Federal Reserve

Central banks’ gold fever is anything but reckless

5 Feb 2019

Their 2018 purchases of the yellow metal were the second-highest on record and up nearly three-quarters from a year ago. But this isn’t a speculative punt on prices rising. Instead, it’s a logical precaution against rival currencies and U.S. self-harm eroding dollar dominance.

Healthy U.S. job growth tells markets to cheer up

1 Feb 2019

Employers added a robust 304,000 positions last month. The jobless rate rose to 4 pct but it’s due to the government shutdown. The Fed recently reassured gloomy investors worried about global growth. But the U.S. economy is a better guide for the central bank than stock prices.

Fed patiently tells market it will be patient

30 Jan 2019

Stocks rose on the U.S. central bank’s comments reiterating that interest-rate moves depend on economic conditions. Ditto for the pace of shrinking its balance sheet. That’s nothing new, yet overly sensitive investors needed the reminder. For now the Fed is holding their hands.

Trump’s Fed pressure is a paper tiger, so far

14 Jan 2019

The U.S. president often bashes the central bank’s rate increases on Twitter. It’s unhelpful but transparent – which makes it easier for the Fed to resist. The real danger is if Trump bullies Jerome Powell behind closed doors, or changes his tactics for the two open board seats.

Guidance is a two-way street with Fed and markets

10 Jan 2019

Jerome Powell says the U.S. central bank will be patient in weighing new rate moves. Previous hawkish comments unsettled investors, helping tank stocks last month. The two are learning to read each other, but a data-dependent message may get tricky if the economy starts to turn.

Market adopts role of adult in the room

26 Dec 2018

U.S. stocks have fallen sharply, but in an orderly way. Fund managers and exchanges have handled heavy volume smoothly. That’s despite the unsustainable policies of the Trump administration, and clumsy efforts to instill calm. As long as those persist, prices can fall further.

Fed hike leaves Powell exposed in multiple ways

19 Dec 2018

The U.S. central bank raised rates despite criticism from President Trump. Slowing growth and bearish markets will only complicate its task going forward. The chairman will give more public talks in 2019 just as it gets harder to offer guidance. It could be a bumpy ride.

The 2019 stock market reversal: how it happened

18 Dec 2018

Few people would have disagreed at the beginning of the year that the nine-year-long bull market was reaching its end phase. That didn’t diminish the shock when stocks began to plunge in earnest. Breakingviews lays out a fictional account of how the good times came to an end.

U.S. bond yields turn from green light to red

4 Dec 2018

Treasury yields plunged to a three-month low on Tuesday and flashed a potential recession signal. While easy rates have supported the economy and stock market during the recovery, the latest moves suggest troubling weakness. They also raise the risk of a Fed policy mistake.

Review: Paul Volcker’s exemplary life

30 Nov 2018

The former Fed chairman is famous for crushing inflation. His new memoir, “Keeping At It”, reveals the attributes that made him arguably America’s greatest central banker. His common sense, distrust of economic theory and personal integrity are valuable guides to his successors.

Fed’s stability checkup downplays wobbly features

28 Nov 2018

Chairman Jerome Powell says the financial system is in good health, echoing a report from the U.S. central bank. The jobless rate is low while inflation remains in check. But risks like trade fights and corporate debt only get brief mentions. Watchdogs may regret that posture.

New global bank cop faces political stress test

26 Nov 2018

Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles is a strong choice to lead the Financial Stability Board but the Basel-based body faces many challenges. A divided U.S. Congress is fighting about whether to be tough or soft on Wall Street. Brexit and other forces will also test cross-border unity.

U.S. stress tests risk falling on slippery slope

9 Nov 2018

Fed supervision chief Randal Quarles wants to tweak the annual exams. Some revisions are warranted, like giving banks test results before they decide how much capital to return to investors. But scrapping the watchdog’s ability to fail a firm gives Wall Street too much leeway.

U.S. regional banks finally feel watchdog warmth

31 Oct 2018

The Federal Reserve wants to modestly loosen liquidity rules for commercial banks like U.S. Bancorp and PNC. That will leave the United States’ biggest global lenders – the likes of JPMorgan and BofA – the only ones stuck with a largely undiluted post-crisis Dodd-Frank regime.

U.S. Treasury hasn’t yet been Trumped

17 Oct 2018

China again escaped being named a currency manipulator by the U.S. agency, despite pressure from the president. Although some trade-related penalties are already happening through other means, it’s a rational decision. Steady hands at Treasury and the Fed offer investors comfort.

Indebted consumers save Wall Street’s bacon

12 Oct 2018

JPMorgan and Citi beat earnings estimates, partly helped by consumers showing no strain from their record levels of personal debt. Tax cuts and rising wages mean this can continue for a while. Lumpy investment-banking revenue gives banks a reason to hope it does.

Markets are finally getting back to basics

11 Oct 2018

A slump in stocks slowed on Thursday, partly thanks to tame U.S. inflation data. American equity valuations are high, trade tensions and interest rates are rising, and earnings season is under way. Six months of steady tech-led gains may be giving way to the facts on the ground.

The Exchange: Jeff Lacker

9 Oct 2018

The presidency of the Richmond Fed, whose territory included two top U.S. banks, offered a unique window on the financial crisis. Wachovia needed rescuing and BofA’s deal to buy Merrill Lynch nearly collapsed. Lacker reflects on what went down and where finance is headed.

The Exchange: Neel Kashkari

4 Oct 2018

Even before Lehman Brothers went belly-up, the U.S. Treasury was hatching a contingency plan. Kashkari was one of the architects of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which plugged some $250 bln into banks. He joins Rob Cox from his current perch running the Minneapolis Fed.

Hawkish Fed competes with trade as investor risk

26 Sep 2018

The U.S. central bank raised rates for the third time this year and will probably do so again in December. Meanwhile, its balance sheet is shrinking as Uncle Sam issues more debt. U.S. duties on $200 bln in Chinese goods also just hit. The confluence could upset markets.