deal to avoid default, even though the Treasury is prepping a borrowing spree and rates are staying stubbornly high. Investors’ fingers remain firmly stuck in their ears.

Overhauling US debt limit is an easy no-brainer

31 May 2023

Congress is again set to raise the cap on the country’s borrowing mere days before a default. President Joe Biden isn’t willing to abolish the ceiling, but every creditor has limits. A soft limit on the deficit, which balances the budget when crossed, would be a better safeguard.

ECB’s crisis tool works best if it’s never used

30 May 2023

The European Central Bank is touting its powers to buy sovereign bonds if they come under attack from the market. That has kept traders in check, so far. The trick for Frankfurt officials is to convincingly threaten to deploy emergency measures without ever having to.

Capital Calls: US debt deal

30 May 2023

Concise views on global finance: The pending deal for raising the debt ceiling would shift $20 billion out of the government’s tax collector. The move eases some short-term budget pressures, but could surrender a seven-fold payoff down the road.

Biden gives little, gets less in debt ceiling deal

28 May 2023

The White House reached an agreement with Republicans to raise the debt limit for two years. The deal will avoid a big knock on Biden’s reelection plans, but the victories end there. Spending caps and social-aid restrictions give Democrats little else to cheer.

Economic stability hangs on US love of BBQ

26 May 2023

The US government is racing to ink a deal to avoid default ahead of the long weekend that marks the start of summer. Agreeing on how to handle the debt ceiling would relieve US creditors and calm markets. The rush will almost certainly leave big problems unfixed.

Macron’s neglect is France’s main fiscal problem

25 May 2023

National debt is above 110% of GDP and will keep rising if the government’s rosy forecasts don’t pan out. Austerity isn’t the answer now, but the president doesn’t seem interested in crafting a long-term plan to cut indebtedness. That will hit the economy and future generations.

Debt ceiling crash will have few victims

25 May 2023

President Joe Biden is trying to hammer out a deal with Republican lawmakers to ensure the United States can keep its lights on. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain how even if the world’s largest economy defaults on its debts the damage will be limited.

Greek vote can bear gifts for debt investors

22 May 2023

A big win by Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Sunday’s polls makes him odds-on to stay as Greece’s premier. That will help the $200 bln economy continue its rebound after crises in the 2010s. Forthcoming investment-grade status is another reason for Greek sovereign debt to keep rallying.

Benched legislation has hidden costs

19 May 2023

Washington is laser-focused on raising the debt ceiling. But as spending debates rage, Congress’s back burner is getting crowded. Pending legislation, like one that secures bank services for cannabis businesses, enjoy broad support, but the window for easy passage is closing.

Debt conundrum gives Italy weak hand in EU talks

18 May 2023

The pandemic and the war have taken the country’s indebtedness off investors’ radar. Yet high interest rates, slower growth and a budget deficit mean Rome will struggle to cut its fiscal burden. That makes it harder for PM Giorgia Meloni to ask for lenient European rules.