Government & Agencies

Taylor Swift is Thai economy’s antihero

6 Mar 2024

Singapore's exclusive deal to host the pop star's Southeast Asia concerts has irked its neighbours. Thailand, with the slowest post-pandemic recovery, is upset at missing out on the spoils. Those are debatable and in any event wouldn't shake off the $500 bln economy's malaise.

China Vanke looks too favoured to fail

6 Mar 2024

Investors are dumping the $14 bln developer’s bonds and stock on reports it wants to extend its debt. The firm says it can repay $630 mln due next week. And crucially, it has the effective backing of the Shenzhen government. Letting Vanke go under would send markets into a panic.

White House race puts lots of fine print at stake

5 Mar 2024

Super Tuesday contests may solidify former President Trump’s shot at a 2020 rematch. November’s ballot will decide not just big-picture issues, but a host of smaller tweaks – like financial or climate rules – where a victorious Trump could roll back President Joe Biden’s legacy.

Kyiv’s defence requires European supply-side shock

5 Mar 2024

Europe is not producing the 2 mln artillery shells Ukraine needs, and missile plants are idle. Meanwhile, its stockpiles are shrinking, threatening the region’s ability to defend itself. To crank up production lines, manufacturers will need a steady flow of government orders.

How to solve Europe’s defence riddle

5 Mar 2024

At 360 bln euros, the bloc’s military expenses are three times Russia’s. Yet fragmented defence systems are a problem, Bruegel senior fellow Guntram Wolff tells The Exchange podcast. To improve scale and boost aid for Ukraine, Europe should consider more joint debt.

Excessive UK tax giveaways risk longer-term harm

5 Mar 2024

Finance minister Jeremy Hunt may spend some 15 bln pounds in pre-election fiscal gifts in Wednesday’s budget. He could be tempted to do more – and make life difficult for the next government – by further cutting public services. But that would put the country in a bind.

China’s financial clout will be hard to reverse

4 Mar 2024

Exports from the People’s Republic upended the world economy. Its $4.3 trln hoard of foreign assets is doing the same for global finance. As with trade, winding back the clock will not work. Multilateral problems require multilateral solutions.

EIB backing would add spark to EU mini-nuclear bid

1 Mar 2024

Europe’s bid to develop smaller, cheaper nuclear reactors as part of its plan to cut carbon emissions needs cash and political support. European Investment Bank financing for next-generation projects would make a difference. Even so, green benefits may take years to materialise.

European telcos’ new deal hopes face reality check

1 Mar 2024

Executives gathered in Barcelona this week to plead for lighter regulation, cheaper spectrum and some financial help. Policymakers are unlikely to agree. Deutsche Telekom, Telefónica and others will have to convince investors that future growth requires more investment today.

Hong Kong needs a purpose to steer its finances

29 Feb 2024

The Asian centre will log another budget deficit, and its fiscal reserve has nearly halved to $94 bln since 2018. Meanwhile structural issues, including a reliance on land sales, remain unresolved. The city is eroding its healthy buffers. It lacks a plan to make that worthwhile.

Shenzhen offers glimpse of China’s housing future

28 Feb 2024

The tech hub’s plan to put 60% of its 18 mln residents in subsidised homes answers President Xi Jinping’s call for a “new development model” prioritising affordability. The state is reclaiming a lead role in the property market of the world’s second-largest economy, at huge cost.

Europe defence push requires clearing M&A barriers

27 Feb 2024

The region is hiking military spending to aid Ukraine and become less dependent on the US. Yet governments are squandering investment on incompatible weapons and systems. Creating more regional champions, like aerospace giant Airbus and missile maker MBDA, is a top priority.

UAE makes $35 bln bet on Egyptian virtuous circle

26 Feb 2024

The Gulf state is amping up support for Cairo by investing in a huge coastal tourist scheme. Prompt cash may make the recipient’s IMF loan deal more likely, and the UAE gets most of the project’s upside. But the plan reflects the scale of regional concern about an imploded Egypt.

Russia risk looms over Euroclear profit windfall

22 Feb 2024

The Brussels-based clearing house is a reluctant depository for sanctioned Russian assets. It made 5.7 bln euros before tax last year thanks to cash sitting on its balance sheet. But the bonanza also makes it a target. A blow to financial stability would far exceed one-off gains.

The rocky road to an ‘eBay for carbon credits’

20 Feb 2024

Markets that trade the right to emit greenhouse gases have a ropey history. Still, in this Exchange podcast Harvard University Fellow Ely Sandler argues that companies and countries may increasingly pay carbon taxes via emission permits – and unlock cash for the green transition.

Joe Biden 2.0 offers chance at less global tension

19 Feb 2024

In a second term, the US president might preside over less fractious geopolitics and trade friction. He also could make a fresh push to fight climate change. American allies shouldn’t get their hopes up, though; such an agenda would face obstacles at home and abroad.

Navalny’s death will make Putin weaker

16 Feb 2024

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has died in jail. In the country, he will become a symbol of what President Putin fears most in democracy and political freedom. In the rest of the world, his passing will undermine the voices arguing for a softer policy toward Moscow.

NatWest share sale starts life on shaky ground

16 Feb 2024

The $24 bln lender’s pre-tax profit rose 20% in 2023 due to higher borrowing costs. But the boom will be brief as the prospect of falling rates and a weak economy will hit returns. That’s a tough sell for the government as it readies to offer its holding to the British public.

Europe defence requires more than a $75 bln boost

16 Feb 2024

Non-US NATO members will spend 2% of GDP on their militaries in 2024. Yet the extra $75 bln a year it entails remains below what Europe will need. Ukraine, technological advances and US wavering mean their true requirement is more like 3% of their output.

UK growth alarm is best focused on the long term

15 Feb 2024

The shrinkage in Britain’s economy at the end of 2023 belies an improving climate. With falling inflation, low unemployment and a stirring housing market, rates may soon fall. Yet pre-election fiscal giveaways may impede a fix to the real issue: ongoing poor productivity growth.