Election

Spain’s next PM will have to fix economy pronto

21 Jul 2023

Left-wing incumbent Pedro Sánchez trails his conservative rival ahead of Sunday’s poll. Whoever forms a government will need to move fast. Robust growth – and 161 bln euros in EU funds – offer an opportunity to tackle joblessness, low investment and loose public finances.

Greece’s reform labours are only half complete

5 Jun 2023

Investors like the euro zone’s former problem child, but a large current account deficit and corruption undermine its appeal. It’s not clear Kyriakos Mitsotakis will do what’s needed to boost savings and improve the rule of law if re-elected as prime minister, says Hugo Dixon.

Capital Calls: Turkey, Indivior

5 Jun 2023

Concise views on global finance: President Tayyip Erdogan’s new treasury minister will struggle to steer the $900 bln economy towards orthodox monetary policies; shares in the London-listed drugmaker jumped after it settled a lawsuit, making it more appealing to potential buyers.

Summer vote can dissipate Spain’s economic clouds

31 May 2023

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is gambling on a snap general election after a rout in local polls. Frictions within his ruling coalition irked voters. Strong popular backing would give him the mandate to tackle the country’s fiscal woes, pension costs and high unemployment.

Erdogan win sends stark note on economy and votes

29 May 2023

People in Turkey effectively opted to prolong the president’s wild policies that have led to 44% inflation. The extension of his 20-year rule tees up the country to inch further away from the West. For global leaders, it’s a warning that success in money matters only goes so far.

How US allies can mitigate Trump 2.0

29 May 2023

A return to the White House for the pro-Putin, protectionist and climate-sceptic former President would pose many challenges for other rich democracies. Their best insurance is to ramp up support for Ukraine, promote trade and speed up action on global warming, says Hugo Dixon.

Strongmen are riskier the more they stay in power

22 May 2023

Autocrats often seduce investors with promises to be good for business. But Turkey’s Tayyip Erdogan, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in China show this effect doesn’t last. The longer leaders stick around, the greater the risk of poor decisions, says Hugo Dixon.

Erdogan part three would be worse and the same

18 May 2023

The Turkish president is in a heated battle to lead the battered country. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the risks Turkey faces if he stays in office, his rival’s offering and how the outcome of the election will impact the rest of the world.

Turkey votes for long-term market instability

15 May 2023

With President Erdogan and his rival set for a May 28 runoff, uncertainty is the main upshot of the country’s elections. That prolongs the agony for a $900 bln economy plagued by 44% inflation and wild fiscal policies. An even weaker lira and warier foreign investors will ensue.

A post-Erdogan Turkey could come in from the cold

27 Feb 2023

Investors shunned the country as the president let inflation rip. He strained relations with the West by cosying up to Putin and did too little on climate change. An opposition win in coming elections, more likely after the recent earthquake, may change all that, says Hugo Dixon.

It’s the wrong time for Trumponomics

16 Nov 2022

The former U.S. president is trying to reclaim the job in 2024. He oversaw years of economic strength with tax cuts and deficit spending. But such policies put him at odds with the Federal Reserve even more now than before, and they don't meet today's challenges.

Brazil gives flagging climate fight a timely boost

31 Oct 2022

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Jair Bolsonaro in the Latin American state’s presidential election. He could curb deforestation that makes the country a big greenhouse gas emitter. It’s a bright spot in a year when public and private sector momentum on climate change has slowed.

Capital Calls: Italy’s next finance minister

14 Oct 2022

Concise views on global finance: Rightist leader Giorgia Meloni is likely to pick a pro-European politician as finance chief.

Italy’s right-wing winners inherit poison chalice

26 Sep 2022

Nationalist Giorgia Meloni, EU-sceptic Matteo Salvini and convicted former PM Silvio Berlusconi scored an election victory. Despite campaign unity, they disagree on sanctions and spending. The rivalries risk undermining the high-debt nation’s ability to tackle its energy crisis.

Italy’s first female leader, Amazon’s monopoly

22 Sep 2022

Far-right leader Giorgia Meloni is favourite to become prime minister after Sunday’s election. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate how she will handle Rome’s debt, which is expected to reach 148% of GDP. And: the online retail giant’s antitrust battle.

Corporate lemons will vex Italy’s next government

22 Sep 2022

Premier Mario Draghi couldn’t sell bailed-out Monte Paschi nor halt a share slide at indebted Telecom Italia. If right-wing Giorgia Meloni wins Sunday’s election, she will have to untangle such company knots. Her zeal for patriotic solutions may prove costly and inefficient.

How Italy could tip into a tailspin

19 Sep 2022

Investors think the country will probably muddle through if Giorgia Meloni, a former post-fascist and eurosceptic, becomes its next prime minister. But there’s still a medium-term risk that Italy’s massive debt will spin out of control, says Hugo Dixon.

Italy’s first female PM is red flag for workwomen

16 Sep 2022

Ultra-right politician Giorgia Meloni is likely to become the next premier. She opposes boardroom quotas that have lifted female representation from less than 7% to 41% in a decade. Scrapping them would be a setback for a country struggling with stubbornly low female employment.

Italy’s next government has tricky to-do list

13 Sep 2022

A rightist coalition is poised to win Italian general elections this month. In this week’s Exchange podcast Muzinich’s Fabrizio Pagani discusses the next executive’s immediate economic challenges. These include coping with an energy crisis, high public debt and a bailed-out bank.

Trussonomics may freak out the markets

5 Sep 2022

If the UK’s new prime minister was only planning big energy subsidies, investors might not worry too much. But Liz Truss is also planning tax cuts – and may pick fights with both the Bank of England and European Union. If so, the pound could be clobbered, says Hugo Dixon.