The ghost of Instagram haunts Microsoft’s future 9 Dec 2022 When Facebook bought the photo-sharing site in 2012, regulators failed to see Mark Zuckerberg’s larger vision. Now the FTC is trying to block Microsoft’s $69 bln Activision deal, partly to stop future domination. Fighting on qualitative terms seems unfair but is inevitable.
Blackstone feeds private-market valuation fears 1 Dec 2022 The buyout shop is limiting redemptions from a $125 bln real estate fund after investors flooded it with requests, echoing a broader selloff in publicly traded peers. Limiting withdrawals risks a dangerous feedback loop. And a profitable Las Vegas deal offers limited reassurance.
Tencent’s investor giveaway buys welcome respite 16 Nov 2022 The Chinese web giant is handing a $20 bln stake in food delivery firm Meituan to shareholders. The second such move in a year comes on top of increased share buybacks. The focus on boosting returns goes a long way to make up for slowing growth in Tencent’s video-game business.
Capital Calls: Adidas 21 Oct 2022 Concise views on global finance: The 19 bln euro sportswear maker slashed its 2022 revenue outlook, dragging shares down 10%.
There’s method to Saudi’s $38 bln gaming madness 11 Oct 2022 Riyadh says it will splash out to become “the ultimate global hub” for gaming by 2030. Saudi and the freewheeling sector are peculiar bedfellows. But with a petrodollar windfall and falling valuations, the kingdom has a good opportunity to make its unlikely vision happen.
Capital Calls: Google and gaming 30 Sep 2022 Concise views on global finance: The search giant is binning “cloud gaming” service Stadia three years after its launch.
Macau keeps poker face on its gambling future 29 Sep 2022 Beijing is allowing punters back to the Chinese gaming enclave but the odds of a full recovery are long. Gambling looks increasingly out of sync with Xi Jinping’s bigger policy priorities. As casinos including Sands and Wynn apply to renew licenses, the future looks less golden.
Cohn SPAC investors choose cash over connections 26 Sep 2022 Goldman Sachs alum Gary Cohn’s blank-check firm ended a $9 bln merger with lottery operator Allwyn after 91% of his shareholders asked for their cash back. Cohn had touted the value of his deal nous and contacts. The case for paying up for those qualities has got less persuasive.
Capital Calls: Sea’s distress call 21 Sep 2022 Concise views on global finance: The boss of Singapore’s $26 bln e-commerce to video-games outfit has laid out plans to achieve financial self-sufficiency, sending a wake-up call to other cash-burning peers in the region.
Mutual funds’ private bets could use more daylight 14 Sep 2022 The tech stock rout has done little to dent money managers like Fidelity or T. Rowe Price’s zeal for unlisted companies. In some cases, such holdings have performed better than public shares. Yet illiquid stocks bring fresh risks, and disclosure on how they are valued is patchy.
Capital Calls: Richemont’s activist spat 7 Sep 2022 Concise views on global finance: Shareholders at the Cartier owner rejected investor Bluebell’s attempt to install former Bulgari CEO Francesco Trapani on the board.
Tencent is running in two different directions 17 Aug 2022 The Chinese video game giant suffered a 43% plunge in operating profit from falling markets and a weak economy. Boss Pony Ma is cutting costs and promising buybacks, but he also is pushing on overseas expansion and new businesses like cloud. The message on discipline is garbled.
Gaming’s big comedown will be spread unevenly 12 Aug 2022 The sector has changed radically since 2008. It weathered Covid with ease, but it’s hard to say how cash-strapped gamers will fare in another recession. Reliable franchises like EA’s “FIFA” could end up more valuable, while the demise of buzzier upstarts may create M&A openings.
Capital Calls: Entain’s big M&A bet 11 Aug 2022 Concise views on global finance: The Ladbrokes owner is bulking up, making life harder for perennial U.S. suitor MGM Resorts International.
Video game deal battle could leave one victor 9 Aug 2022 The $14 bln app software firm, AppLovin, has launched an unsolicited $17.5 bln bid for rival Unity. The odds are probably stacked against the buyer because the offer looks opportunistic and has a small premium. Yet it may kill Unity’s even less attractive deal to buy IronSource.
Capital Calls: LVMH succession, Swedish Match 22 Jul 2022 Concise views on global finance: Bernard Arnault insures the luxury group against future family feuds; the oral tobacco company’s results will embolden deal resisters.
Video game deal shows late-cycle identity crisis 13 Jul 2022 Graphics-maker Unity is buying Israeli ad-tech firm IronSource for $4.4 bln, a 94% premium. That suggests optimism. But insider Silver Lake will make a $1 bln convertible investment while Unity buys back stock, buffering dilution. Classically, smart investors protect themselves.
Deal odds in the face of market pain 19 May 2022 Market pain is changing the math for arbitrageurs, as targets' shares may drop further if mergers fail. A Breakingviews calculator shows the odds of a deal going through. Run the numbers here.
Market rout throws off math for open deals 18 May 2022 Unlike Twitter, whose shares dived on Elon Musk’s waning enthusiasm for his $44 bln offer, other stocks pending a deal are down on little news. Market pain changes the math for arbitrageurs as target shares may drop further if mergers fail. A Breakingviews calculator shows how.
Tech unicorns become zombies 13 May 2022 Companies like Peloton, Carvana and DraftKings hit up investors for cheap capital to bolster balance sheets over the past years. But they haven’t used the cash to sort out business models – and they continue to burn through it. They have varying cushion but may already be dead.