Government & Agencies

Gulf’s delicate US-China balance can easily flip

15 May 2025

Saudi and the UAE’s reliance on Silicon Valley’s talents and tech makes it easier to adhere to Washington's new Huawei chip curbs. But Beijing remains a big trading customer and is making headway in AI. The Gulf states may be in the West's camp, but they may not stay there.

Pauses, tweaks and can-kicking are new trade norms

15 May 2025

The US inked a deal with the UK and agreed to freeze triple-digit tariffs on China. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain what these agreements reveal about the Trump administration’s negotiating hand, and what trade is likely to look like in the future.

US Congress will be reluctant trade war spoiler

14 May 2025

Donald Trump has used emergency powers to justify his tariff assault. Legal challenges by US states and small businesses face an uphill climb. Congress could reclaim its trade primacy over the president – but only if the economic and political costs become too large to ignore.

Trump’s Saudi victory lap belies AI fears

13 May 2025

The president unveiled $600 bln of mooted investments between the nations, with access to cutting-edge AI chips in the mix. Yet a shock ban on silicon from China’s Huawei affirms a stark reality. The US can’t stop tech advances by rivals, so must lock the world in as a customer.

UK pension private-market punt is acceptable risk

13 May 2025

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is cajoling retirement funds to pour more money into domestic private equity, infrastructure and the like. The risk is higher losses, and a lack of the right sort of assets to invest in. Yet easing UK investors’ low-returns problem is a laudable aim.

Europe’s self-defence is battle on multiple fronts

13 May 2025

Leaders are scrambling to shore up defences against Russia while also becoming less dependent on the US. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Bruegel Senior Fellow Guntram Wolff talks about the need for a joint European body to make the increase in spending more effective.

Apple’s China detox is painful and overdue

13 May 2025

Geopolitics and trade wars have upended the iPhone maker's lucrative dependence on the People's Republic. As CEO Tim Cook seeks other supply chains, Beijing has reason to keep the giant onside. Spreading the $3 trillion company’s risks will be costly and time-consuming.

US tariff climbdown complicates bleak budget math

12 May 2025

Trump officials once touted twin benefits of reshoring supply chains and raising $600 bln from trade levies. Now-reduced charges on Chinese goods, if they stick, may make a smaller revenue bump more sustainable. Some $5 trln in proposed tax cuts, though, would overwhelm it.

US-China truce cools down trade war, for now

12 May 2025

Traders bought stocks and the dollar after the duo removed triple-digit tariffs. Beijing deflected much of the threat to its growth and showed Donald Trump will back off when consequences bite. Uncertainty and damage to US credibility endure, but it’s a significant de-escalation.

Record backlogs signal defence industry fragility

9 May 2025

Shares in European weapons makers are soaring on hopes NATO countries will boost military spending to 3% of GDP. But a mushrooming order book highlights the difficulty firms like Rheinmetall may face in meeting demand. Governments will need to help the sector build more capacity.

US exceptionalism becoming a matter of perspective

8 May 2025

American stocks trounced the rest of the world for years, as Berkshire Hathaway’s outgoing CEO Warren Buffett likes to point out. But for foreigners, it was partly thanks to a surging dollar. If those days are over, Uncle Sam’s outperformance may only persist for US investors.

US-UK trade deal offers fuzzy blueprint for others

8 May 2025

Donald Trump waived tariffs on British steel and granted quotas on car imports in return for lower levies on American beef and other products. The modest first win for the president’s trade policy represents the lowest of low-hanging fruit. It only gets harder from here.

Trump mineral plan will create bigger problems

8 May 2025

The US wants to produce more minerals like rare earths and apply tariffs on Chinese imports. Hiking production in the $325 bln market makes sense but opening new mines will take decades. In the meantime, Washington will have to scramble for limited supplies from other countries.

India hands Global Britain another second-rate win

7 May 2025

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has inked a trade pact with New Delhi, a sign the UK can strike deals quickly outside the EU. Yet some terms look skewed to India’s benefit, and the economic gains are slight. Its main appeal is to show trade upheaval has not left Britain friendless.

Attacks cloud India’s nascent safe haven status

7 May 2025

New Delhi hit sites in Pakistan and Pakistani Kashmir hours after inking a UK trade deal. Skirmishes between the nuclear-armed neighbours aren't new, but the rich world's stake in South Asia's stability is rapidly rising: the risk of escalating conflict is getting hard to ignore.

Donald Trump may help Ukraine despite himself

6 May 2025

The US president has undermined the country in its war with Russia. But his actions have some unintended benefits for Kyiv. His trade war with China means he needs Europe and may be more open to its views on Russia. Knocking the oil price also hurts Moscow, which relies on crude.

Why US-China decoupling will be hard to reverse

6 May 2025

Trade between the two economies is collapsing. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Christopher Beddor of Gavekal explains where relations could be repaired, where they could deteriorate further, and why Washington and Beijing may tacitly agree on the need to pull apart.

Trump’s Hollywood protectionism is a horror show

5 May 2025

The President said that he wants 100% tariffs on films not made in the US. If it happens, other countries could easily retaliate, a big risk to a powerhouse exporter with unique cultural sway. It’s a preview of a grim picture of the trade war’s impact beyond manufacturing.

Australia tops winners from anti-Trump elections

5 May 2025

The country joins Canada and Singapore in handing incumbent parties a strong mandate amid US global trade uncertainty. Anthony Albanese’s government faces less tariff pressure, however. He can use his mandate to push for change Down Under on everything from housing to climate.

Cargo rush belies a coming crash for US trucking

2 May 2025

A temporary surge in global freight rates, imports, and rail volumes presages supply chain whiplash for delivery firms. An expected 35% drop in Los Angeles port arrivals and stalled truck orders are early warnings. Even if tariffs are tweaked, millions of workers may be affected.