Election

Iran vote makes reopening an even harder sell

21 Jun 2021

Ebrahim Raisi’s election as president means hardliners will from August control the Islamic Republic. A new deal to unwind some sanctions on the country may be signed before then. But companies that were burnt by the U.S. withdrawal from an earlier accord are unlikely to return.

UK takes slow road to Scotland breakaway risk

10 May 2021

Pro-secession parties increased their majority in Scottish elections, while Boris Johnson’s Conservatives cemented their position in England. Yet even if a new referendum takes place, the outcome is far from certain. The breakup threat will take time to show up in asset prices.

Germany’s EU views will get Green jolt post-Merkel

20 Apr 2021

Armin Laschet, the ruling Christian Democrats’ pick to run for chancellor, will almost certainly have to share power with the increasingly popular pro-European Greens. Such a coalition would bode well for a sensible reform of the bloc’s fiscal rules and common debt issuance.

Hong Kong’s rich confront Chinese socialism

11 Mar 2021

The central government is changing the city’s electoral system and side-lining the local business elite. That might clear the way for a new pro-Beijing party to attack economic inequality at tycoons’ expense. Yet the Communist Party has failed to do so at home, or anywhere else.

Georgia vote may give companies half-full glass

6 Jan 2021

Democrats could eke out a Senate majority in a runoff race that’s too close to call. The slim margin would hand more power to moderates on issues like green energy and taxes, in turn helping offset greater scrutiny of firms. Either way, Corporate America can avoid the worst.

Corona Capital: Cyber Friday and Monday

30 Nov 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Online holiday shopping hits new records.

Stricken polls can work to investors’ advantage

13 Nov 2020

Opinion surveys once again underestimated Republican support in the U.S. presidential election. Yet backup options, like economy-based models and prediction markets, have their own problems. Investors’ safest bet is to watch the polls – then apply their own analytical scepticism.

The Donald Trump show will continue broadcasting

9 Nov 2020

The president may have lost the White House. But an army of Twitter followers and right-wing media will ensure him a platform. That will serve his many interests, from boosting his businesses and staving off looming debt payments to acting as a thorn in the side of his successor.

WTO is early test of Joe Biden’s multilateralism

9 Nov 2020

The president-elect approaches diplomacy very differently to Donald Trump. The world trade body’s snarled-up leadership race is a chance to show that. But American criticisms of global commerce rules and China were bipartisan. Biden will seek reform but do it more collegially.

Powell is Fed boss any U.S. president would keep

4 Nov 2020

The central bank chair will keep monetary policy easy and could get a second term from either Donald Trump or Joe Biden. He’ll have to live with heavy spending and borrowing either way. If the Democrat wins, there is one area that will be a better fit: a focus on racial equity.

Close-shave U.S. election may leave many losers

4 Nov 2020

With no clear winner and the count likely to drag on, a divided government is getting more likely. Markets may be jittery temporarily. Those who stood to lose from a “blue wave,” like Wall Street and Silicon Valley, will be relieved. It bodes less well for struggling Americans.

Big democratic dividend paid out in 2020 election

4 Nov 2020

Setting aside the final decision, America at least deserves an A for participation. Voters turned out in record numbers, with perhaps two-thirds of those eligible casting ballots – the most in more than a generation. The world’s first modern democracy is far from moribund.

Next U.S. president inherits a dollar in decline

4 Nov 2020

Donald Trump failed to bend the currency to his will – it firmed when he wanted it to soften, and vice versa. While Trump may buoy the dollar more than Joe Biden in the short term, the greenback’s status as the premier reserve currency will be tested whoever wins the White House.

Trump vs. Biden is sideshow for Xi

30 Oct 2020

U.S. elections are closely followed in China, but the outcome of this year’s presidential ballot may matter less this time. Trump's tough act on Beijing has wrought little real damage. And while neither candidate is likely to thaw relations, the pandemic has left America weaker.

Biden win would clear multiple green roadblocks

29 Oct 2020

The Democratic nominee will rejoin the Paris agreement on emissions cuts if he wins the U.S. election. That’s good, but largely symbolic. More important are a pledge to hike clean energy spending and the scope for his administration to advance green financing and carbon pricing.

Viewsroom: What we’re expecting on election night

29 Oct 2020

If Joe Biden wins Donald Trump’s place as POTUS on Nov. 3, and the Senate turns Democrat, lots of things will change – chief among them tax and economic policy. But big tech companies and China’s Communist Party will gain no reprieve. Rob Cox, Gina Chon and John Foley discuss.

U.S. election could be Twitter’s darkest day

26 Oct 2020

The $40 bln firm, Facebook and other online platforms can’t win in the Nov. 3 ballot. Banning political ads and premature claims of victory will be controversial and messy. Breakingviews imagines Jack Dorsey proposing one radical option to Mark Zuckerberg: a temporary shutdown.

Joe Biden is private equity’s tax boogeyman

26 Oct 2020

The White House wannabe aims to eradicate the perk that mints money for buyout barons. His broader plans would add to the pain for firms like Blackstone and KKR which restructured to exploit Donald Trump's tax cuts. Shareholders, clients and staff could end up at loggerheads.

Election debate victor is big D – America’s debt

23 Oct 2020

The final televised face-off between Donald Trump and Joe Biden offered the first real side-by-side comparison of their policies. The president promised little change while his rival pledged plenty of fiscal spending. Markets will be reassured that austerity is not on the ballot.

A Trump defeat would create an even more rabid Fox

21 Oct 2020

Rupert Murdoch’s $16 bln cable group has enjoyed an unrivaled relationship with the president. Joe Biden’s victory would rob him of his biggest celebrity. Democrats could also target the channel. And Trump might go into competition. Doubling down on division may be the cure.