Energy

UK green fund has risky but valid investor carrots

10 Jul 2024

The new government’s ‘National Wealth Fund’ is really $9 bln of public cash with capped returns. The risk is private investors slated to provide treble that figure get too good a deal. But with the UK’s energy transition requiring $64 bln a year, a degree of largesse makes sense.

Copper’s green step change is an uphill struggle

9 Jul 2024

Supplies of the red metal have to motor if the world is to adequately decarbonise. In this Exchange podcast Tae-Yoon Kim, senior energy analyst at the International Energy Agency, lays out the challenges that need to be overcome if the private sector is going to make that happen.

Data centre boom reveals AI hype’s physical limits

4 Jul 2024

The investor frenzy over artificial intelligence assumes there will be enough infrastructure to support apps like ChatGPT. But a $1 trln rush to build data centres faces planning restrictions and energy constraints. That will limit processing power and push up costs for users.

Middle East reignites Santos’ M&A pipe dreams

4 Jul 2024

Shares of the $17 bln Aussie driller jumped on a Bloomberg report that Aramco and ADNOC are each studying bids. That may yet lure in BP, Chevron and others. But the return on investment remains as ho-hum as when Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher opened the door to a deal last year.

Net zero arbitrage is large, but no one-way bet

14 Jun 2024

There’s a big gap between the rich world’s ambitions to reduce carbon emissions and the ability of governments to achieve that goal. Investors can try to exploit that disconnect. However, economic, technological and geopolitical constraints can quickly change in unexpected ways.

Biden’s hydrogen goals are like oil and water

4 Jun 2024

The White House wants to foster production of the abundant element as an alternative to fossil fuels, but oil and gas companies want a chance to pitch in. Environmentalists see that as a trap. Even so, there may be no choice but to extend oil majors like Exxon an olive branch.

Aramco’s $12 bln share sale is borne of necessity

31 May 2024

Saudi Arabia is selling an extra 0.6% slice of the $1.9 trln oil giant. Riyadh needs cash because budget concerns have delayed projects to diversify its economy. The company’s low valuation versus global rivals makes the timing suboptimal. At least buyers get an attractive yield.

Conoco’s Marathon deal is cheap and cheerful

29 May 2024

As rivals like Chevron buy premium assets at high prices, the $139 bln Conoco is bagging OK assets at a reasonable $23 bln. The return on investment of 10% is attractive, though. And it leaves the oil sector positioned for future consolidation – maybe with Conoco as a target.

Chevron has chance to save doubtful Hess deal

17 May 2024

If Hess shareholders are sensible they will vote down Chevron’s uncompelling $51 bln offer. The premium is small and closure is uncertain. Besides, Hess’s offshore crown jewel in Guyana may be gaining in value. Chevron has a brief opportunity to up its game.

Wood Group is parable for takeover-wary UK boards

16 May 2024

Shares in the energy-services group have languished since Apollo ditched a $2 bln proposed bid last year. The board is struggling to get a new suitor to match the old price. With UK firms facing record takeover interest, it’s a reminder that cash premiums are often hard to beat.

Total’s US re-listing idea could backfire

8 May 2024

The $170 bln oil major is considering decamping to the United States to court oil-friendly investors. Yet getting included in the big stock index would mean cutting French roots, and a valuation boost looks unlikely. Staying at home may also be better for its growing power unit.

Microsoft’s AI land grab becomes costly power game

1 May 2024

The tech giant is splurging on artificial intelligence models and chips. Now it’s made a big commitment to buy renewable energy for data centres, enabling Canadian investor Brookfield to build a massive 10 gigawatts of capacity. It’s another long-term bet on nascent technology.

Through Aramco, Peak China courts Peak Oil

26 Apr 2024

Buying a 10% stake in petrochemical firm Hengli will ramp up the Saudi giant’s presence in the People's Republic. Aramco is boosting ties with an important long-term customer. Beijing gets to tout foreign inflows as other sources dry up. It's a critical match.

BHP CEO tests his M&A promise in Anglo American

25 Apr 2024

Mike Henry has long sworn off overpaying for deals. A 30% premium for its $37 bln smaller rival looks justifiable. The buyer would then become the world’s largest copper miner and gain better iron ore for green steel. The real trial will come if peers like Rio join the fray.

Reliance’s efficiency may be New Delhi’s problem

23 Apr 2024

Completing the rollout of its 5G service helped Mukesh Ambani’s $240 bln oil-to-data conglomerate reduce capex by 7%. That’s good for shareholders. But Modi needs companies to boost spending to meet his administration’s deficit reduction goal without compromising on GDP growth.

Shell’s value gap is more strategy than geography

19 Apr 2024

CEO Wael Sawan may shift the $230 bln UK oil giant’s listing to New York if a discount to rivals like Exxon Mobil persists beyond 2025. But Shell’s shifting priorities, slower growth, and unreliable dividends weigh on its valuation. Those factors defy a superficial fix.

Spain’s utility saga calls for tough balancing act

18 Apr 2024

The UAE wants to buy 40% of 22 bln euro Naturgy from its private equity owners. That would usually require a full takeover, but Madrid has form on protecting key infrastructure. Spain will have to balance its desire to retain control with the need not to scare its bidder away.

Oil traders make risky bet on calm in Middle East

15 Apr 2024

Crude prices fell after Iran attacked Israel, probably because the Islamic Republic telegraphed its strikes in advance. Still, the unprecedented move may elicit an Israeli response. With oil supplies tightening, regional tensions and prices could yet reset at a higher level.

Prysmian finds sparky US fix for dim cable outlook

15 Apr 2024

The world’s biggest maker of telco and power lines is buying a cash-rich US rival. At $4 bln, the deal is not cheap, and heavy investment in grids has slowed. Still, adding heft to the more attractive North America market should improve the $15 bln Italian company’s prospects.

BP takeover is both appealing and daunting

12 Apr 2024

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company recently considered buying its $110 bln British peer. It’s unlikely to be the only suitor. BP trades at a discount to other oil giants and recently installed a new CEO. But UK security concerns and EU antitrust rules present formidable hurdles.