Government & Agencies

Japan loses a big title, and perhaps its way

15 Feb 2024

A surprise technical recession means the country is no longer the world’s third-largest economy. Even more unnerving is a slew of weak data that make it harder for the central bank to end an era of ultra-low interest rates. Companies’ wage negotiations will be a deciding factor.

Infrastructure may take toll on big asset managers

14 Feb 2024

Investors have sunk $1 trln in safe, stable assets; BlackRock just made a $13 bln bet on the sector. But success has been spotty and higher rates make investing harder. Plus the definition of infrastructure – which includes laundry and Scandinavian fish farms – is stretching.

The green agenda’s best shot at a revival

13 Feb 2024

Economic distress prompted by globalisation undermines support for the energy transition, climate change economist Valentina Bosetti tells The Exchange podcast. That matters as key US and EU elections approach. Using proceeds from carbon taxes to address inequality is paramount.

Europe’s wilting bourses get fresh cause to unite

12 Feb 2024

The likely de-listings of Italy’s Saras and Tod’s add to a wider exodus from euro zone stock exchanges. Part of the problem is a lack of new European companies to replace them. But Europe could also help itself if its equity market rules and trading were less fragmented.

Ignoring migration’s roots will cost the West dear

12 Feb 2024

Politicians in the US and Europe are devoting much energy to stopping illegal migrants. But this will achieve little unless they also tackle the drivers of migration: poverty, conflict, and climate change. Otherwise, politics in the rich world will become increasingly toxic.

Oil investors are adrift in Red Sea rip currents

9 Feb 2024

Crude prices at around $80 a barrel are lower than in early October despite conflict in Gaza, attacks on shipping vessels off Yemen, and US-Iran tensions. That reflects expectations of weak demand and ample supply, underpinned by lax sanctions. All three could soon change.

Capital Calls: L’Oréal

9 Feb 2024

Concise views on global finance: The French cosmetics giant suffered from the same China pain as Shiseido and Estée Lauder, but it is coping better than its Japanese and US rivals.

Xi can wait out the Anywhere-But-China trade

8 Feb 2024

Removing the chair of the securities regulator offers a scalp for the market crash as domestic and foreign investors dump stocks and claw at other destinations. Confidence is flagging, but the Chinese leader's best option may be to let benchmarks find a bottom first.

NY bank’s slide exposes regulatory booby trap

7 Feb 2024

A credit-rating downgrade adds to the misery of investors in $3 bln New York Community Bancorp, whose shares have more than halved in a month. A plan to rebuild its balance sheet will take many months. Watchdogs, who can’t afford for fear to take root, face a different timeline.

Renk’s IPO bang masks troubled world

7 Feb 2024

Shares in the German tank-gearbox maker soared 23% on the first day of trading. That and the Athens airport operator’s strong market debut suggest calmer IPO waters. Yet Renk’s success stems from heightened geopolitical tensions. That should keep investors on alert.

EU ‘Italian Job’ starts with winning over citizens

6 Feb 2024

Former premiers Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta are studying how to boost the bloc’s competitiveness. Europe’s single market needs to adapt to global shifts in trade, energy, and industrial policy. But any overhaul will depend on persuading voters that the EU benefits them, too.

Capital Calls: Beijing’s anti-corruption drive

6 Feb 2024

Concise views on global finance: President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on the country’s financial sector threatens to derail efforts to boost confidence in the world’s second largest economy.

Capital Calls: Estée Lauder, European banks

5 Feb 2024

Concise views on global finance: The cosmetics giant behind Le Labo is cutting jobs and redoubling restructuring efforts, but the changes only go skin-deep; Santander and Lloyds are under pressure after a report they banked entities controlled by a US-sanctioned Iranian company.

Italy is fighting a rearguard battle on Stellantis

2 Feb 2024

Rome may invest in the $73 bln carmaker. Matching France’s 6% stake would cost 4 bln euros, hurting the government’s privatisation effort, and may spook Italian business. Saving jobs at the former Fiat is a natural concern, but Italy is no longer the group’s centre of gravity.

Budget deal leaves EU isolated in Ukraine aid push

2 Feb 2024

The EU avoided a crisis by salvaging its 50 bln euro funding plan for Kyiv after Hungarian strongman Viktor Orbán fell in line. Europe is, however, isolated in its drive to support Ukraine, as long as a $61 bln similar aid package is stalled in the US Congress.

Korea’s battery giants engineer volatile US gains

2 Feb 2024

LGES and Samsung SDI have announced more than $18 bln of investments to build factories Stateside. Thanks to generous tax credits from Washington, those bets could pay off. But slowing EV growth and policy risk – amplified by US elections this year – will be an unstable mix.

American unions can’t bargain with the inevitable

1 Feb 2024

Workers in industries from coffee to movies rose up in 2023, but long-term trends are working against organized labor. Some, like auto workers, are a threat to employers. But even there, a combination of legal and societal shifts make for a less-united future.

Revamp of the world order will have to wait

29 Jan 2024

Developing countries last week called for a rethink of global governance. While it’s possible to imagine an order more conducive to peace, justice and prosperity, the chances of creating it are slim. Better to shore up the existing multilateral system and wait for better times.

Financial fallout is hardwired into new nuclear

26 Jan 2024

France’s EDF wants help with the costs of its Hinkley Point C plant, which now exceed 30 bln pounds. Britain can say no, but needs the power. Globally nuclear capacity is supposed to treble by 2050, but future investor, state and customer spats on overruns look inevitable.

Indonesia’s nickel policy looks fragile

26 Jan 2024

Outgoing President Joko Widodo's push to embed the country into electric-vehicle supply chains is under scrutiny ahead of elections next month. Global companies face an anxious wait to see if the policy will be fine-tuned; beyond the polls other threats are piling up too.