Government Debt

Theresa May has a way out of UK pension pickle

28 Apr 2017

The prime minister is dithering over whether to keep guaranteeing above-inflation hikes to pensioners. The triple-lock is nonsensical, inequitable and unfit for an era of Brexit and stagnant wages. May has the political capital to adopt a fairer single-lock, tied to earnings.

UK proves itself a so-so green energy investor

20 Apr 2017

The government has sold its Green Investment Bank to Macquarie for 2.3 bln pounds. A 5 pct annual return over five years gives taxpayers some benefit. But as with other recent public sales, the risk is private capital reaps benefits that could have stayed with the public purse.

South Africa’s slow burn cuts chances of quick fix

6 Apr 2017

President Jacob Zuma seems to be doing his best to get foreign investors to dump domestic assets. That may not lead to a sudden stop: only a small minority face being forced sellers. The bad news is that this could slow the process to replace him with a more responsible leader.

Markets snooze their way to Le Pen showdown

5 Apr 2017

French government bond prices suggest a lower probability of far-right Marine Le Pen winning the presidential election than bookies do. Markets may be too calm about the disruptive potential of voter apathy, or a left-wing alliance. That limits their ability to reassure.

Latin America needs leaders who can say “adios”

4 Apr 2017

A reluctance to cede power is a common failing in a region known for strongmen and weak institutions. Protesters who torched Paraguay’s Congress over the issue last week had the right idea, if wrong method. Rulers’ refusal to let go clouds prospects in Ecuador and Venezuela too.

Britain sells mortgages, buys small Brexit hedge

31 Mar 2017

Selling 11.8 billion pounds of former Bradford & Bingley mortgages to Blackstone and Prudential will cut the UK’s national debt without leaving a loss. The buyers are showing confidence in the UK economy. The seller is shoring itself up in case such confidence proves misplaced.

South Africa’s real problem: credibility downgrade

28 Mar 2017

President Jacob Zuma's abrupt recalling of his respected finance minister hit domestic assets. The latest spat could speed a downgrade of the state's sovereign debt, although much of that appears priced in. The greater damage would be to South Africa’s institutional solidity.

Market angst about France infects whole of EU

17 Mar 2017

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen has promised to reshape French ties with the European Union if elected president. That would be an existential test for the whole bloc. Currency options prices show investors have rarely been so anxious about the EU-wide impact of a single event.

Do-nothing UK budget belies big risks ahead

8 Mar 2017

Finance Minister Philip Hammond revealed minimal changes to tax and spending. His prudent message makes sense, but contrasts with the large and unpredictable economic consequences of leaving the European Union. It won’t take much for these to knock deficit reduction off course.

What Christine Lagarde might say to Marine Le Pen

28 Feb 2017

The presidential candidate wants France to quit Europe’s single currency. The possibility that she might win is already spooking markets. Breakingviews imagines the advice Le Pen might get from her compatriot, International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde.

Cox: Swamp is another name for checks and balances

16 Feb 2017

Donald Trump vowed to drain the capital's metaphorical fens. He has also redefined the objective from ridding Washington of its mosquito-like lobbyists to avoiding getting bogged down in a governance morass. The founders intended the separation of powers to be a useful swamp thing.

French corporate debt immunity to Le Pen will fade

15 Feb 2017

Even the slim possibility that far-right leader Marine Le Pen might lead France out of the euro zone has pushed up government bond yields. By contrast, corporate debt has suffered relatively little damage. Savvy investors will make this anomaly disappear soon.

Treasury pick can only stare at (debt) ceiling

10 Feb 2017

As Steve Mnuchin awaits Senate confirmation, the clock is ticking on the $20 trln U.S. borrowing limit. Raising the cap has become a struggle in recent years. It'll be a big first test for the Treasury secretary, especially considering Donald Trump's blasé remarks about default.

Greece is in a mess but not at the brink

3 Feb 2017

The government, its European creditors and the IMF are all being unreasonable in their own way over a bailout needed by July. The most sensible option would be for the IMF to withdraw. More likely is that if a compromise can't be found, the ruling Syriza party calls an election.

Europe’s “whatever it takes” becomes “what next?”

2 Feb 2017

Bond yields are rising as the end of money-printing looms. The return of a crisis like the one that prompted ECB President Mario Draghi's pledge to save the euro zone is unlikely. Yet as investors focus on political risk and debt, governments will face tougher choices.

French elections beat Brexit for market disquiet

30 Jan 2017

The Gallic vote is worrying investors more than Britain leaving the EU. It now costs over a third more to insure against a French default than a UK one, though rating firms see little chance of either going bust. It's the scope to weaken its currency that gives Britain an edge.

Kuwait’s strength could be a weakness

17 Jan 2017

The oil-rich sheikhdom is planning its first dollar debt sale. It should be a hit: Kuwait has a good fiscal record and vast foreign assets. Yet other Gulf states are weaker, raising the risk of devaluations or euro zone-style bailouts. The strongest may end up bearing the burden.

Hadas: The new autocratic economics is still fuzzy

12 Jan 2017

Muscular leaders have diverging concerns. Oil-dependent Putin does little to promote Russian growth. China’s Xi puts expansion above financial stability, while Turkey’s Erdogan risks the economy for political strength. The common factor is state control, greased with corruption.

Maduro will survive, just, on Venezuelan tightrope

28 Dec 2016

The economy is a wreck, but the country's inept leader has probably done enough to avoid being forced from office in 2017, unless by fellow Chavistas. A bond swap and army-led food programs helped. His gutting of institutions, though, risks violence that may yet be his undoing.

Renzi has time for one last gamble

8 Dec 2016

Despite resigning as Italy’s prime minister after losing a referendum, there’s a way back for Matteo Renzi: a quick election. That could pit him against the 5-Star Movement, which wants a vote on the euro. Renzi may still have enough support to win, but would need to move fast.