Government & Agencies

Macron’s neglect is France’s main fiscal problem

25 May 2023

National debt is above 110% of GDP and will keep rising if the government’s rosy forecasts don’t pan out. Austerity isn’t the answer now, but the president doesn’t seem interested in crafting a long-term plan to cut indebtedness. That will hit the economy and future generations.

Debt ceiling crash will have few victims

25 May 2023

President Joe Biden is trying to hammer out a deal with Republican lawmakers to ensure the United States can keep its lights on. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain how even if the world’s largest economy defaults on its debts the damage will be limited.

Intuit investors bet on Uncle Sam’s inept tech

24 May 2023

The US may allow consumers to file taxes online, bypassing private software. Surveys suggest a free option could threaten up to $2.9 bln in revenue from Intuit’s TurboTax arm. The $120 bln company and its shareholders are relying on the state failing to get its act together.

Debt ceiling debacle is ultimate winner’s curse

23 May 2023

The US government is sailing perilously close to a moment when it cannot both service its debts and pay its dues. Political dysfunction could trip into market mayhem. Yet in monetary terms the US remains the only game in town. The debt showdown is the flip side of that privilege.

Supply chain scrutiny may upend EU solar ambitions

23 May 2023

Renewable groups must forgo photovoltaic components from China’s Xinjiang to comply with forced labour curbs. Yet the region produces 35% of the pure silicon needed in panels, and US firms are scooping up the non-Chinese supply. Enforcing a ban may scupper EU green targets.

EU will go easy on Indian resale of Russian fuel

23 May 2023

Fuelled by imports from Moscow, oil products sales to Europe from refiners including Reliance and Nayara have nearly doubled to $15 bln. The trend shows anti-Russian sanctions are not watertight. Yet, risks of an energy inflation revival make a European Union ban a tough call.

China’s Micron hit sets up repeat strikes

22 May 2023

The $72 bln US memory-chip maker says Chinese restrictions will probably reduce revenue less than 10%. Perhaps, but similar measures taken against database firms like Oracle and IBM a decade ago had a bigger long-term effect, helping domestic manufacturers to catch up.

G7 says “de-risking”, China hears “containment”

22 May 2023

Wealthy democracies argue they’re diversifying, not decoupling, from the world’s second-largest economy. Yet Beijing sees them hobbling strategic industries, undercutting its global leadership and boosting defence budgets. “Escalation” or “retaliation” are more accurate synonyms.

Thai Inc shakeup could follow shock election win

22 May 2023

The winning party remains upbeat it can form a government. Institutional reform is top of Move Forward’s agenda, but its wish list includes breaking up monopolies and cutting state concessions. The $500 bln economy needs a competitive upgrade. It will come at tycoons’ expense.

Benched legislation has hidden costs

19 May 2023

Washington is laser-focused on raising the debt ceiling. But as spending debates rage, Congress’s back burner is getting crowded. Pending legislation, like one that secures bank services for cannabis businesses, enjoy broad support, but the window for easy passage is closing.

Capital Calls: US gifts Big Tech

19 May 2023

Concise views on global finance: The US’s high court left internet firms’ liability protections untouched in two Thursday rulings. For Twitter, Meta and Google, business as usual is the ideal outcome.

Russia sanctions become a high return investment

19 May 2023

As older penalties lose their bite, Western powers are preparing a new round of measures to tighten the screws on Vladimir Putin. That will hurt the Kremlin and be a marginal sacrifice for Europe, which no longer depends on Moscow for its energy – a good cost-benefit balance.

Erdogan part three would be worse and the same

18 May 2023

The Turkish president is in a heated battle to lead the battered country. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the risks Turkey faces if he stays in office, his rival’s offering and how the outcome of the election will impact the rest of the world.

Debt conundrum gives Italy weak hand in EU talks

18 May 2023

The pandemic and the war have taken the country’s indebtedness off investors’ radar. Yet high interest rates, slower growth and a budget deficit mean Rome will struggle to cut its fiscal burden. That makes it harder for PM Giorgia Meloni to ask for lenient European rules.

Debt-ceiling talks are more theater than substance

16 May 2023

The few areas being discussed on Tuesday – food stamps and drilling permits - are hot political buttons. But they would shrink the deficit by only 2%. Lawmakers either have a long way to go to solve the debt problem, or they are favoring pet projects at the expense of insolvency.

Turkey votes for long-term market instability

15 May 2023

With President Erdogan and his rival set for a May 28 runoff, uncertainty is the main upshot of the country’s elections. That prolongs the agony for a $900 bln economy plagued by 44% inflation and wild fiscal policies. An even weaker lira and warier foreign investors will ensue.

Rich world has three ways to win over global South

15 May 2023

Leaders from the Group of Seven, who gather this week, need to develop a stronger pitch to poorer non-aligned nations. A strategy based on peace, prosperity and protecting the planet could work. It’s more effective than delivering lectures on democracy, says Hugo Dixon.

Thailand’s election could be a lose-lose scenario

12 May 2023

Sunday’s vote might deliver victory for pro-democracy parties or return the junta-backed government to power. No matter who wins, old hostilities will escalate. While both sides plan populist handouts, neither has an inspiring economic agenda.

Rebuilding Ukraine depends on luring private money

10 May 2023

International agencies and allied governments are taking care of the war-torn country’s immediate needs. An estimated $400 bln reconstruction bill, however, requires additional investors. Economic incentives and new laws would help attract them even before Russia’s invasion ends.

Credit Suisse debacle raises oversight question

9 May 2023

Swiss authorities hailed the state-backed rescue of the stricken lender by UBS as a commercial solution that will be light on domestic taxpayers. Banking professor and former SNB official Urs Birchler tells The Exchange podcast why the quick fix is far from ideal.