Government Debt

Bank of Japan can hold out as Western yields rise

7 Jul 2017

The central bank underlined its determination to keep 10-year yields close to zero by offering to buy unlimited bonds. The BOJ has the tools, market dominance and motivation to hold firm. Tighter policy in the West should help Japan by weakening the yen and importing inflation.

Draghi’s taper tizzy is sign of dangers to come

29 Jun 2017

Comments by ECB chief Mario Draghi drove up bond yields and the euro, despite later protestations that markets had misread him. The ado owes more to investor complacency than fuzzy talk. It highlights traders’ twitchiness and the challenges in withdrawing ultra-loose policy.

Draghi’s hints have more clout than Yellen’s deeds

28 Jun 2017

ECB chief Mario Draghi had more market impact by alluding to higher rates than Fed Chair Janet Yellen did by hiking them two weeks ago. That fits a recent pattern: central bankers who have yet to tighten policy are more apt to upset expectations – and that’s what moves prices.

U.S. GOP tries version of “extend and pretend”

26 Jun 2017

The mantra used to defer the reckoning on dodgy loans has come to Congress. Some lawmakers want to extend the 10-year budget horizon to at least 20 years. That would allow bigger tax cuts and deficits in the near term, but would be as irresponsible as the worst of Wall Street.

U.S. debt ceiling’s only value is as a warning light

23 Jun 2017

The Treasury wants lawmakers to raise the $20 trln cap on federal borrowing or risk a default. The 100-year-old idea of the limit is no longer practical, especially when Congress won't link it with budgeted outlays. Still, the ceiling is a symbol of America's growing debt burden.

Saudi Aramco IPO is exercise in reverse valuation

22 Jun 2017

The oil producer is worth $2 trillion, say its owners. The question might not be whether that valuation is right, but what Aramco’s owners and bankers will have to do to get it. A Breakingviews calculator suggests this will be a stretch of reason.

Germany’s euro-bond allergy will be hard to cure

13 Jun 2017

France’s pro-European president, Emmanuel Macron, has given new hope to advocates of joint euro zone debt. But expect Teutonic resistance. Europe’s biggest economy is loath to give an implicit bailout guarantee to its own regions so will hardly extend one to other countries.

Ireland pitches AIB float with a dose of realism

13 Jun 2017

The Irish government will sell 25 percent of the nationalised lender for between 3.9 and 4.9 euros per share. The midpoint values the bank above domestic rivals but at a discount to European peers. That’s a fair reflection of its bad loan book and domestic economic risks.

Lebenthal marks end of two eras on Wall Street

8 Jun 2017

It was 1925 when Alexandra's grandparents opened their municipal-bonds shop. Her father James and TV ads gave it renown in the 1970s. She's now exiting as CEO after a lack of scale impeded efforts to revive the firm post-crisis. Family offices, not brokerages, are the new order.

U.S. stocks and bonds are in economic tug-of-war

7 Jun 2017

Bullish equity investors have pushed the S&P 500 to new highs despite soft data and fading hopes for business friendly policies. With yields tumbling even as a new rate hike looms, fixed income is more attuned to a possible downturn. When the stories converge, it won't be pretty.

Europe is a fertile petri dish for GDP-linked debt

6 Jun 2017

Linking national debt payments to economic performance could help countries cope with downturns. There are many obstacles. Bad governments might fiddle statistics; good ones may be reluctant to pay a premium for flexibility. Even so, the euro zone is a good place to test the idea.

China’s growth obsession fosters collateral fraud

1 Jun 2017

A Reuters report lays bare how loans are often backed by fake holdings of land or metals. It’s not surprising: the system deliberately enables corner-cutting to boost economic activity. But a lack of trust in asset values could prove traumatic if prices start to fall.

Euro zone “safe” bonds would be anything but

31 May 2017

The European Commission has suggested creating low-risk securities by pooling sovereign bonds. The idea is to reduce banks’ exposure to governments. But risks would still be interconnected. Without a common tax base and joint liability, no pan-euro zone debt can be truly secure.

Goldman steps in avoidable $2.8 bln Venezuela mess

30 May 2017

Money managers at the firm bought oil giant PDVSA’s debt at a big discount, indirectly handing the central bank needed dollars. Investments aren’t necessarily moral choices, but can hit reputations. After trouble in Greece and Malaysia, Goldman ought to have a better nose for it.

Italian early election is least bad option

30 May 2017

Growing political backing for a voting law makes a 2017 election more likely. The new system may produce a weak coalition that would struggle to reform. But it would allow elections to be held before a tough budget stirs up anti-EU sentiment or ECB policy tightening hits growth.

Viewsroom: Trump budgets his way to la-la land

25 May 2017

Basic economics - and decency - fall by the wayside in the administration’s pitch that it can create $2 trln of revenue by cutting $3.6 trln of costs. OPEC and U.S. fields battle for oil supremacy. Zimbabwe invents the zollar. And Bill Ford escapes his CEO’s crash unscathed.

Hadas: Puerto Rico, Greece and bad-faith debt

17 May 2017

Both the U.S. territory and the euro zone laggard have fine beaches, irresponsible governments and a debt crisis. The most just and helpful response to such debacles is to force reckless lenders to write off loans. That’s a hard sell. Thankfully, few sovereigns are so careless.

Euro zone bonds are taboo worth breaking

17 May 2017

Spain wants the bloc’s 19 governments to pool their debt. That idea is likely to be shunned by Germany. Yet mutualisation is happening anyway through bailouts and central bank largesse, and countries are less profligate than they were. Common bonds needn’t mean wayward spending.

German bonds are caught between Mario and Macron

12 May 2017

Euro zone yields have risen in anticipation of tighter policy from ECB President Mario Draghi. But the euro zone’s fragility puts a cap on long-term rates. Changing that would require the kind of common fiscal policy imagined by new French President Emmanuel Macron.

Puerto Rico restructuring will be no day at beach

3 May 2017

Congress gave the U.S. territory access to a form of bankruptcy. Now the board overseeing its finances, encompassing $70 bln of debt, has pressed the button. Creditors will get their day in court, and tidy plans in spreadsheets could end up as warped as in Detroit – or worse.