Fiscal Policy

Viewsroom: Why U.S. tax reform is doomed, too

20 Jul 2017

Republicans’ failure to replace Obamacare throws into doubt Washington’s ability to keep other high-profile election promises, not least cutting corporate levies. Meanwhile, President Trump’s fuzzy agenda for reforming NAFTA could give Canada and Mexico more bargaining power.

Third Senate GOP health attempt is most charmless

18 Jul 2017

Having twice failed to pass alternatives to Obamacare, Republicans may try to repeal it with no replacement. Based on a similar 2015 effort an estimated 32 mln Americans would lose insurance cover, some 10 mln more than under the nixed bills. It’s hard to see senators backing it.

Macron’s choice: Europe or Gallic exceptionalism

13 Jul 2017

The French President and Germany’s Angela Merkel are keen to revamp the euro zone. It’s hard for Macron to be a role model as long as France’s budget deficit is too big – and harder still given the pressure to cut taxes quickly. This fiscal dilemma is the euro zone’s problem.

Exchange Podcast: Bill Emmott

5 Jul 2017

The system of political and economic openness built after World War Two is under threat, Bill Emmott argues in his new book "The Fate of the West." He joins us to discuss globalization, populism and why there's still cause for optimism about the future of liberal democracies.

U.S. GOP tries version of “extend and pretend”

26 Jun 2017

The mantra used to defer the reckoning on dodgy loans has come to Congress. Some lawmakers want to extend the 10-year budget horizon to at least 20 years. That would allow bigger tax cuts and deficits in the near term, but would be as irresponsible as the worst of Wall Street.

U.S. debt ceiling’s only value is as a warning light

23 Jun 2017

The Treasury wants lawmakers to raise the $20 trln cap on federal borrowing or risk a default. The 100-year-old idea of the limit is no longer practical, especially when Congress won't link it with budgeted outlays. Still, the ceiling is a symbol of America's growing debt burden.

U.S. Senate’s “better” healthcare is still worse

22 Jun 2017

Upper-chamber Republicans unveiled their hitherto secret Obamacare alternative. Unlike the House bill it keeps income-based subsidies, but there are big cuts to Medicaid. Millions would probably lose insurance coverage. With costs ballooning, that's what Trump might call "mean."

Saudi Aramco IPO is exercise in reverse valuation

22 Jun 2017

The oil producer is worth $2 trillion, say its owners. The question might not be whether that valuation is right, but what Aramco’s owners and bankers will have to do to get it. A Breakingviews calculator suggests this will be a stretch of reason.

Theresa May’s plan still has hard Brexit core

21 Jun 2017

The quest for a parliamentary majority has forced Britain’s prime minister to curb her ambition. Planned reforms to pensions, schools and company pay have been shoved aside. Support for her Brexit-heavy agenda is uncertain, though. The government’s future remains in the balance.

Greece still dancing to Europe’s political discord

16 Jun 2017

Euro zone governments have rewarded Greek reforms and austerity with 8.5 bln euros of loans and promises of future relief. Political factors, including German elections, mean losses must remain vague. The lack of clear debt restructuring denies Greece the boost it needs.

Hadas: Free university for all is good policy

14 Jun 2017

The UK Labour party promised to abolish the current tuition-plus-loan system for tertiary schooling. That’s normal in most of Europe. It’s also fair and enriches society, whereas student debt does the opposite. Clever use of taxation might offer an answer.

Snapchat populism is new political battleground

9 Jun 2017

Millennial-friendly Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn hit the party’s highest vote share since 2001. It may be partly an anti-Brexit backlash from a pro-EU age group. Yet what looks like a swerve away from populism may just be the beginning of a new kind of grievance pandering.

Weak government may be just what Britain needs

9 Jun 2017

A hung parliament promises months, or years, of political instability. For finance and industry, though, this may mean freedom to carry on without major interventions. The worst manifesto ideas, on migration, Brexit and nationalisation, are likely to end up in the policy dustbin.

British election offers business only bad choices

7 Jun 2017

If the Labour party wins on June 8, companies face higher taxes and wage bills. If the ruling Conservatives retain power, expect more meddling and talent shortages. On balance, companies may prefer the incumbents – if only because they are less likely to carry out their promises.

Europe is a fertile petri dish for GDP-linked debt

6 Jun 2017

Linking national debt payments to economic performance could help countries cope with downturns. There are many obstacles. Bad governments might fiddle statistics; good ones may be reluctant to pay a premium for flexibility. Even so, the euro zone is a good place to test the idea.

Hadas: Ending the hyperbole over pension savings

31 May 2017

The World Economic Forum wants all workers to put more aside for retirement. That may be conventional wisdom, but it is economic nonsense. For a nation, current savings cannot reduce the burdens of future pensions: if anything such reliance risks worsening the social challenge.

Review: A premature requiem for the liberal order

26 May 2017

Globalisation is in retreat and democracy under attack. Two new books foresee a gloomy future for the Western-led economic and political system. Yet just as some were too quick to proclaim its triumph in 1989, the obituaries sparked by Donald Trump’s election may prove too hasty.

Post-election Merkel might change her spots

25 May 2017

Angela Merkel may have the option to pick the right-of-centre FDP as her new coalition partner in September, polls suggest. The FDP advocates low taxes, fiscal discipline and a euro zone without Greece. That could be an obstacle to euro reform, or a grand bargain with France.

Sovereign downgrade will keep Beijing on its toes

24 May 2017

Moody’s has downgraded China for the first time since 1989, now ranking it below Taiwan. It is mostly symbolic as foreign debt ownership is minimal and local corporate ratings follow their own logic. But the public reprimand will check Beijing's ambition to attract funds onshore.

India’s RBI risks a reputational downgrade

23 May 2017

The central bank may pick credit agencies to rate stressed loans, and help pay for the job. It is a bid to stop borrowers shopping for good scores. That could force agencies to adapt. But the idea may lead the regulator further into commercial decision-making.