Government & Agencies

Labour’s election win brings power and pitfalls

5 Jul 2024

Keir Starmer is Britain’s new prime minister after his Labour Party won over 410 seats in Thursday’s vote. The electoral landslide gives clarity, a mandate to boost growth and potentially a path to tax wealth. But self-imposed constraints mean change may be too gradual.

UK elections herald return to tarnished stability

4 Jul 2024

Polls suggest voters will hand Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party a historic defeat. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how a new government might pick up the pieces amid the legacy of a now-immutable Brexit and political turmoil engulfing global peers.

Le Pen will fail as star of Meloni in Paris

3 Jul 2024

Markets are relatively calm about the prospect of a far-right government after Sunday’s second electoral round. They may believe that Marine Le Pen’s party would mimic the apparent moderation of Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. Her fiscal plans, inexperience and beliefs suggest otherwise.

New UK government can claim competence dividend

2 Jul 2024

Eight years of political upheaval and economic uncertainty raised the risk premium for investors. Now the centrist Keir Starmer is set to take over, while France and the US face electoral turmoil. For the first time since the Brexit vote, the country looks a relative safe haven.

US deregulatory triage ranges from cars to drugs

1 Jul 2024

The Supreme Court has curtailed agencies’ power to act beyond the bounds of explicit legislation. With no legal doctrine to guide what happens next, everything from Biden administration efforts to support electric vehicles to the basics of approving medicines is under the gun.

The risk of a euro crisis is rising

1 Jul 2024

While political instability in France adds to the single currency’s fragility, it probably won’t trigger another meltdown. But euro zone members’ high debts, pressing spending needs and low growth at a time of rising nationalism and geopolitical conflict are storing up trouble.

Would-be Biden donors may start to think twice

28 Jun 2024

Billionaire backers like to spread money to both candidates in the US presidential election as an insurance policy. But the incumbent’s shaky debate performance might give some pause. It comes at a bad time. With $117 mln on hand, Trump has a 40% bigger war chest than Biden.

China’s Third Plenum will jolt the economy, again

28 Jun 2024

Xi Jinping has a chance to lay out his answer to major issues including weak consumption at July’s five-yearly huddle of top officials. Previous meetings set the tone for the country. This one is much delayed and will determine China’s interest in making itself “investible”.

White-collar crime gets crack at messy due process

27 Jun 2024

The US Supreme Court dealt a blow to securities regulators Thursday by requiring jury trials in cases of fraud. Neither courts nor regulators have resources for that. Plus the ruling opens the door for internal courts at other agencies – from the FTC to FERC – to be weakened.

Presidential debate puts wrong people on the spot

27 Jun 2024

Personalities will overshadow agendas in Thursday's matchup between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Presidential aides matter more than candidate mudslinging and soundbites. Corporate directors are scrutinized when companies come under fire. Top advisors should have debates, too.

France raises ghosts of last euro zone crisis

27 Jun 2024

French voters will go to the polls this weekend for the first round of the parliamentary elections. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss why the country’s rising bond yields and the risks of contagion will be uncomfortably familiar for investors.

French left is too divided to soak the rich

27 Jun 2024

France’s leftist parties have vowed to lift wages and control prices if they win the upcoming election. That would cost 150 bln euros and be funded by higher taxes on the wealthy. Yet fierce splits between moderate socialists and hardliners mean the well-to-do can rest easy.

Olympic Games can withstand Atos farce

26 Jun 2024

The French firm managing the Paris sporting event’s IT backbone is close to bankruptcy. It may find 800 mln euros of short-term financing from President Macron’s government and loans even after creditors ditched restructuring talks. But its future after the Games is less certain.

Why the French vote also matters to Italy

25 Jun 2024

The outcome of snap elections in France will reverberate beyond its borders. Debt-laden Italy is particularly exposed if borrowing costs rise. In this Exchange podcast, former top Treasury official Fabrizio Pagani discusses Rome’s fiscal challenges in a changing EU landscape.

UK investment crisis calls for taxes and U-turns

25 Jun 2024

Budget strictures could see public expenditure sink from 2.4% of national income now to 1.8% by 2029. Businesses are unlikely to pick up the tab. The winner of Britain’s July 4 election can redress domestic underinvestment by taxing more – and moving the fiscal goalposts.

How to scale up the G7’s $50 bln Ukraine loan

23 Jun 2024

The club of rich democracies navigated many obstacles to lend to Kyiv. They found ways that could side-step U.S. Congressional approval and avoid increasing EU countries’ debts. They could use similar methods if they are prepared to give Ukraine the $320 billion it really needs.

French plutocrats may regret keeping mum on Le Pen

20 Jun 2024

The country’s corporate chiefs have refrained from criticising the far right’s plans ahead of the election. That’s a change from 2017 and 2022 when Marine Le Pen ran for president against Emmanuel Macron. Considering her economic platform, they may rue their embarrassed silence.

UBS deal exposes Swiss trustbusters’ inadequacy

19 Jun 2024

Despite competition concerns, the $100 bln bank has escaped antitrust blowback from last year’s purchase of troubled Credit Suisse. Any doubt could have undermined the deal, and hence the rescue. But Swiss legal tools to monitor further competition risks look especially weak.

French cracks show up Italy’s messy fiscal house

19 Jun 2024

Investors fear Paris’s financial laxity. Yet, after wasting $235 bln on tax credits for home improvements, Rome’s finances are also shaky. EU funds will help offset the phasing out of incentives. But with weak growth and nervy markets, cutting debt is both harder and more needed.

UK labour market’s pain is Labour Party’s gain

18 Jun 2024

Britain’s 4.4% unemployment rate is its highest since 2021. That’s good for the Bank of England, which needs slower wage growth to cut rates. It also suits opposition leader Keir Starmer, who could get an early monetary policy boost should he win the UK’s July 4 election.