Euro Zone

‘Twin peaks’ can keep EU capital market push alive

21 Mar 2024

A two-pronged approach can aid Europe’s drive for a single financial market. By splitting oversight of the system’s safety from the policing of daily operations, Brussels can avoid a David Lynch-style mystery on who killed its plan to boost investments and savings across borders.

ECB’s money drain has silver lining for markets

14 Mar 2024

The European Central Bank is ready to exit its huge stimulus programme. With 4.7 trln euros of bonds on its books, that will take time but policymakers want few surprises. A new regime of setting rates and relying on banks to ask for loans will wean them off cheap money.

Why central banks risk making more mistakes

27 Feb 2024

Western rate-setters were late in fighting inflation. In this Exchange podcast, TS Lombard economists Dario Perkins and Davide Oneglia argue that, as price growth abates, the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank may be too slow in easing monetary policy.

Russia risk looms over Euroclear profit windfall

22 Feb 2024

The Brussels-based clearing house is a reluctant depository for sanctioned Russian assets. It made 5.7 bln euros before tax last year thanks to cash sitting on its balance sheet. But the bonanza also makes it a target. A blow to financial stability would far exceed one-off gains.

ECB is battling an imaginary wage spiral

24 Jan 2024

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is set to hold rates this week because she fears rising salaries will boost inflation. Yet euro zone workers are getting raises of just 3.8%, down from a year ago. Frankfurt may not want to cheer bigger pay, but it can ignore it.

Davos holds up funhouse mirror to shifting world

22 Jan 2024

Delegates from the Middle East and India made a splash at last week’s World Economic Forum, reflecting their wealth and investment appeal. Europeans and Chinese were subdued. Big Tech looks the winner from AI. This year’s Swiss conflab arguably exaggerated more than it distorted.

Poland’s path to euro will be long and arduous

16 Jan 2024

New Prime Minister Donald Tusk wants to bring his country closer to the EU. As the co-author of an old plan to strengthen the monetary union, he might be expected to apply to join the single currency. Politics and economics make this a long-term goal at best.

The spectre of Donald Trump hangs over Davos

12 Jan 2024

The former US president is not among the 2,800 business and political leaders converging on the Swiss resort. But his possible return to power will pervade debates about Ukraine, China, and climate change. In 2016, Davos laughed off the idea of a Trump presidency. Not this time.

EU’s energy security drive may have gone too far

11 Jan 2024

The bloc’s pivot away from Russian pipeline gas has worked. But Europe’s fast-rising capacity to import the fossil fuel in liquid form will surpass its total gas needs by 2030. LNG infrastructure’s public and private backers have a stark choice: scale back, or risk writedowns.

Global polycrisis could yet have not-so-bad ending

8 Jan 2024

From war in Gaza and Ukraine to superpower rivalry, climate change and slow growth, there is a lot of danger in the world. The possible return of Donald Trump as US President is another risk. But there are more optimistic scenarios - and some silver linings in pessimistic ones.

Bond deluge will nudge ECB to softer rate stance

4 Jan 2024

European countries’ fiscal needs and the end of central bank buying mean a record 675 bln euros of sovereign debt will be on sale in 2024. That may keep borrowing costs high for states like Italy. ECB President Christine Lagarde can help by meeting investor hopes for swift cuts.

ECB’s rosy outlook is a recipe for economic pain

26 Oct 2023

Frankfurt policymakers think the euro zone will grow by 0.7% in 2023 and want to keep rates high to fight inflation. Yet most data point to stagnation or recession. A gloomier perspective would enable the European Central Bank to ease policy and help the bloc’s economy.

Belated euro U-turn could be a winner for Sweden

6 Oct 2023

Top advocates of snubbing the single currency 20 years ago are now pushing for its adoption. The crown’s fall makes curbing inflation harder, and rate-setters are under the ECB’s spell. With low public deficit and debt levels, Stockholm may find joining late is better than never.

Capital Calls: Sequoia, Heineken, Moneyball

31 Jul 2023

Concise views on global finance: The venture capital firm issues a refund to cryptocurrency investors; the $57 bln brewer slashes its operating profit outlook; Steve Cohen’s New York Mets baseball team and its whopping $364 mln payroll is a mess, but in sports beta is the alpha.

Lagarde hides velvet policy in iron talk

27 Jul 2023

After lifting borrowing costs to a record high, the ECB president sounded tough on inflation to persuade markets interest rates will stay elevated. But she also hinted the central bank could pause. Investors can prepare for a less aggressive monetary stance.

ECB’s crisis tool works best if it’s never used

30 May 2023

The European Central Bank is touting its powers to buy sovereign bonds if they come under attack from the market. That has kept traders in check, so far. The trick for Frankfurt officials is to convincingly threaten to deploy emergency measures without ever having to.

Debt conundrum gives Italy weak hand in EU talks

18 May 2023

The pandemic and the war have taken the country’s indebtedness off investors’ radar. Yet high interest rates, slower growth and a budget deficit mean Rome will struggle to cut its fiscal burden. That makes it harder for PM Giorgia Meloni to ask for lenient European rules.

EU debt’s credibility problem is worsening

9 May 2023

Borrowing costs of the bloc’s jointly issued bonds have risen above those of similarly rated sovereigns. The EU’s inability to deliver on promised joint revenues is exacerbating the impact of higher rates. That in turn reinforces investor fears that Brussels debt isn’t permanent.

Lagarde fine-tuning will aid sputtering euro zone

4 May 2023

The European Central Bank’s move to raise rates by just 25 basis points and speed up its exit from bond-buying signals a less aggressive approach. High inflation calls for more hikes, but Frankfurt’s decision to use a scalpel rather than a hammer will benefit Europe’s economy.

Dollar bulls are praying for a mild downturn

26 Apr 2023

The greenback has lost 14% versus the euro since September, as investors bet on Europe’s recovery and China’s reopening. Inflation and interest rate trends still favour the single currency. The best hope for the buck is a minor economic slowdown to boost its safe haven status.