Election

Macron’s easy election victory masks big challenge

24 Apr 2022

The French president has won a second term. It will be harder than his first. His party may lose its majority in parliament within months. And he will struggle to implement a bold and costly agenda in a divided country. His room for policy manoeuvre looks limited.

Spendthrift Macron will hit harsh fiscal reality

21 Apr 2022

The French president must attract left-leaning voters to win a second term, and then a parliamentary majority. But financing pledges, like big investments in green energy, will mean choosing between higher taxes and worsening public debt levels. He’s likely to opt for the latter.

Macron-Le Pen replay reveals deeper French splits

10 Apr 2022

President Emmanuel Macron resisted a surge in support for his far-right challenger Marine Le Pen in the first round of elections. But the vote laid bare more divisions than existed five years ago. These rifts will make running the euro zone’s second biggest economy arduous.

Culture wars: Musk’s Twitter punt, French election

7 Apr 2022

Outspoken political and business leaders are making big moves. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss why Twitter may have reaped the benefits from Elon Musk’s investment and how French President Emmanuel Macron needs to work hard to win over voters.

Macron’s smallest problem is winning second term

4 Apr 2022

The French president’s lead over contender Marine Le Pen is shrinking. But a decent economic record and a divided opposition mean he’s the favourite to win the upcoming election despite asking the French to work more. Tougher years lie ahead to implement his manifesto.

Emmanuel Macron changes stripes as election nears

15 Mar 2022

The French president’s chances of winning a second term have been boosted by his performance during the pandemic and since Russia’s attack on Ukraine. But the main plank of his platform is to “protect” the French. That’s a far cry from the bold reformer who ran five years ago.

South Korea kicks off Asian welfare state debate

9 Mar 2022

A proposed universal basic income scheme has taken centre stage in the country's tightly contested presidential election. Given rising inequality and weak social safety nets, voters are warming to the radical idea. Other stingy governments in the region might take note.

Korea’s market upgrade would draw virtuous circle

8 Mar 2022

Seoul may relax currency rules and short-selling curbs to help win developed-market status from index provider MSCI. Even one of this week’s presidential candidates is pushing for the upgrade. Some will resent losing such protection, but the broader benefits are clear.

Irish housing bind opens door to radical options

31 Jan 2022

The cost of renting in Ireland has soared, but so has the cost of buying a home. Regulatory reluctance to relax bank lending standards means demand won’t rise to help stimulate new supply. The impasse makes it more likely that leftist Sinn Féin may win the next election.

Italy’s presidential race revives political risk

24 Jan 2022

Former premier Silvio Berlusconi abandoned a divisive bid to become the country’s president. The absence of decent alternatives favours Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s ascent. If he makes the switch, however, Italy could have another ineffective government or face early elections.

Germany enlarges green transition’s grey area

2 Dec 2021

Berlin’s new coalition wants to build new plants powered by natural gas, even as it exits coal quicker. That strays from the ideal path to net-zero CO2 emissions. But the real problem is the precedent set by rich countries caving to those promoting gas as a green “bridge fuel”.

Cox: French finance will take an electoral pause

30 Nov 2021

Parisian executives who want President Emmanuel Macron to win another term will avoid deals that could become political hot potatoes for the former M&A banker. Shopping abroad is chic but domestic takeovers and synergy-squeezers are out for now. After the election, le déluge.

New German coalition has old problem with spending

24 Nov 2021

The three parties that will form the next government want to invest more in green and digital projects while respecting strict debt limits. Cutting budget subsidies and using off-balance-sheet vehicles may help. But the plans fall far too short of big-spending peers like America.

Voters are last brake on Turkey’s lunatic express

19 Nov 2021

Bullied by President Tayyip Erdogan, the central bank slashed borrowing costs to 15%. Fearing runaway inflation, the lira plunged to record lows. With few other checks on a leader at war with interest rates, 2023 elections may be Turks’ best hope of restoring monetary sanity.

Political spotlight on Carlyle after U.S. election

3 Nov 2021

The buyout firm that once employed George H.W. Bush worked for years to shed its reputation as a shrewd Beltway operator. Former co-CEO Glenn Youngkin’s win makes him Virginia’s next governor. That gives him presidential potential, and puts Carlyle back on the Washington map.

Capital Calls: U.S. deal watchdog, Italian IPO

5 Oct 2021

Concise views on global finance: Blog posts from the FTC’s competition chief reveal plans to go way bigger when extracting concessions from merging companies; Italy's $5 billion security group Leonardo is taking a second run at listing its DRS unit in the United States.

Close German vote dilutes economic reform hopes

26 Sep 2021

Socialist Olaf Scholz and his centre-right rival, Armin Laschet, will each woo the fiscally conservative Free Democrats in a bid to form a government. The tight election result hands the FDP leverage that may limit scope for big green investments and more supple EU budget rules.

Norway readies fresh round of green air guitar

14 Sep 2021

The Scandinavian state is on track for a left-wing coalition pledging to do more on climate change after eight years of conservative rule. But rapid cuts to national hydrocarbons output aren’t likely. Given Norway has a $1.4 trln wealth fund, it can afford to go beyond gesturing.

German election offers more continuity than chaos

8 Sep 2021

A three-way coalition may lead the EU’s largest economy after September’s poll. A grouping of left, right, or green lawmakers could take months to form and shirk reforms at home and in Europe. Climate change and the pandemic aftermath will still shape policy for the better.

Zambian sunlight could disperse Chinese debt fog

18 Aug 2021

The African state’s new leader, Hakainde Hichilema, has to forge a deal with creditors after last year’s default. Getting China to the table won’t be easy. Lifting Beijing’s veil of secrecy by revealing Lusaka’s loans would remove the biggest barrier, and set a good precedent.