Energy

Shell makes risky pitch for the middle ground

14 Jun 2023

The $195 bln group’s new CEO Wael Sawan boosted shareholder payouts and refrained from new oil output cuts. His bet is that Shell can echo US peers by lingering in oil, while placing its green bets on less tricky low-carbon areas than European rivals. It’s not certain to work.

Saudi oil cuts collide with investor scepticism

8 Jun 2023

The Gulf state is slashing oil production in July and convinced OPEC+ to extend cuts to the end of 2024. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain how these restrictions may still not be enough to convince investors to stop worrying about recession.

Saudi’s oil lollipop reflects its sticky situation

5 Jun 2023

The kingdom has secured OPEC+ consent to extend output cuts into 2024, and will also lop another 1 mln barrels off its own daily production. But if traders bought OPEC’s demand forecasts, oil prices should be higher anyway. Saudi may also struggle to slash output any further.

Biden’s America goes from oil guzzler to gusher

1 Jun 2023

The commodity’s main benchmark is including prices of oil from Texas, a reflection of a shift. Even as American demand stagnates, U.S.-based producers pump and export more. The president wants the country to be green. He can’t control the private industry that supports the world.

IPO pops are iffy adverts for Gulf capital markets

1 Jun 2023

ADNOC L&S, like other floats by the UAE energy giant, surged on its first day of trading. Yet the 50% rise looks contrived. Abu Dhabi’s listings boom is narrow, and mostly involves state-linked firms. Its dreams of being a go-to destination for global capital are remote.

EU will go easy on Indian resale of Russian fuel

23 May 2023

Fuelled by imports from Moscow, oil products sales to Europe from refiners including Reliance and Nayara have nearly doubled to $15 bln. The trend shows anti-Russian sanctions are not watertight. Yet, risks of an energy inflation revival make a European Union ban a tough call.

Russia sanctions become a high return investment

19 May 2023

As older penalties lose their bite, Western powers are preparing a new round of measures to tighten the screws on Vladimir Putin. That will hurt the Kremlin and be a marginal sacrifice for Europe, which no longer depends on Moscow for its energy – a good cost-benefit balance.

Oil’s feuding forecasters may both be wrong

15 May 2023

The International Energy Agency, which represents developed-world crude buyers, recently slammed producer club OPEC’s output cuts. Yet the pair share the same demand estimates for 2023. If they’re wrong, IEA fears and OPEC hopes of surging oil prices may prove wide of the mark.

Capital Calls: Amazon, Aramco

9 May 2023

Concise views on global finance: Rising costs and cautious consumers are driving the e-commerce giant to sell goods through mobile games and push incentives; the $2 trillion Saudi oil company’s new dividend policy is one way to interest investors in future share sales. 

Europe’s oil major sweet spot could yet turn sour

4 May 2023

Shell, BP and Total are still making fat profits, and investors seem fine with a slower route out of oil. Rising rates also make wind projects look even less enticing than fossil fuel ones. But longer term, Europe’s oil titans may lose their head start in the shift to net zero.

Capital Calls: BP, Japanese M&A

2 May 2023

Concise views on global finance: The oil giant will buy back $1.8 bln of shares over the next three months, which is less than investors hoped for; Astellas Pharma is making the most of cheap debt for its $5.9 bln pounce on U.S. eye-treatment specialist Iveric Bio.

Oil AGMs presage awkward investor decoupling

28 Apr 2023

BP sailed through its annual shareholder meeting without much blowback on how it had backtracked on climate goals. That will embolden competitors to dismiss pro-green investors’ concerns, and give more to the opposite camp. It is becoming harder to please both sides.

Dialing it down would help overamped utility

27 Apr 2023

After a busted $2.6 bln takeover deal, expansion into Chile and a huge share slump, Algonquin Power is now contending with two pushy investors. Steady returns are the main appeal of such businesses. Spinning off the renewable energy arm would help restore some boring value.

Italy’s corporate power grab nears expiry date

18 Apr 2023

Premier Giorgia Meloni promised to rely on merit to pick new directors at state-backed firms like $54 bln Eni and $7 bln Leonardo. Instead, she’s stuffing boards with loyalists. Hedge fund efforts to push back at $64 bln green star Enel are a reminder the market also has a say.

Capital Calls: Buyouts are getting complicated

13 Apr 2023

Concise views on global finance: Both hand sanitizer maker Diversey and software developer Qualtrics recently sold to private equity firms, but new regulatory filings show dealmakers weighing increasing risks.

OPEC’s oil cut is less surprising than it looks

3 Apr 2023

The producer group’s shock call to slash output by another 1 mln daily barrels will annoy Joe Biden and spur inflation fears. But de facto leader Saudi Arabia had already shown it would ignore US wishes. And Chinese demand is sufficiently uncertain to justify pre-emptive action.

Americans indulge green at home, black abroad

31 Mar 2023

U.S. renewable power generation surpassed coal for the first time in 2022. But companies like Peabody Energy and Consol Energy are benefitting from exporting their dirty power source. Cleaning up the country's act, while exporting more filthy fuel, wastes part of this effort.

Economic asphyxiation puts Russia in China’s orbit

20 Mar 2023

Moscow needs up to $90 bln to fund its budget deficit this year. As sanctions keep biting, financing the shortfall will slowly add to the economy’s woes. Russia’s need to use the yuan for trade and payments will also increase Vladimir Putin’s dependence on Beijing.

Capital Calls: FedEx delivers, for now

17 Mar 2023

Concise views on global finance: Shares in the delivery company shot up over 10% on Friday, as cost-cutting measures pay off. Those benefits could easily dwindle.

EU and US green arms race misses bigger picture

16 Mar 2023

The European Union’s response to Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act gives member states leeway to push back with their own green subsidies. Yet plans for production targets are misguided. To decarbonise while managing China risks, it’s better to seek common ground with the US.