Government & Agencies

UK growth fix can start with pampered rich savers

19 Jul 2024

New Prime Minister Keir Starmer wants to unblock Britain’s dismal economy. One aid would be to raise revenue by cutting superfluous tax perks for wealthy savers. Another is to find a way to deploy UK savings in more growth-enhancing assets than is currently the case.

Trump 2.0 might be the same, but much more

18 Jul 2024

After an earth-shaking few weeks in US politics, the Republican presidential candidate’s odds of returning to the White House look higher. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss what a second term might look like, and why Trump might be empowered this time.

China’s plenum strikes the right opening chord

18 Jul 2024

Party leaders pledged at a key meeting to ‘unswervingly encourage’ the private sector. The details will be key but there are enough fresh signals to suggest President Xi Jinping sees the problems in the $17 trln economy, and may adjust policy course to shore up confidence.

Public investment dearth is Europe’s growth killer

17 Jul 2024

Germany will spend a paltry 0.15% of GDP on new government-backed projects in 2025. Other European countries are tightening their belts for fear of having to raise taxes. But failing to invest enough in the green transition, infrastructure or defence will cripple their economies.

Ozempic may gift US a $3 trln benefit

16 Jul 2024

Tech advances are the unpredictable joker of healthcare spending, sometimes adding to outlays. Recent estimates to the United States' medical bill suggest costs will rise, even with the new obesity drug. But previous technological advances in medicine have been underestimated.

Inflation teaches five lessons for the next crisis

16 Jul 2024

After taming a 9% rise in prices without breaking economies, US Fed Chair Jay Powell and other central bankers are poised to pat themselves on the back. There’s also an opportunity to improve the playbook. Among the useful takeaways: embrace taciturnity, flexibility and humility.

World polycrisis hangs on US politics

15 Jul 2024

The shocking attempted assassination of Donald Trump doesn’t just unveil the fragility of the US political environment. The globe also has much at stake in the outcome of November’s election. A victory for the former president would carry risks for Ukraine, trade and the planet.

China’s weak economy awaits new remedies

15 Jul 2024

Growth slowed to 4.7% in the second quarter. Real estate woes endure and lacklustre consumption points to a greater reliance on exports. Policymakers can still hit their annual GDP target, but the sobering data ups the stakes for fresh fixes from this week’s Third Plenum.

Life-or-death moments embolden ‘America First’

14 Jul 2024

After a failed attempt on the life of presidential hopeful Donald Trump, his oft-fractious party is rallying. The effect on a race until now defined by broad public disdain is unclear. But as Trump’s support hardens, so too will polarization, both within the country and overseas.

UK gilts are ready to regain their long-lost shine

12 Jul 2024

British government bond prices are off 24% in three years due to a budget crisis, tight monetary policy and political turmoil. Yet the UK now has a fiscally austere new administration with a big majority and a central bank ready to cut borrowing costs. That could stop the rot.

Markets will keep shaky French regime on a leash

11 Jul 2024

A left-wing coalition and Emmanuel Macron’s centrists are vying for control of France’s government. Fiscal discipline may fall by the wayside. Paris is already being disciplined by Brussels for its high deficit and debt. A reliance on foreign investors leaves little wiggle room.

UK’s Labour takes dicey punt on a laxer City

11 Jul 2024

Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ endorsement of pre-existing regulatory proposals to boost London’s stock market will endear her to bankers working on deals and IPOs. But asset managers dislike plans that involve diluting shareholder rights. And Labour needs their help to boost growth.

UK green fund has risky but valid investor carrots

10 Jul 2024

The new government’s ‘National Wealth Fund’ is really $9 bln of public cash with capped returns. The risk is private investors slated to provide treble that figure get too good a deal. But with the UK’s energy transition requiring $64 bln a year, a degree of largesse makes sense.

India’s Russia bonhomie shows limits of bipolarity

10 Jul 2024

Narendra Modi met Vladimir Putin in Moscow on the first state visit of his third term. The $65 bln bilateral trade between the pair is booming at a time when India's business relationship with the US is shrinking. It upends popular neat visions of a bifurcating world order.

EU’s China trade weak spots hide in plain sight

9 Jul 2024

Beijing may retaliate after Brussels imposed tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. Of the 5,000 product groups the People’s Republic imports from the EU, many are too crucial or too small to bother with. But luxury goods, petrol cars and some foods are plausible targets.

Economic cycle’s age is as problematic as Biden’s

9 Jul 2024

The US president’s record is pristine when it comes to an indicator that stymied former incumbents who lost re-election: unemployment. But that’s changing, and the cumulative effect of inflation makes for a mishmash of mediocrity. For Joe Biden, the election may come too late.

Global economy finds new ways to keep growing

8 Jul 2024

Despite fears of a slowdown, world GDP is expanding at 3.5% a year, faster than in 2023. As the US engine loses thrust, Europe and emerging markets are picking up. A sluggish China and geopolitical confrontations are risks. But for now, investors can enjoy a Goldilocks moment.

French election shock puts Macron in new quandary

7 Jul 2024

The left will dominate France’s parliament after Sunday’s runoff, while Marine Le Pen’s far right suffered a surprise setback. President Emmanuel Macron will struggle to build a centrist coalition. But appointing a left-leaning prime minister would leave investors on edge.

Labour ‘open for business’ stance faces early test

5 Jul 2024

New UK PM Keir Starmer wants to boost growth and attract capital. He must balance those priorities with political anxiety about inbound investment. Companies like Royal Mail and Thames Water will show where he draws the line, and how he wields extensive powers to block M&A.

Shein maps out how to charm the world in India

5 Jul 2024

The $63 bln fast fashion giant is relaunching four years after it was banned, this time in an alliance with Mukesh Ambani's Reliance. If Shein can claw its way back into a country that aggressively curtailed Chinese interests, partnerships may be the way forward elsewhere too.