Government & Agencies

Europe lacks scope for fiery Trump trade riposte

8 Nov 2024

With a self-styled tariff man in the White House, the bloc may face blanket export levies. A vast trade surplus, and reliance on the US for key goods like gas, limit the scope for Brussels to respond in kind. Plan B may be to placate Donald Trump by pledging to boost US imports.

ECB will fail to get out ahead of US trade war

8 Nov 2024

Donald Trump’s return to the White House puts Europe in a bind. With the euro falling, slow growth and likely US tariffs, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde can help by slashing rates to 2.75% in December. But policymakers’ muddled priorities make that unlikely.

German government meltdown has a silver lining

7 Nov 2024

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner after a budget dispute. It’s a bad time for political upheaval in Europe’s biggest economy. But making it more possible to loosen the absurd ‘debt brake’ may give Germany a freer hand on key areas like defence.

Trump 2.0: taxes, tensions, tariffs, turbulence

7 Nov 2024

In a decisive comeback victory for his third White House run, Donald Trump notched gains across a wide set of voters and issues. In this week’s Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate the chaotic consequences now looming worldwide.

Europe is unprepared for the Trump storm

6 Nov 2024

The continent faces tariffs and wavering US defence commitments after the Republican candidate clinched the White House. The bloc’s already sluggish economies will suffer. Meanwhile, divided politics will hinder Europe’s capacity to deal with the shock.

Trump re-election entrenches global instability

6 Nov 2024

The former president beat Kamala Harris to return to the White House. Hopes for tax cuts and deregulation will juice short-term asset values. But his love of tariffs and authoritarian instincts set the US – and world – on a perilous path. Unlike last time, it may not be reversed.

Saudi megafund’s success rests on fuzzy local bets

5 Nov 2024

The kingdom’s $950 bln Public Investment Fund is best known for outlandish construction schemes and flashy foreign forays. But its biggest and fastest-growing division houses young domestic firms. While some may thrive, it’s less clear they can guarantee the vital pivot from oil.

Making sense of China’s big economic reboot

5 Nov 2024

Officials have taken dramatic steps to boost confidence and growth in the world’s second-largest economy. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal, explains why he sees the People’s Republic turning into a high-tech, low-growth country.

Chinese planners face an anxious wait

5 Nov 2024

The outlook for trade will worsen regardless of who wins the US election. It may take months for the new president’s policies to take shape. Beijing also needs time to assess how well its plan to stimulate its $18 trln economy is working. No point wielding any bazookas yet.

German M&A flurry is powered by lasting tailwinds

4 Nov 2024

Teutonic deal volumes are below their 2021 peak, like everywhere else. Yet a burst of activity, including the $15 bln privatisation of DB Schenker and $16 bln Covestro sale, show signs of life. Radical changes to the country’s industrial model imply an enduring rebound.

China consumer is epitome of delayed gratification

4 Nov 2024

Beijing says it wants to boost consumption’s 53% share of GDP as investment-led growth fades. Yet central planning is hard to square with free-spirited spending. Rebalancing without a period of stagnation is not easy. Recent policies also suggest the old model is hard to ditch.

Saudi’s Davos is no longer such a desert

1 Nov 2024

Around 8,000 CEOs and financiers flocked to the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, twice the number at its inception in 2017. Western bosses were keener to talk about artificial intelligence than investing in the kingdom. But Saudi’s progress suggests that may yet change.

Companies bear brunt of Britain’s fiscal trade-off

30 Oct 2024

New finance minister Rachel Reeves raised 40 bln pounds through higher levies, mostly on employers, to fund public services like health. She also changed debt rules to borrow more. It’s a bet that fiscal rectitude will help revive growth. But the ailing UK has few other options.

China is reshaping, not choking, private business

30 Oct 2024

Tech giants and property developers have tumbled, while party support lifted electric carmaker BYD and solar powerhouse Longi. A blurred line between state-backed and private firms does not preclude innovation or competition in the $18 trln economy. Disdain for market forces can.

Voters and markets put left-wing leaders in a bind

29 Oct 2024

The world must reduce debt by 3.8% of GDP by 2029 – four times more than planned – the IMF says. That’s bad news for social democratic governments, which lose elections when they are fiscally tough. But if they keep running chunky budget deficits, investors will make them pay.

How the US election affects the rest of the world

29 Oct 2024

Next week, voters will choose between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Their decision will impact governments, companies and investors outside the US. In this episode of The Big View podcast, geopolitical strategist Tina Fordham explains why markets misjudge the possible turmoil.

Value push will mostly survive Japan election mess

29 Oct 2024

A decade-long effort to boost shareholder returns can continue to gain traction despite the LDP's disaster at the polls. It helps that Japan Exchange took charge of the party's initiative for structural reform. For now, as politicians vie for power, a weak yen will buoy stocks.

Many roadblocks delay journey to zero carbon world

28 Oct 2024

While solar power and battery supply have grown massively, the same is not true of electricity grids, green hydrogen and carbon removal. Money is more expensive. This means demand for oil, gas and coal has not yet peaked. The setback will cost the planet dearly.

Elon Musk creates a must-win election

25 Oct 2024

The Tesla chief’s $840 bln EV maker would fare well or better under a Democratic president. But the temptation to become a global mastermind outside of autos is too strong — enough for Musk to back Donald Trump and gamble on the future of his federal contracts.

Debt rule tweak can help UK avoid moron premium

25 Oct 2024

Two years ago, former Prime Minister Liz Truss’ unfunded tax cuts sent 10-year gilt yields surging to 4.5%. Now, new Chancellor Rachel Reeves can avoid a similar debacle with small changes to the fiscal rules in next week’s Budget. With yields at 4.2%, there is no room for error.