Fossil Fuels

Shell helps avoid net-zero focus on climate change

16 Apr 2020

The oil major has followed BP in toughening its long-term carbon reduction ambitions. As with those of peers, the new goals are still not much more than a start. Still, with Covid-19 forcing Big Oil into crisis mode, their main virtue is to keep global warming on the radar.

Buffett may end up Occidental’s owner-by-accident

15 Apr 2020

The Sage of Omaha struck a clever deal with the shale driller by investing $10 bln through preferred shares. Now the oil price has halved, and on paper Occidental’s regular equity may be almost worthless. The true price of Buffett’s help is becoming clear.

Flaky oil output cuts will favour Saudi Arabia

15 Apr 2020

Supply curbs brokered by the United States make President Donald Trump look like a big winner. But the deal isn’t robust and won’t lift crude prices enough to prevent some U.S. shale producers from going bust. Riyadh could end up with a bigger market share once the dust settles.

OPEC throws sand in wheels of oil’s runaway train

9 Apr 2020

The producer group and allies like Russia are set to knock one-tenth off global daily oil output. The cut, which could rise if other countries agree to join in, might start draining the epic glut holding down prices. But it won’t do much if the Covid-19 demand slump persists.

Climate fight at Mizuho previews wider clash

9 Apr 2020

An investor group is urging the $29 bln finance giant to reduce lending for coal. With Japan in a state of coronavirus emergency, it’s an odd time to pick this battle, nor is Mizuho in charge of national energy policy – the real problem. But activists have to start somewhere.

Brazen Trump oil claims may yet fire partial deal

2 Apr 2020

A day before meeting with beleaguered U.S. crude-industry execs, the American president predicted an epic supply cut by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Yet he may only need a chunk of the 10 mln barrels a day reduction he’s hoping for to keep the U.S. shale industry from total collapse.

Big Oil might be a weird stock market haven

2 Apr 2020

Shares in the world’s big five listed crude producers are down by over a third since January. Yet despite the global oil slump, their dividends look secure for now. Rock-bottom prices would have to last well into 2021 for credit ratings or payouts to be in serious doubt.

Corona Capital: Uncle Sam’s penchant for boutiques

2 Apr 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout. The U.S. government has given a boost to independent investment banks by hiring Moelis. Perella Weinberg and PJT are its bailout advisers. Megabanks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, are left on the shelf.

Rosneft Venezuela exit is not as good as it looks

30 Mar 2020

The $41 bln oil giant is selling its operations in the country to the Russian state to avoid more sanctions. Moscow is making a generous share payment but in practice keeps voting control. It’s a cheap way for the government to protect a key asset and send a message to the U.S.

Oil storage crisis is new threat to OPEC

25 Mar 2020

The double whammy of a Saudi Arabia-led price war and a virus-fuelled collapse in demand points to a huge oversupply of crude this year. Space to store the surplus may run out at this rate. If that’s exhausted, a barrel of the commodity could soon be worth less than $20.

Oil price war bolsters case for U.S. renewables

24 Mar 2020

The Saudi-Russia black-gold spat has drilled a hole in American energy suppliers’ finances and the country’s hopes for energy independence. Bailing out fossil-fuel companies is an option, but a more decisive switch to cleaner energy could make self-sufficiency an attainable goal.

Trump can make oil markets balance in his favour

20 Mar 2020

To hike low crude prices, the U.S. President needs a big producer to cut supply. He already has leverage over Saudi Arabia and more scope to threaten Russia with sanctions. Add in output curbs by shale, and a path exists to keep American producers afloat but oil values in check.

Oxy victory would help Icahn’s poor oil-patch rep

12 Mar 2020

By raising his stake in Occidental Petroleum, the activist has upped the odds of getting his way, or reaching a truce. It helps that his demands – a new CEO and a sale of the company – both make sense. A trail of rocky energy investments means Icahn could use a high-profile win.

Viewsroom: Oil shock

12 Mar 2020

A major rift between Saudi Arabia and Russia has sent oil prices plummeting just as the Covid-19 outbreak saps demand. The fallout is pummeling U.S. shale producers and calling traditional energy-security concepts into question. Plus, market fallout in Japan, China and India.

Occidental divi cut puts Buffett in driver’s seat

10 Mar 2020

The oil driller slashed its payout in response to crude prices plummeting. That is the last straw for CEO Vicki Hollub, who staked her credibility on a debt-fuelled purchase of Anadarko. Oxy now looks like an appealing M&A morsel, though all hangs on kingmaker Warren Buffett.

Oil slump puts African states on devaluation hook

10 Mar 2020

Hydrocarbons account for 90% of exports in Nigeria and Angola, despite years of talk about diversification. With crude at $36 a barrel, they’re both in trouble. Speedy devaluation means inflation-related pain but should help make the shift to a greener, low-carbon future.

Big Oil’s wipeout invites a new sort of activist

9 Mar 2020

Plunging crude prices have sent BP shares down 20%, with Shell and Total close behind. The rout could make it harder for oil majors to shift away from fossil fuels. Dirt-cheap valuations offer a way for activists to push CEOs to cut investment and return cash to shareholders.

Saudi sets global oil a stress test few will pass

9 Mar 2020

An all-out price war launched by the kingdom crashed the crude price over 20%. Values well below $40 a barrel are a setback for U.S. shale producers, global oil majors, national budgets, and the climate change fight. At least Saudi oil giant Aramco will share the short-term pain.

OPEC Russian roulette yields circular firing squad

6 Mar 2020

Moscow has rejected the cartel’s pleas for a supply cut to ease a virus-linked demand slump. Given the scale of the oil market imbalance, an inadequate deal was the best that could have been hoped for. But OPEC’s efforts to force the issue look like leaving everyone worse off.

Exxon positions as the climate-doubter’s choice

5 Mar 2020

Boss Darren Woods has reaffirmed he is actively pursuing fossil-fuel projects as rivals cut back. Success would bolster Exxon’s dismal returns. But Woods’ faith in Big Oil’s longevity makes the U.S. oil giant something of an outlier. At least investors have options.