Fossil Fuels

OPEC maintains illusion of control over oil price

15 Jul 2020

The producer group and allies stuck to plans to hike output, after coordinating a huge cut in April. While that will soothe jittery oil traders, a second virus wave would ruin the calm. And the more prices rise, the harder it will be to stop members pumping what they like.

Corona Capital: Tesla, OPEC

2 Jul 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Tesla speeds past its traditional rivals, and OPEC’s next meeting shapes up to be a bruising encounter.

Oil majors’ Atlantic divide shows up in valuation

2 Jul 2020

U.S. and European producers’ divergence in climate change action is becoming increasingly obvious. Yet investors value Exxon Mobil and Chevron higher than Royal Dutch Shell and BP. At least for now, investors seem reluctant to view energy transition awareness as a good thing.

Tesla market milestone puts Musk pay in overdrive

1 Jul 2020

The Silicon Valley upstart has overtaken Toyota to become the world’s largest carmaker by market worth. Its rapid ride to a $210 bln value also starts the clock on another huge payout for CEO Elon Musk. But production and income show investors have gotten ahead of themselves.

Corona Capital: Drug hoarding, Vacation-free world

1 Jul 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Stockpiling of Covid-19 treatment remdesivir may come back to haunt the Trump administration, while a forecast of $3.3 trillion in lost tourism is more than an inconvenience for some national economies.

Corona Capital: U.S. recovery, Small-business aid

30 Jun 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: White House virus adviser Anthony Fauci’s estimate that U.S. cases could breach 100,000 a day is bad news for the economy. Plus: Uncle Sam’s loan program for small businesses comes to an end with money in the bank.

Bankrupt shale pioneer’s backers need new model

29 Jun 2020

Chesapeake enters Chapter 11 with funding to come out again. Supportive creditors may be right that there’s a future in U.S. fracking, which the firm helped develop. But making money was hard when borrowing and dealmaking were easy. It’ll be even tougher as climate risk bites.

BP’s $5 bln chemicals sale is easy bridge to burn

29 Jun 2020

The UK oil major is offloading its remaining petrochemicals assets to privately held Ineos. Selling out of a growth area for an unspectacular price would usually seem like a strategic goof. But BP was a small player, and CEO Bernard Looney needs cash for his zero-carbon pivot.

BP’s funky debt charts end of credit’s lockdown

18 Jun 2020

The oil major issued $12 bln of bonds that count as equity, its first such deal. Investors’ hunger for esoteric securities from a tricky sector illustrates their enduring need for yield, thanks to central bank largesse. A weak economy and risk-hungry markets are a dangerous mix.

Aramco’s SABIC saga ends in unhappy compromise

17 Jun 2020

The $69 bln that the oil giant has ended up paying for a 70% stake in the chemicals firm is a lot more than its current value. Aramco’s consolation is that it can pay SABIC’s owner, a Saudi wealth fund, over a longer period. But neither buyer nor seller is getting what they want.

BP’s greener credentials sharpen focus on dividend

15 Jun 2020

The energy giant is writing off up to $17.5 bln after slashing long-term oil price forecasts. BP’s green transition would get an extra boost if it cut dividends to spend more on low-carbon output. But as Royal Dutch Shell has found, that irks investors it needs to keep sweet.

Oil prices are stuck in a narrow tunnel

12 Jun 2020

After spiking above $40 a barrel, crude has now slumped again. Voluntary and enforced supply cuts have put a floor under the market after April’s shock falls. But the risk of a second coronavirus wave, and the difficulties of coordinating production hikes, point to a ceiling.

Tycoon’s rig empire leaves lenders deep underwater

3 Jun 2020

Oslo-listed Seadrill, founded by billionaire John Fredriksen, wants to swap its $7.4 bln of debt for equity. A slump in crude prices means creditors will face heavy losses. But, with oil majors retrenching and rigs heading for the scrapyard, a bankruptcy could be even messier.

Exxon climate activists can call in reinforcements

28 May 2020

Environment-linked resolutions won less backing at the $193 bln energy firm’s annual meeting on Wednesday than at rivals’. Replacing directors is the next logical step. It’s a task traditional activists are more used to – and Exxon’s poor financial record could pull them in.

Corona Capital: Air travel, Starbucks

14 May 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Airlines’ experienced hands offer warning; Starbucks begins dance with landlords.

Aramco well placed for timid oil recovery

12 May 2020

The Saudi oil giant’s earnings slumped 25% in the first quarter, but its cash pile means it can keep dividends flowing. True, Aramco may not prevail in its Atlas-like attempt to prop up the world’s oil market alone. But there are tentative indications that it might not have to.

Climate activists get bigger bang from smaller ask

11 May 2020

U.S. fossil-fuel firms have been more resistant to shareholders’ demands on global warming than European rivals. But a majority of Phillips 66 owners just backed a climate vote that Exxon and Chevron will soon face. The activists’ success may be down to their more targeted scope.

Oil car crash highlights Aramco investors’ airbag

6 May 2020

The Saudi crude giant’s shares have fallen less than those of western peers. Shareholders’ scope to avoid the dividend cuts now hitting oil majors is one reason why. It helps that Riyadh may be able to borrow its way out of the crisis rather than have to drain its cash cow.

Mukesh Ambani gives Saudis a run for their money

4 May 2020

A $7 bln rights issue backstopped by the Reliance Industries boss will help keep his promise to cut debt. Although smaller than a delayed deal with Aramco, the discounted stock sale is a record for India. The symbolic significance should instil more confidence amid the pandemic.

U.S. oil giants play chicken with shareholders

1 May 2020

Shell cut its dividend on Thursday and took a realistic outlook towards the fossil fuel’s future. But U.S. drillers are forging ahead as if the commodity’s only challenge is price. Without a thoughtful 30-year plan, Exxon and Chevron can only hope to tread water, at best.