Government Debt

Trumponomics flirts with more debt and inequality

31 Jul 2018

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin wants to cut capital-gains tax bills by accounting for inflation. It’s sensible to assess the true value of costs and profit. But it’d mostly benefit the wealthy and add to what may be a $1.1 trln deficit in 2019. It also smacks of self-interest.

Predicting U.S. GDP more exciting, more pointless

27 Jul 2018

The U.S. economy grew at a healthy 4.1 percent pace in the second quarter. A surge in exports ahead of retaliatory tariffs helped. Consumer spending, aided by tax cuts, was also a factor. The trade war and fiscal stimulus could result in zig-zagging GDP figures for some time.

Silk Road speed bumps show limit of yuan diplomacy

13 Jul 2018

There is trouble along Beijing's trillion-dollar trade route. From the Maldives to Malaysia, politicians are calling to review deals, fretting over debt and dependence. Domestic politics are driving the backlash, making it tough to turn economic might into lasting influence.

Malaysia taps brakes along China’s Belt and Road

5 Jul 2018

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has suspended work on a $20 bln rail link between his country’s east and west coasts. It’s a rare setback for Beijing's massive infrastructure initiative. The project's importance, though, means Kuala Lumpur can afford to fight for a better deal.

China’s renewable giants can live without handouts

29 Jun 2018

Authorities are pulling state subsidies for solar and wind companies. The shake-out recalls earlier crises, which claimed stars like Suntech. Now, however, cheaper technology and better supporting infrastructure give clean energy champions a chance to thrive on their own.

Debt relief puts floor under Greek bank pains

28 Jun 2018

A government deal with creditors should lower funding costs for Greece’s big four lenders. With bad loans accounting for 48 percent of lending, normality remains a way off. But ending shareholder angst over debt sustainability could be the first step in banks’ rehabilitation.

Greece swaps bailout hell for eternal purgatory

22 Jun 2018

Eight years after seeking financial help Athens can at last support itself, helped by extra euro zone funds and debt relief. But borrowings of over 300 bln euros mean it must maintain a tight budget, and submit to regular scrutiny. Doubts over its debt sustainability will linger.

China starts trading debt for growth

14 Jun 2018

Shadow bank lending slowed sharply in May, and investment growth slipped to just 6.1 pct. For now, Beijing’s target of increasing GDP by 6.5 pct annually is safe. But officials will be thinking about creative ways to keep credit flowing, even as they discourage riskier behaviour.

Argentina’s $50 bln IMF deal has a year to work

8 Jun 2018

President Macri, like Cardinal Mazarin’s preferred generals, has been lucky as well as bold so far in his efforts to fix Latin America’s No. 3 economy. With elections not due until late 2019 and the deal shielding social spending, he has time to beat opponents’ IMF-phobia - just.

Japanese CEOs get new excuse to stop stock-picking

8 Jun 2018

An updated governance code tells boards to run cost-benefit analyses on holding stakes in other listed companies. It’s too much to hope this alone will catalyse disposals and buybacks. But it could help shareholders, such as those at broadcaster TBS, make a case for streamlining.

China’s bond market faces buyer crisis

5 Jun 2018

A crackdown on off-balance sheet wheezes is likely to sap banks' appetite for bonds. They are by far the biggest buyers, so their retreat will hurt prices. Yield-hungry entrants might appreciate higher returns, but the coming liquidity drain could destabilise a rickety market.

Hadas: Market complacency curses debtor countries

31 May 2018

President Erdogan is wrong to claim a sinister “interest rate lobby” has aggravated Turkey’s structural weaknesses. Foolish foreigners have, however, financed unsustainable consumption binges in this and other economies. Remedies range from regulatory nudges to capital controls.

How the EU can help save Italy from itself

31 May 2018

A new radical government will cast doubt over euro membership and inflame migration tensions. Other EU countries could help ease voter discontent by tweaking the bloc’s fiscal rules, and taking more migrants. That won’t be easy, but it beats Italy leaving the single currency.

Dollar rally comes at exquisitely awkward time

30 May 2018

The greenback's recent strength creates a policy headache. If sustained, it’ll reheat real estate, pull capital from emerging markets and complicate Trump's attempts to push U.S. exports. And it’ll buttress the currency’s dominance despite rising doubts about the U.S. government.

Indonesia’s pre-emptive strike sends right signal

30 May 2018

Southeast Asia's largest economy has raised rates for the second time in two weeks. It sends a clear message that the new central bank governor Perry Warjiyo will put a steady currency first. Much of the 25-basis-point hike has been priced in, but timing and tone should reassure.

Only Italy can save itself from self-inflicted woe

29 May 2018

Investors are spooked by the prospect of a eurosceptic government pushing up debt, prompting an exit from the single currency. Contrary to 2011, Italy is the cause of the crisis, rather than a victim. A change of direction depends on voters, not the European Central Bank.

EU sovereign debt fix fails Italian test

24 May 2018

The European Commission wants to make it easier for investors to buy bonds that pool euro zone government debt. It’s part of a plan to reduce banks' exposure to indebted states. Recent Italian worries show such securities might help, but also why they are unlikely to work.

Turkey’s FX rot demands radical measures

23 May 2018

A massive one-off rate rise is the least it will take to halt the lira’s accelerating slide to new record lows against the dollar. Even then, investors might still fear President Tayyip Erdogan’s monetary policy meddling. Capital controls would then grow more likely.

Italy’s next economy minister is the one to watch

22 May 2018

Radical parties have proposed little-known academic Giuseppe Conte to head their government. Yet the economic portfolio matters more for the indebted country’s future. The new minister’s attitude towards the euro will go a long way towards determining investors’ faith in Italy.

Maduro election win will soon be his loss

17 May 2018

Securing another term as Venezuela’s president in Sunday’s poll is almost a foregone conclusion. But the country’s collapsing oil output may finally mean Nicolas Maduro’s days in power are numbered. Successors will face the mammoth task of rebuilding the economy he has trashed.