Government & Agencies

Spain’s $24 bln investment giant has too many hats

12 Jun 2024

Criteria Caixa takes dividends from its big equity portfolio and sends cash to the country’s top charitable foundation. Increasingly, though, Chair Isidro Fainé is fixated on protecting national champions like Telefónica. Pleasing Madrid means sacrificing returns for the charity.

India’s inequality deserves a bigger risk premium

12 Jun 2024

Prime Minister Narendra Modi suffered his biggest electoral blow in one of the nation’s poorest states. By one measure, the gap between haves and have-nots is wider than during British rule. Closing it is tricky. Without change, though, stability will hang by a thread.

India breezes through its first continuity test

11 Jun 2024

Leader Narendra Modi began his third term by keeping nearly all his top ministers, defying speculation he'd cede key posts to allies. The resilience of markets following the shock election result underscores stability too. The costs of coalition rule, if any, may show up later.

Super Mario could give weak EU a shot in the arm

10 Jun 2024

After the European Parliament elections, the EU will choose its leaders. Mario Draghi, who helped save the euro, brings unique experience. If the 27 member states wanted to rise to global challenges, they would pick him to chair their discussions as European Council president.

Macron lobs petrol on fiery French economic waters

10 Jun 2024

After suffering a beating in European elections, France’s president has called a snap parliamentary poll. Debt investors are already antsy about the country’s yawning deficit. A new electoral battle with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party will hardly help matters.

Modi’s allies will be new defining force for India

7 Jun 2024

Coalition partners may demand special funds for their regions, and ask for key ministries, for supporting Prime Minister Narendra Modi's new government. Handouts can give states an edge to court companies like Tesla. The resource-grab will create tension in the halls of power.

ECB can start worrying about growth, not inflation

6 Jun 2024

The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time since September 2019, but predicted inflation will stay above its 2% target until 2026. That could tempt Frankfurt hardliners to delay further monetary easing. Doing so would endanger the bloc’s fragile recovery.

UK building plans will fail to get off the ground

6 Jun 2024

Rivals in the July 4 election promise 300,000 new houses a year to ease shortages and lower prices. A lack of builders makes that unlikely. More than 346,000 construction jobs have disappeared since 2019. Without immigration or training, Britain will remain cramped and expensive.

India’s resilient democracy comes with a cost

6 Jun 2024

Narendra Modi will have to rely on a coalition government after a shock upset in the national elections. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why politicians may dig deeper to support the poor and how power sharing may create challenges for big business.

Immigration benefits outweigh US border troubles

5 Jun 2024

President Joe Biden is under pressure to solve the problem of inbound surges at the southern border. But foreign-born workers fill gaps left by retiring boomers, an advantage over countries like China and South Korea. The rebound in newcomers provides a long-term economic boon.

EU vote is prelude to Europe’s real choice

5 Jun 2024

Some 370 mln voters from 27 member states are set to pick a new assembly. The result will influence how EU government leaders decide who should lead the next European Commission. Backing incumbent Ursula von der Leyen to avoid a chaotic deadlock is in the bloc’s best interest.

Moscow’s war yields a new type of Russian oligarch

5 Jun 2024

Vladimir Putin has long tamed his country’s 1990s-era billionaires, and a later cadre of ex-KGB moguls. Now the Russian president has picked a third generation of businessmen to own and manage confiscated Western assets. They won’t be any less subservient to his whims.

Biden’s hydrogen goals are like oil and water

4 Jun 2024

The White House wants to foster production of the abundant element as an alternative to fossil fuels, but oil and gas companies want a chance to pitch in. Environmentalists see that as a trap. Even so, there may be no choice but to extend oil majors like Exxon an olive branch.

India may no longer be Narendra Modi’s

4 Jun 2024

His party is on course to lose its majority and will be at the mercy of allies to form a government. It ends a decade of extraordinary stability in the world’s fifth-largest economy. A market selloff hints at the costs of coalition rule. Growth may slow but there are some gains.

Russian bond rout raises risk of financial crunch

4 Jun 2024

Yields on the country’s debt are at 20-year highs on worries about the budget largesse lavished on the economy. With inflation rising and interest rates at 16%, President Vladimir Putin’s desire to keep funding the conflict in Ukraine could result in lasting fiscal turmoil.

Modi 3.0 offers limited opportunities for the West

3 Jun 2024

Western leaders’ hopes for India as a bulwark against China outweigh their concerns about Narendra Modi’s authoritarian streak. They will have more scope to work with the prime minister during his expected third term. But the overlap of interests and values is limited.

South Africa avoids doomsday, remains in purgatory

3 Jun 2024

After the elections, the African National Congress will lose the grip on parliament it held since 1994. Poor results by the hard left lower the risk of a market-unfriendly ‘doomsday coalition’. But with GDP growth of just 0.9% and large deficits, the country’s future looks bleak.

EU’s wobbly budget rules can bolster shaky economy

3 Jun 2024

Eleven countries have breached Brussels’ fiscal levees, with deficits larger than 3% of GDP. But the limits come with loopholes and allow for delays. That’s good news for a bloc desperate for growth to rival the US. For Europe, weaker rules are better than misguided austerity.

Donald Trump verdict judged leniently by investors

31 May 2024

The former US president joins Italy’s Berlusconi and other politicians in the criminal hall of shame. He also may yet be re-elected, but there’s no extra risk being imputed to the country’s debt, currency or markets. However robust the system, sanctioned wrongdoing will erode it.

Aramco’s $12 bln share sale is borne of necessity

31 May 2024

Saudi Arabia is selling an extra 0.6% slice of the $1.9 trln oil giant. Riyadh needs cash because budget concerns have delayed projects to diversify its economy. The company’s low valuation versus global rivals makes the timing suboptimal. At least buyers get an attractive yield.