Fossil Fuels

China’s Middle East agenda gets harder to manage

23 Oct 2023

The country’s private refineries have been snapping up over 90% of Iran’s cheap crude exports. Tighter US sanctions in the face of the Islamic Republic’s support for Hamas could turn these customers away. That would cut across Chinese efforts to grow influence in the region.

China is swing factor in diesel’s global squeeze

5 Oct 2023

Russia’s export ban on the fuel may prove a temporary scare. But low inventories in the US and Europe, spiking crude prices and a colder winter could keep it in short supply. The key variable, though, is whether China helps ease the pressure by raising export quotas.

Big oil lawsuits are riskier than quitting tobacco

18 Sep 2023

California is suing fossil-fuel companies, alleging tens of billions in climate-related damages. Decades of litigation forced tobacco firms to pay up. The tension is that, while global warming’s ravages imply higher costs, US oil production is crucial amid tightening supply.

BP CEO exit raises strategy and board questions

14 Sep 2023

Bernard Looney resigned after he failed to disclose past relationships with staff. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate what that means for the oil giant’s commitment to net zero, and whether BP’s board did all it could have done.

BP succession fail puts spotlight on its board

14 Sep 2023

Chair Helge Lund and his colleagues could have lined up a replacement for now-departed boss Bernard Looney when issues over his conduct surfaced last year. They didn’t. Before rushing to appoint a new CEO at the $110 bln oil group, they should interrogate their own performance.

How Europe can square the circle on green economy

1 Aug 2023

Shifting away from fossil fuels is an opportunity for the bloc, argues economy tsar Paolo Gentiloni in this Exchange podcast. But it will have to overcome challenges, such as US competition for investment and the EU’s own narrow set of financial tools.

Capital Calls: Uber’s road trip to redemption

1 Aug 2023

Concise views on global finance: The $95 bln ride-sharing firm notched its first operating profit and more than doubled free cash flow, but its valuation is lagging.

Shell may as well try green plug for valuation gap

27 Jul 2023

The $204 bln group’s shares have outperformed US rivals since it flagged a renewed focus on oil, but still lag Chevron and Exxon Mobil. New boss Wael Sawan could try to close the gap by listing his green energy bits. It’s not certain to work, but is better than more buybacks.

Glencore deal epitomises net zero’s reduced status

27 Jul 2023

The $75 bln miner used to argue it was better to wind down its coal assets than sell them to a less responsible owner. Now CEO Gary Nagle wants to buy a rival and spin off the enlarged coal unit. Investors, distracted by energy security and fat profits, are unlikely to stop him.

Robin Hood tariff could curb airline emissions

24 Jul 2023

The aviation industry doesn’t pay duty on fuel despite causing 4% of global warming. A tax would promote cleaner energy and raise billions of dollars, but poor countries oppose it. Rich nations could break the logjam by giving some proceeds to the less well-off, says Hugo Dixon.

EU has to come clean on costs of green transition

18 Jul 2023

Europe’s race towards net zero carbon emissions will require energy investments of nearly 2% of GDP. And it will cause economic pain in the short term before benefits kick in. Unless governments explain how the bill will be shared, they risk a populist backlash.

European gas security rests on a fragile balance

14 Jul 2023

Mindful of last summer’s mad price rally, EU states have lots of the fossil fuel in storage. This, plus higher Chinese purchases, may keep European contracts below Asian ones. But that may prompt US cargoes of liquefied gas to head East, lifting European gas prices again.

How to crack the climate free rider problem

10 Jul 2023

One reason countries fiddle while the world burns is that they bear the costs of action while everyone benefits. Creating a “climate club” would incentivise nations to pull their weight. But a lot of geopolitical stars first need to align, says Hugo Dixon.

Peak oil is another reason to shun OPEC club

26 Jun 2023

The oil-producing organization wants Guyana to join, but the tiny South American nation prefers to pump while it can. Cartels are difficult to maintain at the best of times because members can cheat. When future demand is finite, there’s even less incentive to cooperate.

Eni’s bet on gas comes at an acceptable price

23 Jun 2023

The Italian group and Var Energi, in which it holds a 63% stake, are buying Neptune Energy for $4.9 bln. The seller’s private equity owners once hoped for an IPO at twice that level. Bulking up in fossil fuels carries risks, but Eni’s price at least creates some sort of buffer.

Green alliance crisis is more than just a US drama

19 Jun 2023

Most insurers have quit their industry’s UN-backed climate body. Sector specifics and fear of US lawsuits partly explain why, but so do European governments focusing on energy security rather than net-zero targets. The same dynamic may affect banks and fund managers.

Capital Calls: Oil M&A, Bud backlash, L&G’s CEO

15 Jun 2023

Concise views on global finance: Two oil-well servicers find a way to make decline more palatable, while brewer Anheuser-Busch discovers that money doesn’t always buy friends in politics. In the UK, insurer L&G picks a new CEO to try and address its Brexit discount.

Shell makes risky pitch for the middle ground

14 Jun 2023

The $195 bln group’s new CEO Wael Sawan boosted shareholder payouts and refrained from new oil output cuts. His bet is that Shell can echo US peers by lingering in oil, while placing its green bets on less tricky low-carbon areas than European rivals. It’s not certain to work.

Saudi’s oil lollipop reflects its sticky situation

5 Jun 2023

The kingdom has secured OPEC+ consent to extend output cuts into 2024, and will also lop another 1 mln barrels off its own daily production. But if traders bought OPEC’s demand forecasts, oil prices should be higher anyway. Saudi may also struggle to slash output any further.

IPO pops are iffy adverts for Gulf capital markets

1 Jun 2023

ADNOC L&S, like other floats by the UAE energy giant, surged on its first day of trading. Yet the 50% rise looks contrived. Abu Dhabi’s listings boom is narrow, and mostly involves state-linked firms. Its dreams of being a go-to destination for global capital are remote.