Government & Agencies

France would feel lonely if debt crisis hit

18 Jun 2024

Market fears of a far-right victory in the elections sent yields on the country’s 2.3 trln euro debt to 12-year highs. If traders’ worries deepen, support from the European Central Bank is not a given. And a eurosceptic government would be deprived of Brussels’ goodwill.

China’s risky answer to wall of debt is more debt

18 Jun 2024

The central government is issuing special ultra-long bonds to steer the $18 trln economy towards ‘high quality growth’. In piling risk onto the country’s last decent balance sheet, President Xi Jinping is betting the People’s Republic can continue to defy a debt crisis.

Latest UK builder M&A may yet have completion date

14 Jun 2024

Crest Nicholson rejected bigger rival Bellway’s $828 mln all-share offer. While Crest’s new profit warning is a turnoff, falling returns mean housebuilder mergers generally make sense. Bellway may not need to offer much more to convince its target’s shareholders.

Net zero arbitrage is large, but no one-way bet

14 Jun 2024

There’s a big gap between the rich world’s ambitions to reduce carbon emissions and the ability of governments to achieve that goal. Investors can try to exploit that disconnect. However, economic, technological and geopolitical constraints can quickly change in unexpected ways.

Stock handouts might help save the US ruling class

13 Jun 2024

The top 0.1% Americans own a quarter of the $40 trln in share-based wealth while the bottom half has just $400 bln. It’s therefore encouraging to see GE, Walmart and Blackstone-backed firms giving workers equity. Less inequality will better align the interests of poor and rich.

Europe’s election eruption threatens paralysis

13 Jun 2024

Centrist and green parties saw big losses in a vote to elect the European Union’s parliament, sparking a shock snap election in France. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain how ensuing instability could slow the continent’s response to urgent global issues.

French investors face full year of financial funk

13 Jun 2024

If Marine Le Pen’s far-right RN party wins next month’s election and sticks to its pledges, France’s 5% budget deficit will balloon. President Emmanuel Macron could call a new election, but not for 12 months. Amid paralysis or worse, the state’s fiscal position may get messier.

Chinese EV makers will drive around EU tariffs

12 Jun 2024

The bloc is imposing levies ranging from 17% to 38% on electric cars imported from the People’s Republic. Some, like BYD, can swallow the cost, while others will find workarounds. Europe’s policymakers will have to go back to the drawing board if they want to have a real impact.

Spain’s $24 bln investment giant has too many hats

12 Jun 2024

Criteria Caixa takes dividends from its big equity portfolio and sends cash to the country’s top charitable foundation. Increasingly, though, Chair Isidro Fainé is fixated on protecting national champions like Telefónica. Pleasing Madrid means sacrificing returns for the charity.

India’s inequality deserves a bigger risk premium

12 Jun 2024

Prime Minister Narendra Modi suffered his biggest electoral blow in one of the nation’s poorest states. By one measure, the gap between haves and have-nots is wider than during British rule. Closing it is tricky. Without change, though, stability will hang by a thread.

India breezes through its first continuity test

11 Jun 2024

Leader Narendra Modi began his third term by keeping nearly all his top ministers, defying speculation he'd cede key posts to allies. The resilience of markets following the shock election result underscores stability too. The costs of coalition rule, if any, may show up later.

Super Mario could give weak EU a shot in the arm

10 Jun 2024

After the European Parliament elections, the EU will choose its leaders. Mario Draghi, who helped save the euro, brings unique experience. If the 27 member states wanted to rise to global challenges, they would pick him to chair their discussions as European Council president.

Macron lobs petrol on fiery French economic waters

10 Jun 2024

After suffering a beating in European elections, France’s president has called a snap parliamentary poll. Debt investors are already antsy about the country’s yawning deficit. A new electoral battle with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party will hardly help matters.

Modi’s allies will be new defining force for India

7 Jun 2024

Coalition partners may demand special funds for their regions, and ask for key ministries, for supporting Prime Minister Narendra Modi's new government. Handouts can give states an edge to court companies like Tesla. The resource-grab will create tension in the halls of power.

ECB can start worrying about growth, not inflation

6 Jun 2024

The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time since September 2019, but predicted inflation will stay above its 2% target until 2026. That could tempt Frankfurt hardliners to delay further monetary easing. Doing so would endanger the bloc’s fragile recovery.

UK building plans will fail to get off the ground

6 Jun 2024

Rivals in the July 4 election promise 300,000 new houses a year to ease shortages and lower prices. A lack of builders makes that unlikely. More than 346,000 construction jobs have disappeared since 2019. Without immigration or training, Britain will remain cramped and expensive.

India’s resilient democracy comes with a cost

6 Jun 2024

Narendra Modi will have to rely on a coalition government after a shock upset in the national elections. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why politicians may dig deeper to support the poor and how power sharing may create challenges for big business.

Immigration benefits outweigh US border troubles

5 Jun 2024

President Joe Biden is under pressure to solve the problem of inbound surges at the southern border. But foreign-born workers fill gaps left by retiring boomers, an advantage over countries like China and South Korea. The rebound in newcomers provides a long-term economic boon.

EU vote is prelude to Europe’s real choice

5 Jun 2024

Some 370 mln voters from 27 member states are set to pick a new assembly. The result will influence how EU government leaders decide who should lead the next European Commission. Backing incumbent Ursula von der Leyen to avoid a chaotic deadlock is in the bloc’s best interest.

Moscow’s war yields a new type of Russian oligarch

5 Jun 2024

Vladimir Putin has long tamed his country’s 1990s-era billionaires, and a later cadre of ex-KGB moguls. Now the Russian president has picked a third generation of businessmen to own and manage confiscated Western assets. They won’t be any less subservient to his whims.