Fossil Fuels

Capital Calls: Angola and OPEC

21 Dec 2023

Concise views on global finance: The African state’s decision to quit the oil producer group isn’t a huge deal in the short term, but will raise fears of more meaningful exits.

BP and Equinor will find common ground

20 Dec 2023

The British oil major is undervalued against peers and is in a leadership vacuum. That makes it vulnerable to a takeover as US mega-mergers shake up the sector. Daring to tie up with Norwegian ally Equinor offers a powerful hedge and a springboard.

Santa puts coal stocks in stockings for last time

19 Dec 2023

Producers of the dirty fuel, like Peabody and Arch Resources, have generated excellent returns over the past two years, a trend that may continue in the near term. But government policies are rapidly eroding demand. Fewer investors will want the shares in Christmases future.

COP28 deal just about keeps net zero on the road

13 Dec 2023

Nations at the climate shindig agreed to start transitioning away from fossil fuels. The wording could have been tougher and clearer, and the world still faces harmful warming. But the Dubai meeting could have yielded a damaging standstill, rather than a baby step forward.

Global energy fissures are a risk for the West

12 Dec 2023

Falling oil prices despite recent cuts imply a weak OPEC+. Yet the producer group may increasingly align with other emerging market states on areas like Russia and climate change. In this Exchange podcast commodities expert Helima Croft says that’s an issue for Europe and the US.

COP28 wrestles with the nuances of binning oil

7 Dec 2023

The global climate conference in Dubai has seen its fossil fuel-rich UAE host criticised for appearing to contest the need to phase out crude. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how the picture is a bit more complex.

Real big energy: Exxon and Chevron swim upstream

26 Oct 2023

The two US oil titans unveiled acquisitions worth more than $100 bln combined within weeks of each other. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss what’s powering the renewed consolidation push, as well as the threats posed to the industry by a greener market.

China’s Middle East agenda gets harder to manage

23 Oct 2023

The country’s private refineries have been snapping up over 90% of Iran’s cheap crude exports. Tighter US sanctions in the face of the Islamic Republic’s support for Hamas could turn these customers away. That would cut across Chinese efforts to grow influence in the region.

China is swing factor in diesel’s global squeeze

5 Oct 2023

Russia’s export ban on the fuel may prove a temporary scare. But low inventories in the US and Europe, spiking crude prices and a colder winter could keep it in short supply. The key variable, though, is whether China helps ease the pressure by raising export quotas.

Big oil lawsuits are riskier than quitting tobacco

18 Sep 2023

California is suing fossil-fuel companies, alleging tens of billions in climate-related damages. Decades of litigation forced tobacco firms to pay up. The tension is that, while global warming’s ravages imply higher costs, US oil production is crucial amid tightening supply.

BP CEO exit raises strategy and board questions

14 Sep 2023

Bernard Looney resigned after he failed to disclose past relationships with staff. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate what that means for the oil giant’s commitment to net zero, and whether BP’s board did all it could have done.

BP succession fail puts spotlight on its board

14 Sep 2023

Chair Helge Lund and his colleagues could have lined up a replacement for now-departed boss Bernard Looney when issues over his conduct surfaced last year. They didn’t. Before rushing to appoint a new CEO at the $110 bln oil group, they should interrogate their own performance.

How Europe can square the circle on green economy

1 Aug 2023

Shifting away from fossil fuels is an opportunity for the bloc, argues economy tsar Paolo Gentiloni in this Exchange podcast. But it will have to overcome challenges, such as US competition for investment and the EU’s own narrow set of financial tools.

Capital Calls: Uber’s road trip to redemption

1 Aug 2023

Concise views on global finance: The $95 bln ride-sharing firm notched its first operating profit and more than doubled free cash flow, but its valuation is lagging.

Shell may as well try green plug for valuation gap

27 Jul 2023

The $204 bln group’s shares have outperformed US rivals since it flagged a renewed focus on oil, but still lag Chevron and Exxon Mobil. New boss Wael Sawan could try to close the gap by listing his green energy bits. It’s not certain to work, but is better than more buybacks.

Glencore deal epitomises net zero’s reduced status

27 Jul 2023

The $75 bln miner used to argue it was better to wind down its coal assets than sell them to a less responsible owner. Now CEO Gary Nagle wants to buy a rival and spin off the enlarged coal unit. Investors, distracted by energy security and fat profits, are unlikely to stop him.

Robin Hood tariff could curb airline emissions

24 Jul 2023

The aviation industry doesn’t pay duty on fuel despite causing 4% of global warming. A tax would promote cleaner energy and raise billions of dollars, but poor countries oppose it. Rich nations could break the logjam by giving some proceeds to the less well-off, says Hugo Dixon.

EU has to come clean on costs of green transition

18 Jul 2023

Europe’s race towards net zero carbon emissions will require energy investments of nearly 2% of GDP. And it will cause economic pain in the short term before benefits kick in. Unless governments explain how the bill will be shared, they risk a populist backlash.

European gas security rests on a fragile balance

14 Jul 2023

Mindful of last summer’s mad price rally, EU states have lots of the fossil fuel in storage. This, plus higher Chinese purchases, may keep European contracts below Asian ones. But that may prompt US cargoes of liquefied gas to head East, lifting European gas prices again.

How to crack the climate free rider problem

10 Jul 2023

One reason countries fiddle while the world burns is that they bear the costs of action while everyone benefits. Creating a “climate club” would incentivise nations to pull their weight. But a lot of geopolitical stars first need to align, says Hugo Dixon.