European Union

ECB squeeze leaves room for fiscal war response

24 Mar 2022

The central bank is fighting inflation and cutting bond purchases, leaving European governments to shoulder the cost of the Ukraine war. That may add up to 4% of GDP to public debt loads inflated by the pandemic. But even with rising yields, national budgets can afford it.

Energy market bailout is cheaper of two evils

18 Mar 2022

Europe’s gas producers and utilities want state support to offset the wild swings in commodity prices since Russia invaded Ukraine. Given this could aid big oil companies like Shell, that sounds wrong. But a market breakdown would be worse, and states can levy windfall taxes.

EU energy crisis is a 130 bln euro joint problem

17 Mar 2022

That's how much it could cost to wean the bloc off Russian gas, at a time when energy bills are already soaring. States could tax energy companies or draw unused pandemic loans to offer subsidies. Common grants look like a better option.

EU charts expensive path towards energy freedom

8 Mar 2022

The European Commission wants to lop over 70% off Russian gas use this year by ramping up LNG purchases, green energy and gas storage. It implies Europeans consuming less energy and paying more than feared for what they use. Pooled EU resources may be needed to cushion the blow.

EU greenwash laxity could see it build back worse

13 Jan 2022

Europe’s green taxonomy is meant to direct billions of euros towards clean energy so a post-virus continent can “build back better”. Yet political fudges mean gas and nuclear count as sustainable. Worse, the tool’s new draft contains loopholes that could make it dirtier still.

EU’s anti-greenwashing crusade takes a risky turn

5 Jan 2022

The bloc’s new draft of its green taxonomy includes gas and nuclear power. The risk is a tool intended to make sustainable financing less prone to greenwashing does the opposite. A lot hinges on whether investors properly differentiate between clean and “transition” activities.

Europe tightens energy noose round its own neck

17 Dec 2021

Germany will not certify Nord Stream 2 until the second half of next year. The Baltic pipeline is a hugely flawed solution to Europe’s energy security shortcomings. But the main losers from delaying its launch are likely to be its own consumers, rather than Russia or Gazprom.

Trailblazing UK rate rise may pay off in the end

16 Dec 2021

The Bank of England is the first major central bank to hike its policy rate. The ECB faces less acute price pressures and the Fed must consider the job market alongside inflation. It’s a gamble, but acting now means British rate-setters will have less hiking to do in the future.

ECB needs a louder megaphone to reach bond markets

28 Oct 2021

President Christine Lagarde said she won’t hike rates as soon as investors anticipate. But that didn’t change their expectations and euro zone debt yields rose. She will have to do a better job of convincing them if she is to avert an unwanted tightening in financing conditions.

Mario Draghi can play hardball with Andrea Orcel

21 Oct 2021

UniCredit’s boss wants the Italian premier to inject 7 bln euros into bailed-out bank MPS before he buys it. The state needs to sell its stake to meet EU rules, but taxpayers may balk at another large handout. Seeking an extension from Brussels may work to Rome’s advantage.

Jens Weidmann’s best replacement is another hawk

20 Oct 2021

The Bundesbank president has unexpectedly resigned. Weidmann criticised Mario Draghi’s bond-buying plan, and a more dovish rate-setter could help the ECB keep policy loose in tricky times. But having an articulate and critical representative also helped keep German voters happy.

EU cheer only partly masks green bond shortcomings

12 Oct 2021

The bloc’s debut 12 bln euro issue of debt earmarked for environmental aims was a big success and may encourage more launches. But such securities only incentivise sustainable behaviour if issuers can borrow at cheaper rates. That’s not always the case.

French cloud IPO is a bet on EU tech sovereignty

5 Oct 2021

OVHcloud is listing in Paris for up to 3.7 bln euros. Slow growth and the tight grip of founder Octave Klaba justify the IT group’s low valuation. But sales could surge if European businesses and governments push to keep data at home rather than with Amazon, Google or Microsoft.

Capital Calls: U.S. deal watchdog, Italian IPO

5 Oct 2021

Concise views on global finance: Blog posts from the FTC’s competition chief reveal plans to go way bigger when extracting concessions from merging companies; Italy's $5 billion security group Leonardo is taking a second run at listing its DRS unit in the United States.

ECB has the least worrying inflation problem

1 Oct 2021

Euro zone consumer prices rose 3.4% in September, strengthening the hand of those who want boss Christine Lagarde to wind up emergency monetary stimulus. But structural unemployment is higher, the economy less robust and fiscal policy less stimulative than in the United States.

Easing crisis leaves Lagarde with tough transition

30 Sep 2021

The European Central Bank boss will have to fall back on a pre-pandemic bond-buying scheme once its emergency purchase programme runs out. The former is less flexible and may force Christine Lagarde to choose between flouting rules or curtailing support to the fragile economy.

German election offers more continuity than chaos

8 Sep 2021

A three-way coalition may lead the EU’s largest economy after September’s poll. A grouping of left, right, or green lawmakers could take months to form and shirk reforms at home and in Europe. Climate change and the pandemic aftermath will still shape policy for the better.

Ferrari’s new boss faces early electric test

2 Aug 2021

The EU wants to ban new fossil fuel-powered cars from 2035. That’s likely to force incoming CEO Benedetto Vigna to accelerate the $42 bln sports-car maker’s plans to shift to battery power. How to do that without denting its luxury margins will require some deft driving.

ECB’s old problem will defy new strategy

22 Jul 2021

Boss Christine Lagarde revealed the practical consequences of tweaking her inflation target: interest rates may stay at record lows for even longer. But given ultra-easy policy has failed for years to make prices rise faster, the chances of hitting her new goal are no better.

EU dirty money watchdog sounds less toothless

21 Jul 2021

Brussels wants to set up a single agency to prevent future Danske Bank-style scandals. The new body will take time to set up and could be watered down by politicians. But direct oversight of the EU’s riskiest financial entities and scope to levy big fines are a step forward.