Government & Agencies

Rich nations can learn from Ireland’s health shift

9 Jan 2024

Dublin wants to build a universal healthcare system. Phasing out a US-like insurance model is bold and could require 20 bln euros from the state. Countries thinking of similar overhauls to deal with waiting lists and ageing citizens will need money and political consensus.

Hong Kong-China travel flip is a new headache

8 Jan 2024

It is one year since the border reopened and fewer mainlanders are arriving in the offshore hub. But Hong Kongers are increasingly travelling to Shenzhen and beyond to shop and eat. That’s a blow for the Asian centre's retail and property, and part of the shift looks permanent. 

Global polycrisis could yet have not-so-bad ending

8 Jan 2024

From war in Gaza and Ukraine to superpower rivalry, climate change and slow growth, there is a lot of danger in the world. The possible return of Donald Trump as US President is another risk. But there are more optimistic scenarios - and some silver linings in pessimistic ones.

Taiwan elections can weaken an unstable status quo

4 Jan 2024

The Democratic Progressives are vying for a third term but another re-election of the independence leaning party will frustrate China. While market indicators are buoyant, more of the same in the island's local politics can make Sino-US ties worse.

Green backlash will spread to European Parliament

3 Jan 2024

Pro-environment parties risk losing clout in June’s pan-EU vote. That will reinforce a strengthening bond between conservatives and far-right forces wary of the industrial and social cost of the clean transition. The EU’s ambitious Green Deal will get a paler hue.

China policy risk returns as stock market grinch

22 Dec 2023

Shares in Tencent and NetEase plunged after surprise new curbs from Beijing on video-game spending and rewards. It smacks of President Xi Jinping’s crackdowns on private tutoring, tech and other sectors – and gives overseas investors another reason to be wary jumping back in.

The United States will go from MAGA to MAWA

21 Dec 2023

‘Make America Worse Again’ won’t be a campaign slogan, but it’s a vibe. Joe Biden’s policies brought jobs onshore, helped the energy transition, and delayed a downturn. But 2024 will bring infighting that worsens the nation’s financial standing and an electoral test of democracy.

EU debt rules offer unity at price of relevance

21 Dec 2023

European Union finance chiefs reached a deal on a new fiscal pact, breaking a post-pandemic stalemate. Germany won austere deficit and debt targets, yet pain will be diluted by French-fought delays and concessions. The net result is an overly complex system that may not work.

Big companies will raid government for future CEOs

20 Dec 2023

There’s a long history of businesspeople going into politics. Now sanctions and subsidies are showing boardrooms the value of diplomatic skills. Lazard CEO Peter Orszag and Legal & General Chairman John Kingman worked in government. Others will follow through the revolving door.

Suez crisis may finally jolt Egypt out of stasis

20 Dec 2023

Cairo was wobbling even before militant attacks threatened its $9 bln of annual revenue from the Suez Canal. With inflation at 36%, re-elected President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s foreign aid needs are spiking. He will need to stop dawdling on reforms required by donors like the IMF.

Spain’s Saudi telecoms shield is pricey and futile

20 Dec 2023

Madrid is buying 10% of Telefonica to protect it from the kingdom’s stake-building. But Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez already has tools to block the Gulf investor taking a board seat or a bigger share. Splurging taxpayer money unnecessarily looks risky for a new government.

New Red Sea blockage may be both longer and milder

19 Dec 2023

Militant attacks have forced groups from Maersk to BP to avoid the conduit for over 10% of world trade. Re-routing round Africa will hike fuel costs and could last six months. Yet weaker global demand relative to a six-day 2021 stoppage may limit the wider economic fallout.

Saudi’s best foreign investment will be in Gaza

19 Dec 2023

The kingdom is known for flashy punts on Western sports and blue chips. But its real need is foreign cash to help diversify away from oil. If Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman were to use Saudi money to help Palestinians rebuild post-war, US goodwill may prompt an FDI spike.

Russia’s economy will suffer from brawl at the top

18 Dec 2023

The CEO of state-held oil major Rosneft slammed the central bank’s high interest rates. President Vladimir Putin has long thrived on tensions between hardliners and the few remaining technocrats. But with Moscow in permanent crisis mode, the high-level conflict spells trouble.

EU accession carrot keeps Ukraine aid hopes alive

15 Dec 2023

Brussels has agreed to start membership talks with Kyiv, but Hungary blocked 50 bln euros earmarked for the war-torn country. The prospect of joining the 27-nation bloc matters more to Ukraine than the short-term financial setback, which can be overcome in the coming months.

EU’s Russian asset grab would backfire

14 Dec 2023

Brussels is asking EU governments to funnel to Ukraine the returns on some 180 bln euros of frozen Russian assets. That would only marginally help Kyiv, even if Western support seems to be wavering. And it would open a legal and political can of worms.

COP28 deal just about keeps net zero on the road

13 Dec 2023

Nations at the climate shindig agreed to start transitioning away from fossil fuels. The wording could have been tougher and clearer, and the world still faces harmful warming. But the Dubai meeting could have yielded a damaging standstill, rather than a baby step forward.

Capital Calls: OpenAI’s Microsoft dilemma

11 Dec 2023

Concise views on global finance: When boss Sam Altman’s ouster threatened to implode the ChatGPT maker, $2.7 trln backer Microsoft helped restore order. That necessary boon, however, will draw ever-more trustbuster scrutiny about tech giants’ unshakable influence in AI.

COP28 oil-fest still has a path to credibility

8 Dec 2023

Unlike Glasgow’s COP26, Dubai’s version of the global climate meet has involved polluters like Exxon Mobil. COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber’s dual role as an oil boss has also come under intense scrutiny. Yet his renewables goals also imply global crude output may soon wane.

Energy transition investing is caught in traps

8 Dec 2023

COP28 attendees pledged to triple renewables, but there’s still no plan to quit fossil fuel. Brookfield’s $13 bln joint bid for Aussie emitter Origin lined up a poster child deal for how companies can make the leap. Its failure has lessons for the world’s broader efforts.