Fossil Fuels

Chevron is M&A-ready. Exxon, not so much.

30 Apr 2020

The oil-price rout has left small and mid-tier U.S. drillers in pain and ripe for takeovers. Major players are hurting too, but Chevron, though not as big as Exxon, has been more prudent with cash and debt, and its stock has held up better. Occidental may even be in its sights.

Shell’s dividend surrender is a necessary evil

30 Apr 2020

Given it hadn’t reduced shareholder payouts since WW2, the Anglo-Dutch major’s two-thirds cut hurts its pride. But amid an epic price crash boss Ben van Beurden couldn’t have kept Shell’s rating and paid to transition from oil. Stubbornly clinging on would have been even worse.

U.S. oil bailout should pay to still the drill

28 Apr 2020

The White House is mulling how to keep the fossil-fuel industry afloat. Emergency loans or equity stakes have many drawbacks. Compensating companies for keeping black gold in the ground has risks, too. But it would give Uncle Sam a semblance of control over demand and price.

BP’s dividend sangfroid may not last long

28 Apr 2020

The oil giant held its payout steady in the first quarter, despite crude prices falling off a cliff. CEO Bernard Looney has enough cash to keep it up this year. But debt has spiked and oil is now even cheaper. At the very least BP should let investors take dividends in shares.

Oil market inferno claims victims of all sizes

24 Apr 2020

This week’s price crash in U.S. crude looks an age-old example of small retail investors getting burned while savvy institutional players supply the matches. That does seem to have been part of the story. But some professional money managers probably also got singed.

Corona Capital: Primed debt, Lysol

24 Apr 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Senior creditors get “primed”; Reckitt Benckiser warns customers not to inject Lysol.

Russia’s oil-and-virus airbag is robust but finite

24 Apr 2020

The double whammy of a crude price collapse and Covid-19 could cause a hefty budget deficit. Moscow’s $170 bln wealth fund can plug a hole worth 5% of GDP if need be. The issue is more the optics of raiding the piggy bank while looking relatively stingy on subsidising wages.

Viewsroom: The F’d up oil market

23 Apr 2020

Breakingviews columnists in London, Mumbai and Brooklyn discuss what’s going on in the global energy markets amid the coronavirus crisis, as well as Facebook’s big Indian deal and the U.S. government’s attempt to prop up small businesses with the Paycheck Protection Program.

Corona Capital: Merger bans, Moelis, Domino’s Pizza

23 Apr 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: U.S. politicians plan a curb on opportunistic M&A, advisory boutique Moelis cuts its dividend, and Domino's delivers.

SEC puts small plug in oil ETF loss gusher

21 Apr 2020

The U.S. agency has stopped USO, a popular exchange-traded fund used by investors to bet on oil, from creating new shares. Stemming the fund’s growth may help trading in a futures market wracked by negative prices. But it won’t stop its investors facing huge losses.

Sub-zero oil trauma rips off investors’ blinkers

21 Apr 2020

A day after the cost of U.S. crude for delivery in May turned negative, the price of June contracts for both West Texas Intermediate and Brent fell by a fifth. Investors are having to face up to a supply glut that is outstripping storage capacity. Prices may fall to zero again.

Oil’s big crash is more rational than it looks

20 Apr 2020

U.S. one-month crude futures went below zero for the first time ever on Monday. With the May contract about to expire, the slump is partly driven by technical factors. But the wider panic – that recent output cuts won’t stop storage being filled – couldn’t be any more real.

Dividend cuts are the new shareholder-value trade

17 Apr 2020

Schlumberger’s stock surged after the company slashed its payout by 75%. Granted, it’s because investors are now more comfortable with the $19 bln oil-services firm’s balance sheet. But as virus pain spreads across industries, ditching dividends’ sacrosanct status is a must.

Shell helps avoid net-zero focus on climate change

16 Apr 2020

The oil major has followed BP in toughening its long-term carbon reduction ambitions. As with those of peers, the new goals are still not much more than a start. Still, with Covid-19 forcing Big Oil into crisis mode, their main virtue is to keep global warming on the radar.

Buffett may end up Occidental’s owner-by-accident

15 Apr 2020

The Sage of Omaha struck a clever deal with the shale driller by investing $10 bln through preferred shares. Now the oil price has halved, and on paper Occidental’s regular equity may be almost worthless. The true price of Buffett’s help is becoming clear.

Flaky oil output cuts will favour Saudi Arabia

15 Apr 2020

Supply curbs brokered by the United States make President Donald Trump look like a big winner. But the deal isn’t robust and won’t lift crude prices enough to prevent some U.S. shale producers from going bust. Riyadh could end up with a bigger market share once the dust settles.

OPEC throws sand in wheels of oil’s runaway train

9 Apr 2020

The producer group and allies like Russia are set to knock one-tenth off global daily oil output. The cut, which could rise if other countries agree to join in, might start draining the epic glut holding down prices. But it won’t do much if the Covid-19 demand slump persists.

Climate fight at Mizuho previews wider clash

9 Apr 2020

An investor group is urging the $29 bln finance giant to reduce lending for coal. With Japan in a state of coronavirus emergency, it’s an odd time to pick this battle, nor is Mizuho in charge of national energy policy – the real problem. But activists have to start somewhere.

Brazen Trump oil claims may yet fire partial deal

2 Apr 2020

A day before meeting with beleaguered U.S. crude-industry execs, the American president predicted an epic supply cut by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Yet he may only need a chunk of the 10 mln barrels a day reduction he’s hoping for to keep the U.S. shale industry from total collapse.

Big Oil might be a weird stock market haven

2 Apr 2020

Shares in the world’s big five listed crude producers are down by over a third since January. Yet despite the global oil slump, their dividends look secure for now. Rock-bottom prices would have to last well into 2021 for credit ratings or payouts to be in serious doubt.