Election

Turkey votes for long-term market instability

15 May 2023

With President Erdogan and his rival set for a May 28 runoff, uncertainty is the main upshot of the country’s elections. That prolongs the agony for a $900 bln economy plagued by 44% inflation and wild fiscal policies. An even weaker lira and warier foreign investors will ensue.

A post-Erdogan Turkey could come in from the cold

27 Feb 2023

Investors shunned the country as the president let inflation rip. He strained relations with the West by cosying up to Putin and did too little on climate change. An opposition win in coming elections, more likely after the recent earthquake, may change all that, says Hugo Dixon.

It’s the wrong time for Trumponomics

16 Nov 2022

The former U.S. president is trying to reclaim the job in 2024. He oversaw years of economic strength with tax cuts and deficit spending. But such policies put him at odds with the Federal Reserve even more now than before, and they don't meet today's challenges.

Brazil gives flagging climate fight a timely boost

31 Oct 2022

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Jair Bolsonaro in the Latin American state’s presidential election. He could curb deforestation that makes the country a big greenhouse gas emitter. It’s a bright spot in a year when public and private sector momentum on climate change has slowed.

Capital Calls: Italy’s next finance minister

14 Oct 2022

Concise views on global finance: Rightist leader Giorgia Meloni is likely to pick a pro-European politician as finance chief.

Italy’s right-wing winners inherit poison chalice

26 Sep 2022

Nationalist Giorgia Meloni, EU-sceptic Matteo Salvini and convicted former PM Silvio Berlusconi scored an election victory. Despite campaign unity, they disagree on sanctions and spending. The rivalries risk undermining the high-debt nation’s ability to tackle its energy crisis.

Italy’s first female leader, Amazon’s monopoly

22 Sep 2022

Far-right leader Giorgia Meloni is favourite to become prime minister after Sunday’s election. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate how she will handle Rome’s debt, which is expected to reach 148% of GDP. And: the online retail giant’s antitrust battle.

Corporate lemons will vex Italy’s next government

22 Sep 2022

Premier Mario Draghi couldn’t sell bailed-out Monte Paschi nor halt a share slide at indebted Telecom Italia. If right-wing Giorgia Meloni wins Sunday’s election, she will have to untangle such company knots. Her zeal for patriotic solutions may prove costly and inefficient.

How Italy could tip into a tailspin

19 Sep 2022

Investors think the country will probably muddle through if Giorgia Meloni, a former post-fascist and eurosceptic, becomes its next prime minister. But there’s still a medium-term risk that Italy’s massive debt will spin out of control, says Hugo Dixon.

Italy’s first female PM is red flag for workwomen

16 Sep 2022

Ultra-right politician Giorgia Meloni is likely to become the next premier. She opposes boardroom quotas that have lifted female representation from less than 7% to 41% in a decade. Scrapping them would be a setback for a country struggling with stubbornly low female employment.

Italy’s next government has tricky to-do list

13 Sep 2022

A rightist coalition is poised to win Italian general elections this month. In this week’s Exchange podcast Muzinich’s Fabrizio Pagani discusses the next executive’s immediate economic challenges. These include coping with an energy crisis, high public debt and a bailed-out bank.

Trussonomics may freak out the markets

5 Sep 2022

If the UK’s new prime minister was only planning big energy subsidies, investors might not worry too much. But Liz Truss is also planning tax cuts – and may pick fights with both the Bank of England and European Union. If so, the pound could be clobbered, says Hugo Dixon.

Japan’s Kishida inherits growing China headache

11 Jul 2022

The Prime Minister’s party increased its majority in Sunday’s election after former leader Shinzo Abe was shot. It’s now easier for Fumio Kishida to crank up defence spending and attack waning competitiveness. The former will anger China’s leaders; the latter will amuse them.

Italy starts countdown to risky life after Draghi

5 Jul 2022

The 5-Star party may bring down Mario Draghi’s coalition government. A crisis would hurt growth and raise the chances of a less EU-friendly executive. Worse, market jitters due to rising political uncertainty may complicate the European Central Bank’s efforts to tame bond yields.

Money can’t buy Ken Griffin political happiness

29 Jun 2022

Citadel’s founder backed an Illinois candidate for governor with a $50 mln donation but lost. The winner, a farmer, also has deep-pocketed backers. He will go up against Hyatt heir J.B. Pritzker. As billionaires on both sides up political stakes, they will cancel each other out.

Macron has narrow path to avoid domestic stalemate

20 Jun 2022

His party’s poor showing in parliamentary elections diminishes the French president’s authority and casts doubt on planned reforms like a pensions overhaul. He could still govern if he forms a coalition with the conservatives. But any deal will come with substantial concessions.

Financiers may pave U.S. campaign trail with gold

27 May 2022

With ex-Bridgewater boss David McCormick questing for a Senate seat, more Wall Streeters could try their hand at politics. Wealth built in bull-market times can give even novices a lift. And from Ken Griffin to Jamie Dimon, there’s no shortage of finance bosses with strong views.

Australian election augurs serious climate upgrade

23 May 2022

Labor’s more ambitious green goals helped unseat the conservative coalition. Wins by climate-focused independents warn further against complacency. New Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also will rely on Greens for support. Bolder 2035 emissions targets would set the right tone.

Drought of economic ambition blots Aussie election

20 May 2022

Despite a 48-year low in joblessness and navigating the pandemic, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s party is in a dogfight. Homebuyer and dam-building policies smell fishy, and a lack of climate leadership hurts too. As times get tougher, whoever wins will have to be bolder.

Marcos clan’s return to Manila is awkwardly timed

11 May 2022

The Philippines’ president-elect Ferdinand Marcos Jr, son of the late strongman, inherits an economy that grew 7.7% last quarter, but faces mounting headwinds. He will have to find drivers beyond the infrastructure spending that made his predecessor – and father - so popular.