Fossil Fuels

BP takeover is both appealing and daunting

12 Apr 2024

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company recently considered buying its $110 bln British peer. It’s unlikely to be the only suitor. BP trades at a discount to other oil giants and recently installed a new CEO. But UK security concerns and EU antitrust rules present formidable hurdles.

Next Chinese trade war could benefit the planet

8 Apr 2024

As Beijing floods the world with cheap green goods, the West will put up trade barriers. That will delay the energy transition in the United States and EU. But the glut of EVs, solar panels and the like will speed it up in China and much of the Global South.

UAE flips own script with $4 bln oil pipeline deal

5 Apr 2024

Abu Dhabi’s $100 bln fund, Lunate, bought KKR and BlackRock’s 40% stake in ADNOC’s infrastructure arm. In recent years the UAE has raised cash from foreign investors by selling minority stakes in its oil giant. The latest deal does the opposite.

Eni’s green shoots are taking time to blossom

28 Mar 2024

Italy’s $53 bln energy major trades at a discount to rivals. An overhang from Rome’s potential stake sale and falling gas prices are drags. But CEO Claudio Descalzi’s plan to raise cash by spinning off energy transition-focused business units is also yet to fully shape up.

LNG angst seeps from consumers to producers

27 Mar 2024

A few years ago, supplies of liquefied natural gas were scarce and prices sky-high. Extra capacity arriving this decade means there could soon be a price-sapping glut. Big suppliers like Qatar and Shell have long-term contracts that can ease the pain, but only up to a point.

Capital Calls: Shell and Russia

26 Mar 2024

Concise views on global finance: Russian state giant Gazprom will buy the British energy major’s 27.5% stake in a major Siberian liquefied gas field for the equivalent of $1 bln. Shell is however unlikely to be able to get hold of the cash any time soon.

RWE has a way out of its valuation hole

14 Mar 2024

The $26 bln German power utility has lost 22% of its market value this year. Low gas prices, higher rates and a lingering presence in polluting lignite are reasons why. The first two ought not to persist as headaches, and the last is something RWE could do more about.

Strategic clarity fuels US oil giants’ M&A spree

23 Feb 2024

Exxon Mobil and Chevron are buying up rival drillers on expectations that demand for crude will still be robust in 2050. European rivals like Shell are less bullish about oil, but reluctant to pile headlong into green energy. That helps explain the transatlantic valuation gap.

Capital Calls: Oil M&A

22 Feb 2024

Concise views on global finance: The $11 billion Williston Basin combination of Chord Energy and Enerplus lacks the wow factor of Exxon’s and Chevron’s mega-mergers, but there are sufficient savings to suggest more deals will be on the way.

Oil investors are adrift in Red Sea rip currents

9 Feb 2024

Crude prices at around $80 a barrel are lower than in early October despite conflict in Gaza, attacks on shipping vessels off Yemen, and US-Iran tensions. That reflects expectations of weak demand and ample supply, underpinned by lax sanctions. All three could soon change.

Woodside torches Santos’ quick activist fix

7 Feb 2024

The oil and gas driller ended talks with its smaller rival about a $52 bln merger Down Under. A deal always looked hard. But it could have got investors off Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher’s back. Now he’ll have to try the slower route of capital returns, cost cuts and asset sales.

Red Sea oil tension may revive Russia-Saudi spat

22 Jan 2024

Exchanges of fire between Yemen’s Houthis and the US military have hiked costs for Moscow to ship oil via the Suez Canal to China and India. One upshot could be Russia loses market share to Saudi Arabia. That may reopen the sort of tensions that led to the duo’s 2020 price war.

Shell will be tempted to join US M&A party

5 Jan 2024

With rivals Exxon Mobil and Chevron doing chunky deals, the $214 bln European oil major may wish to follow suit. A pitch for $30 bln Permian player Endeavor is affordable and arguably logical. But it would test how far CEO Wael Sawan can realistically pivot back to fossil fuels.

Capital Calls: Angola and OPEC

21 Dec 2023

Concise views on global finance: The African state’s decision to quit the oil producer group isn’t a huge deal in the short term, but will raise fears of more meaningful exits.

BP and Equinor will find common ground

20 Dec 2023

The British oil major is undervalued against peers and is in a leadership vacuum. That makes it vulnerable to a takeover as US mega-mergers shake up the sector. Daring to tie up with Norwegian ally Equinor offers a powerful hedge and a springboard.

Santa puts coal stocks in stockings for last time

19 Dec 2023

Producers of the dirty fuel, like Peabody and Arch Resources, have generated excellent returns over the past two years, a trend that may continue in the near term. But government policies are rapidly eroding demand. Fewer investors will want the shares in Christmases future.

COP28 deal just about keeps net zero on the road

13 Dec 2023

Nations at the climate shindig agreed to start transitioning away from fossil fuels. The wording could have been tougher and clearer, and the world still faces harmful warming. But the Dubai meeting could have yielded a damaging standstill, rather than a baby step forward.

Global energy fissures are a risk for the West

12 Dec 2023

Falling oil prices despite recent cuts imply a weak OPEC+. Yet the producer group may increasingly align with other emerging market states on areas like Russia and climate change. In this Exchange podcast commodities expert Helima Croft says that’s an issue for Europe and the US.

COP28 wrestles with the nuances of binning oil

7 Dec 2023

The global climate conference in Dubai has seen its fossil fuel-rich UAE host criticised for appearing to contest the need to phase out crude. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how the picture is a bit more complex.

Real big energy: Exxon and Chevron swim upstream

26 Oct 2023

The two US oil titans unveiled acquisitions worth more than $100 bln combined within weeks of each other. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss what’s powering the renewed consolidation push, as well as the threats posed to the industry by a greener market.