Election

Japan’s Kishida inherits growing China headache

11 Jul 2022

The Prime Minister’s party increased its majority in Sunday’s election after former leader Shinzo Abe was shot. It’s now easier for Fumio Kishida to crank up defence spending and attack waning competitiveness. The former will anger China’s leaders; the latter will amuse them.

Italy starts countdown to risky life after Draghi

5 Jul 2022

The 5-Star party may bring down Mario Draghi’s coalition government. A crisis would hurt growth and raise the chances of a less EU-friendly executive. Worse, market jitters due to rising political uncertainty may complicate the European Central Bank’s efforts to tame bond yields.

Money can’t buy Ken Griffin political happiness

29 Jun 2022

Citadel’s founder backed an Illinois candidate for governor with a $50 mln donation but lost. The winner, a farmer, also has deep-pocketed backers. He will go up against Hyatt heir J.B. Pritzker. As billionaires on both sides up political stakes, they will cancel each other out.

Macron has narrow path to avoid domestic stalemate

20 Jun 2022

His party’s poor showing in parliamentary elections diminishes the French president’s authority and casts doubt on planned reforms like a pensions overhaul. He could still govern if he forms a coalition with the conservatives. But any deal will come with substantial concessions.

Financiers may pave U.S. campaign trail with gold

27 May 2022

With ex-Bridgewater boss David McCormick questing for a Senate seat, more Wall Streeters could try their hand at politics. Wealth built in bull-market times can give even novices a lift. And from Ken Griffin to Jamie Dimon, there’s no shortage of finance bosses with strong views.

Australian election augurs serious climate upgrade

23 May 2022

Labor’s more ambitious green goals helped unseat the conservative coalition. Wins by climate-focused independents warn further against complacency. New Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also will rely on Greens for support. Bolder 2035 emissions targets would set the right tone.

Drought of economic ambition blots Aussie election

20 May 2022

Despite a 48-year low in joblessness and navigating the pandemic, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s party is in a dogfight. Homebuyer and dam-building policies smell fishy, and a lack of climate leadership hurts too. As times get tougher, whoever wins will have to be bolder.

Marcos clan’s return to Manila is awkwardly timed

11 May 2022

The Philippines’ president-elect Ferdinand Marcos Jr, son of the late strongman, inherits an economy that grew 7.7% last quarter, but faces mounting headwinds. He will have to find drivers beyond the infrastructure spending that made his predecessor – and father - so popular.

Post Roe-leak, it’s not the economy, stupid

6 May 2022

Republicans were in a sweet spot ahead of November’s U.S. elections. Joe Biden’s early presidency has brought inflation, a failed attempt to tax the rich, and little help for the middle class. A leaked Supreme Court opinion on abortion, though, changes the calculus.

Macron’s easy election victory masks big challenge

24 Apr 2022

The French president has won a second term. It will be harder than his first. His party may lose its majority in parliament within months. And he will struggle to implement a bold and costly agenda in a divided country. His room for policy manoeuvre looks limited.

Spendthrift Macron will hit harsh fiscal reality

21 Apr 2022

The French president must attract left-leaning voters to win a second term, and then a parliamentary majority. But financing pledges, like big investments in green energy, will mean choosing between higher taxes and worsening public debt levels. He’s likely to opt for the latter.

Macron-Le Pen replay reveals deeper French splits

10 Apr 2022

President Emmanuel Macron resisted a surge in support for his far-right challenger Marine Le Pen in the first round of elections. But the vote laid bare more divisions than existed five years ago. These rifts will make running the euro zone’s second biggest economy arduous.

Culture wars: Musk’s Twitter punt, French election

7 Apr 2022

Outspoken political and business leaders are making big moves. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss why Twitter may have reaped the benefits from Elon Musk’s investment and how French President Emmanuel Macron needs to work hard to win over voters.

Macron’s smallest problem is winning second term

4 Apr 2022

The French president’s lead over contender Marine Le Pen is shrinking. But a decent economic record and a divided opposition mean he’s the favourite to win the upcoming election despite asking the French to work more. Tougher years lie ahead to implement his manifesto.

Emmanuel Macron changes stripes as election nears

15 Mar 2022

The French president’s chances of winning a second term have been boosted by his performance during the pandemic and since Russia’s attack on Ukraine. But the main plank of his platform is to “protect” the French. That’s a far cry from the bold reformer who ran five years ago.

South Korea kicks off Asian welfare state debate

9 Mar 2022

A proposed universal basic income scheme has taken centre stage in the country's tightly contested presidential election. Given rising inequality and weak social safety nets, voters are warming to the radical idea. Other stingy governments in the region might take note.

Korea’s market upgrade would draw virtuous circle

8 Mar 2022

Seoul may relax currency rules and short-selling curbs to help win developed-market status from index provider MSCI. Even one of this week’s presidential candidates is pushing for the upgrade. Some will resent losing such protection, but the broader benefits are clear.

Irish housing bind opens door to radical options

31 Jan 2022

The cost of renting in Ireland has soared, but so has the cost of buying a home. Regulatory reluctance to relax bank lending standards means demand won’t rise to help stimulate new supply. The impasse makes it more likely that leftist Sinn Féin may win the next election.

Italy’s presidential race revives political risk

24 Jan 2022

Former premier Silvio Berlusconi abandoned a divisive bid to become the country’s president. The absence of decent alternatives favours Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s ascent. If he makes the switch, however, Italy could have another ineffective government or face early elections.

Germany enlarges green transition’s grey area

2 Dec 2021

Berlin’s new coalition wants to build new plants powered by natural gas, even as it exits coal quicker. That strays from the ideal path to net-zero CO2 emissions. But the real problem is the precedent set by rich countries caving to those promoting gas as a green “bridge fuel”.