Globalisation

Ignoring migration’s roots will cost the West dear

12 Feb 2024

Politicians in the US and Europe are devoting much energy to stopping illegal migrants. But this will achieve little unless they also tackle the drivers of migration: poverty, conflict, and climate change. Otherwise, politics in the rich world will become increasingly toxic.

Pirelli CEO pivots from globalisation to trade war

5 Jun 2023

Marco Tronchetti Provera teamed up with a Chinese buyer to take the tyremaker private in 2015. Now Sinochem’s 37% stake poses business and governance risks for the $5 bln company. An appeal to Italy’s nationalist government may help the veteran industrialist maintain control.

Securonomics is fuzzy new lodestar for investors

2 Jun 2023

Globalisation, which lowered barriers for trade and financial flows, is in retreat. Taking its place is a doctrine that places national security above economic efficiency. Felix Martin argues the shift for money managers is profound – and throws up some big policy contradictions.

Hadas: Peaceful trade theory ominously unravels

17 Jul 2019

From 18th century enthusiasm for “doux commerce” to the WTO, optimists have considered trade a good antidote to combat. From the Opium Wars to Trump’s tariffs, reality has been much more conflictual. The latest round of globalisation isn’t quite dead, but is badly wounded.

Zero-sum thinking is rising risk to global growth

15 Apr 2019

U.S. President Donald Trump is not alone in doubting that globalisation helps everyone win. Finance officials at the IMF’s spring gathering wanted more cooperation but often had self-serving ideas about what that entailed. That makes even a mild downturn trickier to handle.

Viewsroom: Global elite-lite takes Davos downer

24 Jan 2019

Pessimism reigns supreme at the annual gathering in the Swiss Alps thanks to trade wars, the U.S. government shutdown and rising populism. Several major leaders stayed away entirely. The event remains a networker’s dream, but self-awareness and problem-solving are sorely lacking.

Cox: Belt and Road paving way to worrying excess

17 Apr 2018

Hallmarks of speculative exuberance abound with China's plan to recreate modern Silk Road trade routes. There are fancy new banking jobs, silly conferences and creative investment ideas. The danger is the $1.5 trln initiative devolves into an epic era of capital misallocation.

Guest view: The case for Trump’s de-globalization

12 Mar 2018

The U.S. president’s tariffs on steel and aluminum have precedents – Reagan and Bush No. 2 took similar actions. Critics worry that the globalization project of 1991-2016 is falling apart. Yet there could be benefits for the world economy and U.S. living standards.

Xi Jinping wannabes flub their lines at Davos

25 Jan 2018

Leaders including Emmanuel Macron of France and Germany’s Angela Merkel predictably spoke up for global cooperation ahead of Donald Trump’s finale. Unlike the Chinese president last year, however, their rhetoric fell flat. Competition for investment further muddles the message.

Make in India clashes with America First in Davos

23 Jan 2018

Narendra Modi and Donald Trump share strongman characteristics and both have a zero-sum approach to trade. The Indian premier needs to boost manufacturing just as the U.S. president wants to do the same. The Asian nation has the most to lose if it fails to realise its vision.

Review: Dani Rodrik gives economists a better name

6 Oct 2017

The mildly iconoclastic Harvard professor’s “Straight Talk on Trade” runs through several controversial claims, from praise of diversity in economic models to support for curbs on capital flows and unfair trade. His humility is admirable, even if his pessimism may be overdone.

Ford’s new driver veers back onto old road

20 Jun 2017

Jim Hackett is shifting production of the Focus compact to China from Mexico. The move risks angering President Trump but it’s a smart use of capital and a sign globalization isn’t dead. It’s also ex-CEO Mark Fields’ idea, proof there’s no quick fix for what ails the automaker.

Review: A premature requiem for the liberal order

26 May 2017

Globalisation is in retreat and democracy under attack. Two new books foresee a gloomy future for the Western-led economic and political system. Yet just as some were too quick to proclaim its triumph in 1989, the obituaries sparked by Donald Trump’s election may prove too hasty.

Review: Piketty is more stimulating when he’s wild

12 May 2017

Too much of the economist's bestseller on inequality was standard-issue theory. As a new anthology of essays on the book makes clear, much is wrong or missing in his reasoning. A critic’s call for "wild Piketty" rings true. The topic needs a broad, multi-disciplinary approach.

Hadas: Nationalists are united by economic muddle

26 Apr 2017

Brexit fans want freer trade, Marine Le Pen is a protectionist and Donald Trump can’t make up his mind. Populists also disagree on fiscal deficits and industrial policy. What they share is an aversion to the truth that national prosperity starts with compromises on sovereignty.

Review: A flawed compass for post-Brexit Britain

31 Mar 2017

The vote to leave the European Union exposed a new political fault line, David Goodhart argues in “The Road to Somewhere”. The solution is for cosmopolitan elites to share more power with those left behind. The tension is real, but the distinction too broad to be a useful guide.

Dutch election exposes fragility of mainstream

13 Mar 2017

This week’s vote is a test of Europe’s anti-elite mood. But the focus on right-wing firebrand Geert Wilders ignores a fragmentation in support for traditional parties. That is an obstacle to forming a stable government in the Netherlands - and for decision-making in the EU.

Protectionism skews emerging market risk compass

9 Mar 2017

Anti-trade rhetoric is a threat to export-dependent countries. But commodity producers such as Saudi Arabia are less vulnerable than nations that play a big role in global manufacturing, like China or Thailand. The latter look more prone to market volatility than in the past.

Post-truth data will come back to bite Uncle Sam

21 Feb 2017

Donald Trump's economic team may tweak trade figures to make deficits look bigger, helping his push for tariffs. Though politicians have always cherry-picked numbers, fiddling with actual statistics threatens confidence. It also raises expectations Trump will struggle to meet.

Hadas: Trump’s FX truthiness misses the big points

20 Feb 2017

The U.S. president’s complaint that cheap overseas currencies hurt U.S. jobs contains a little truth, but his proposed cure is far worse than the disease. The main problem in foreign exchange is excess volatility. Fixing that requires better global coordination – a distant dream.