Financial Services

UniCredit has ways to keep defying gravity

5 Feb 2024

The 50 bln euro bank pledged to match record 2023 net profit this year, and to keep showering investors with cash. CEO Andrea Orcel can use lower costs to offset higher loan losses and costlier deposits. If he can do so, and avoid flashy deals, his valuation can rise further.

JPMorgan succession is a high-stakes soap opera

1 Feb 2024

The US’s largest bank shuffled its business leaders, sparking speculation as to who might eventually take over from boss Jamie Dimon. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why it matters, even if Dimon’s eventual successor is unlikely to fill his shoes.

Deutsche Bank and BNP try on each other’s clothes

1 Feb 2024

The $27 bln lender is less highly valued than its $72 bln French peer and its recent past is more troubled. But Deutsche just upped its outlook, while BNP’s got worse. Neither are investor stars, but the German bank’s ambitions for its investment bank look easier to realise.

Julius Baer pops myth of private bank prudence

1 Feb 2024

CEO Philipp Rickenbacher is leaving the $12 bln Swiss wealth manager after bad lending led to a $700 mln writedown. It’s a reminder that serving rich clients is not risk-free. Money managers will have to provide more clarity on loan books or give up lucrative but dicey practices.

Maxed-out shoppers put fire under Fed’s status quo

31 Jan 2024

American consumers are powering the economy. But their spendthrift ways are a big concern for central bank Chair Jay Powell. Credit card balances have just recorded the biggest jump on record and now top $1 trln. Rates are steady for now. The next move will be much riskier.

Santander progress yet to show up where it counts

31 Jan 2024

The $65 bln lender has already hit its 2025 profitability targets, yet still trades below tangible book value. Investors may fear risks like European rate cuts, or they might not buy Santander’s strategy. Until they award a higher valuation, boss Ana Botín’s job is incomplete.

Capital Calls: HSBC, Delivery Hero

30 Jan 2024

Concise views on global finance: The global bank will pay a 57 mln pound penalty for misreporting depositor protection data; the Frankfurt-listed meal delivery company has sold a 4.5% stake in rival Deliveroo, at a loss.

For trading bosses, it’s a good time to retire

29 Jan 2024

Goldman Sachs veteran Jim Esposito quit after realizing he was “going through the motions.” No wonder: banks’ markets divisions, like the one he oversaw, face falling income and growing red tape. Sailing into the sunset, or at least out of banking, will only get more enticing.

Dismantling Evergrande exposes Hong Kong-China gap

29 Jan 2024

A court in the financial hub has ordered the world’s most indebted developer to liquidate after talks with offshore creditors collapsed. Yet how this will be enforced on the mainland, where most of Evergrande’s assets are, is unclear. The experience of HNA may offer some clues.

Commerzbank stake sale would risk M&A impasse

25 Jan 2024

Berlin may consider offloading its 15% stake in the German lender. Deutsche Bank and UniCredit are obvious potential buyers, but higher rates have made a full-blown bank merger less appealing. A market disposal would present prospective suitors with a dilemma.

Capital Calls: Microsoft’s Russian hacker

22 Jan 2024

Concise views on global finance: The $3 trln tech firm disclosed that a nation-state hack accessed leaders’ email, saying it showed the need for potentially “disruptive” measures. It’s a worrying acknowledgement of the still-vague costs of geopolitical tensions for tech giants.

Jack Bogle’s ghost haunts Vanguard’s crypto plans

19 Jan 2024

The asset manager’s rival BlackRock is plunging into digital currency with a bitcoin ETF that brought in over $1 bln in a week. That strategy, divergent from Vanguard, highlights the desperation to differentiate. Bogle’s former firm’s decision to shun crypto may leave it behind.

Overdraft fee reform has a big, small-bank flaw

19 Jan 2024

The US consumer watchdog’s assault against charges levied when accounts go into the red is a win for customers – but only those of the biggest banks. Small lenders are exempt, partly because of their political clout. Trouble is, they often bank the neediest bunch.

Goldman’s new durability message cuts two ways

16 Jan 2024

After failing in consumer finance, the investment bank wants to emphasize the predictability of its existing businesses. Boss David Solomon makes a good case that a chunk of revenue is more reliable than it once was. And yet arch-rival Morgan Stanley generates even more of it.

Capital Calls: Greek airport IPO

16 Jan 2024

Concise views on global finance: State-backed Athens International Airport may be able to fetch a 3 bln euro valuation in a planned February listing.

BlackRock deal buys Larry Fink optionality on exit

12 Jan 2024

The asset manager’s $13 bln purchase of infrastructure firm GIP is a smart bet on private markets. Fink’s relationships give the tie-up an edge and history with GIP’s founder smooths integration. It’s transformational enough that Fink could retire, if only he were less ambitious.

Mega-banks menaced by closing jaws in murky waters

12 Jan 2024

JPMorgan, BofA, Citi and Wells Fargo all unveiled financial results clouded by exceptional items and less predictable outlooks. Bad-debt costs are up and interest rates are probably coming down. Cutting expenses relative to revenue, or “positive jaws,” will be a 2024 fixation.

BoE can counter banks’ unfriendly rate fire

12 Jan 2024

UK lenders like HSBC think lower borrowing costs are coming and have slashed five-year mortgage payments below 4%. That makes it harder for the Bank of England to slay inflation and, in fact, may delay any cuts. Governor Andrew Bailey could ask the City to reward savers as well.

Bitcoin ETFs only entrench one frivolous use case

10 Jan 2024

The SEC finally greenlit BlackRock, Grayscale and other funds to track the crypto price, with trading due to start this week. It’ll be easier to make – and lose – money in the volatile digital asset, but it’s no closer to being a currency, store of value or network for new apps.

Wall Street brings gun to Basel knife-fight

10 Jan 2024

JPMorgan and peers have good reason to be livid over proposed US bank rules. Some planned changes would punish them unduly, clash with existing controls, and effectively hand business to foreign rivals. With logic on their side, the risk is that banks overplay their hand.