Election

Political spotlight on Carlyle after U.S. election

3 Nov 2021

The buyout firm that once employed George H.W. Bush worked for years to shed its reputation as a shrewd Beltway operator. Former co-CEO Glenn Youngkin’s win makes him Virginia’s next governor. That gives him presidential potential, and puts Carlyle back on the Washington map.

Capital Calls: U.S. deal watchdog, Italian IPO

5 Oct 2021

Concise views on global finance: Blog posts from the FTC’s competition chief reveal plans to go way bigger when extracting concessions from merging companies; Italy's $5 billion security group Leonardo is taking a second run at listing its DRS unit in the United States.

Close German vote dilutes economic reform hopes

26 Sep 2021

Socialist Olaf Scholz and his centre-right rival, Armin Laschet, will each woo the fiscally conservative Free Democrats in a bid to form a government. The tight election result hands the FDP leverage that may limit scope for big green investments and more supple EU budget rules.

Norway readies fresh round of green air guitar

14 Sep 2021

The Scandinavian state is on track for a left-wing coalition pledging to do more on climate change after eight years of conservative rule. But rapid cuts to national hydrocarbons output aren’t likely. Given Norway has a $1.4 trln wealth fund, it can afford to go beyond gesturing.

German election offers more continuity than chaos

8 Sep 2021

A three-way coalition may lead the EU’s largest economy after September’s poll. A grouping of left, right, or green lawmakers could take months to form and shirk reforms at home and in Europe. Climate change and the pandemic aftermath will still shape policy for the better.

Zambian sunlight could disperse Chinese debt fog

18 Aug 2021

The African state’s new leader, Hakainde Hichilema, has to forge a deal with creditors after last year’s default. Getting China to the table won’t be easy. Lifting Beijing’s veil of secrecy by revealing Lusaka’s loans would remove the biggest barrier, and set a good precedent.

Iran vote makes reopening an even harder sell

21 Jun 2021

Ebrahim Raisi’s election as president means hardliners will from August control the Islamic Republic. A new deal to unwind some sanctions on the country may be signed before then. But companies that were burnt by the U.S. withdrawal from an earlier accord are unlikely to return.

UK takes slow road to Scotland breakaway risk

10 May 2021

Pro-secession parties increased their majority in Scottish elections, while Boris Johnson’s Conservatives cemented their position in England. Yet even if a new referendum takes place, the outcome is far from certain. The breakup threat will take time to show up in asset prices.

Germany’s EU views will get Green jolt post-Merkel

20 Apr 2021

Armin Laschet, the ruling Christian Democrats’ pick to run for chancellor, will almost certainly have to share power with the increasingly popular pro-European Greens. Such a coalition would bode well for a sensible reform of the bloc’s fiscal rules and common debt issuance.

Hong Kong’s rich confront Chinese socialism

11 Mar 2021

The central government is changing the city’s electoral system and side-lining the local business elite. That might clear the way for a new pro-Beijing party to attack economic inequality at tycoons’ expense. Yet the Communist Party has failed to do so at home, or anywhere else.

Georgia vote may give companies half-full glass

6 Jan 2021

Democrats could eke out a Senate majority in a runoff race that’s too close to call. The slim margin would hand more power to moderates on issues like green energy and taxes, in turn helping offset greater scrutiny of firms. Either way, Corporate America can avoid the worst.

Corona Capital: Cyber Friday and Monday

30 Nov 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Online holiday shopping hits new records.

Stricken polls can work to investors’ advantage

13 Nov 2020

Opinion surveys once again underestimated Republican support in the U.S. presidential election. Yet backup options, like economy-based models and prediction markets, have their own problems. Investors’ safest bet is to watch the polls – then apply their own analytical scepticism.

The Donald Trump show will continue broadcasting

9 Nov 2020

The president may have lost the White House. But an army of Twitter followers and right-wing media will ensure him a platform. That will serve his many interests, from boosting his businesses and staving off looming debt payments to acting as a thorn in the side of his successor.

WTO is early test of Joe Biden’s multilateralism

9 Nov 2020

The president-elect approaches diplomacy very differently to Donald Trump. The world trade body’s snarled-up leadership race is a chance to show that. But American criticisms of global commerce rules and China were bipartisan. Biden will seek reform but do it more collegially.

Powell is Fed boss any U.S. president would keep

4 Nov 2020

The central bank chair will keep monetary policy easy and could get a second term from either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. He’ll have to live with heavy spending and borrowing either way. If the Democrat wins, there is one area that will be a better fit: a focus on racial equity.

Close-shave U.S. election may leave many losers

4 Nov 2020

With no clear winner and the count likely to drag on, a divided government is getting more likely. Markets may be jittery temporarily. Those who stood to lose from a “blue wave,” like Wall Street and Silicon Valley, will be relieved. It bodes less well for struggling Americans.

Big democratic dividend paid out in 2020 election

4 Nov 2020

Setting aside the final decision, America at least deserves an A for participation. Voters turned out in record numbers, with perhaps two-thirds of those eligible casting ballots – the most in more than a generation. The world’s first modern democracy is far from moribund.

Next U.S. president inherits a dollar in decline

4 Nov 2020

Donald Trump failed to bend the currency to his will – it firmed when he wanted it to soften, and vice versa. While Trump may buoy the dollar more than Joe Biden in the short term, the greenback’s status as the premier reserve currency will be tested whoever wins the White House.

Trump vs. Biden is sideshow for Xi

30 Oct 2020

U.S. elections are closely followed in China, but the outcome of this year’s presidential ballot may matter less this time. Trump's tough act on Beijing has wrought little real damage. And while neither candidate is likely to thaw relations, the pandemic has left America weaker.