Emerging Markets

US market juggernaut poses top risk for 2025

6 Dec 2024

After a second year of world-beating returns, stocks listed in the United States account for 67% of global equity markets. Outperformance sucks in more capital and companies. Though it’s a long-term trend, US valuations seem high. A reversal would leave few investors unscathed.

Chinese markets hope and prepare for the best

12 Nov 2024

Stocks shrugged off both Trump’s win and an underwhelming stimulus package for growth in the People's Republic. The buoyancy reflects a risky bet the US won't apply a full 60% trade tariff and optimism that China is better equipped than most countries to deal with higher duties.

Hyundai’s IPO is a big test for gilded markets

16 Oct 2024

The Korean carmaker's $3 bln share sale in India is off to a decent start. It will put a big floor under its parent's valuation. If the country's biggest listing goes smoothly, it also will offer a verdict on whether or not India's market is pushing unsustainable limits.

India’s Swiggy tries enticing IPO bargain hunters

30 Sep 2024

The money-losing food delivery group is eyeing a valuation of up to $15 bln, or 10 times forecast sales, in its debut. That’s a sensible discount to profitable and faster-growing rival Zomato. The bet is that customer loyalty and improving earnings will help Swiggy catch up.

For global firms, India IPOs are a honey trap

17 Sep 2024

Hyundai and LG Electronics are each keen to float their local subsidiary on Mumbai bourses. Rich valuations are on offer. Companies have been burnt, though, by chasing additional listings around the world. The risk of getting hurt looks particularly bad in India.

China brokerage deal has more bark than bite

9 Sep 2024

The merger of Guotai Junan and embattled rival Haitong will create the country’s largest brokerage with assets of $225 bln. The overcrowded sector needs consolidation, but this deal probably won’t aid Beijing’s goal to foster a squad of world-beating investment banks.

India’s food inflation debate will get spicier

2 Sep 2024

Governor Shaktikanta Das shot down an idea from New Delhi to strip food costs from the central bank's price target. Ignoring the item would allow the RBI to trim rates and combat slowing GDP growth. It would also hurt the poor. As inequality rises, so will pressure to bend.

Short seller sharpens a divide in India’s market

16 Aug 2024

Hindenburg Research says Madhabi Puri Buch’s past stake in an Adani-linked fund makes the chair of the securities regulator unfit to probe the tycoon’s empire; her response kept stocks calm. Locally, she is seen as tough. Outsiders watching the saga will be more sceptical.

Big Beer’s stumbles leave investors ice cold

14 Aug 2024

Heineken shares are down after it disappointed investors hoping for a sport-fuelled profit party. Rival Carlsberg’s valuation has fallen due to a $4 bln soft drinks takeover. For CEOs, emerging markets growth and deals in the right areas are the only way to add fizz to stocks.

India convincingly overcomes its IPO demons

14 Aug 2024

Cautious pricing is paying off. E-bike maker Ola surged on its debut and e-commerce platform Brainbees jumped 46%. The success by the unprofitable SoftBank-backed firms clears the way for big deals that will help the country retain Asia's IPO crown as other venues falter.

Taiwan is punching well above its market weight

12 Aug 2024

Share sales and convertible deals are surging on the island where TSMC’s $748 bln market value exceeds GDP thanks to an AI-led rally. The market could surpass China’s weighting in global indices as profits trump geopolitics. For bankers, it's a counterintuitive bright spot.

Japan’s auto rally betrays global EV anxiety

29 Jul 2024

Shares of Mitsubishi, Nissan and Honda rose on a mooted three-way alliance despite a dearth of details. The trio’s success will depend on how well they can use that scale to cut costs as the race to develop smarter, cleaner cars jeopardises the industry's profitability.

Hyundai’s extra gear is short on staying power

26 Jul 2024

Earnings at Korea’s largest carmaker jumped 23% last quarter, bucking a trend that had rivals from Tesla to GM to Nissan stalling. Yet investors have wiped almost 6% off the share price. Robust hybrid and SUV sales may not offer lasting protection as consumer confidence falters.

China stocks’ ‘policy put’ is breaking down

24 Jul 2024

Chinese markets' bull run has come undone as hopes for significant stimulus crumble. Without follow-through on vows to shore up the economy, trading cycles could grow shorter and more volatile as speculators race to profit off fleeting rallies spurred by signals from Beijing.

Two old loves come back to haunt Singapore’s GIC

24 Jul 2024

Taking a long view is a hallmark of the $770 bln sovereign fund. Still, a big exposure to emerging-market equities, including China, and to bonds and cash, is spoiling returns. The city-state has a lot riding on whether that improves in the short term.

Tech poster child poses a problem for Korea Inc

23 Jul 2024

Billionaire Brian Kim’s arrest for his role in a K-Pop deal adds to his Kakao empire's mounting legal woes. Its dominance in messaging also is a regulatory headache. Yet a tough crackdown on the company could jeopardise the country’s new breed of promising global businesses.

The world can survive a strong dollar – for now

13 May 2024

The greenback has gained 17% against major currencies in three years. Other countries avoided repeating past crises through better fiscal policies and less foreign borrowing. But in the long run a mighty buck will put economies under stress, especially in emerging markets.

Investors can discount IMF’s emerging-market gloom

21 Apr 2023

The multilateral lender has sounded a now-traditional warning about the financial distress facing emerging economies. Yet these markets have navigated rising US interest rates surprisingly well. Deep reforms mean there may be more good news to come, argues Felix Martin.

Guest view: “1% for 1.5C” can power green finance

11 Apr 2023

Poorer nations pay the highest human and financial cost of climate change. Multilateral development banks should offer to lend to them at 1% to help mitigate and adapt to global warming, argues UN Climate Change High-Level Champion for COP27 Mahmoud Mohieldin.

First Abu Dhabi and StanChart may have second act

10 Jan 2023

The UAE bank was considering a bid for the $23 bln UK-listed emerging market lender but is no longer doing so. Nevertheless, StanChart shares are hovering above their pre-bid level. While a deal would create capital and regulatory headaches, that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.