Election

Influencer model infects US political fundraising

27 Oct 2023

The US House elected a speaker after four people gave it a try. The chaos partly reflects how politicians now receive support. Social media enables them to reach voters without the backing of their party. The new way to create star power will disrupt politics as it has Hollywood.

Rainmakers find political hedge in Chris Christie

16 Oct 2023

Stanley Druckenmiller, David Tepper and Paul Tudor Jones have backed the former New Jersey governor for US president. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy raised cash from the Winklevii. Donald Trump is still Republican front-runner. But at this stage, it makes sense to spread cash.

Poland’s warmer EU ties may come with frozen funds

16 Oct 2023

Centre-left leader Donald Tusk is likely to be the new PM after Sunday’s election. Ending the nationalists’ rule will bring closer relations with Brussels. But to release 35 bln euros in EU aid, the new government will still have to get past right-wing President Andrzej Duda.

US grand strategy can prop up the global order

16 Oct 2023

The horror in Israel and Gaza is a new blow to a fragile world. But the United States can prevent the rules-based order from collapsing by continuing to steer a steady course with regards to Russia and China. The biggest risk would be the return of Donald Trump as president.

Elections will test Indonesia’s economic progress

16 Oct 2023

President Joko Widodo’s second and final term ends next year. His administration has brought stability and fostered investment in everything from EV metals to infrastructure. A domestic and global slowdown and a potential China backlash could taint matters for his successor.

Capital Calls: Germany, Schaeffler

9 Oct 2023

Concise views on global finance: Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s resounding defeat in key local elections on Sunday sends a message to Brussels; the German group’s 3.6 bln euro acquisition of auto supplier Vitesco makes sense in an era of greater competition.

Polish cereal showdown goes against the EU grain

4 Oct 2023

A spat over Ukraine’s grain exports is the latest blemish on the European Union’s fraught relationship with Poland, the bloc’s sixth largest economy and biggest net recipient of EU funds. If upcoming elections push Warsaw further from Brussels, both sides have much to lose.

A Putin friend in Slovakia could disrupt the EU

28 Sep 2023

Former PM Robert Fico is leading in the polls ahead of Saturday’s election. He wants to stop support for Ukraine and opposes sanctions on Moscow. Even with only 0.7% of the European Union’s GDP, a member state governed by a Russian ally could seriously mess up the bloc’s work.

African coups will ramp up scramble for minerals

31 Aug 2023

Gabon’s government was overthrown by a military revolt, following similar unrest in Niger. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how instability in producers of key resources like manganese and uranium will lead global powers to hunt for more stable sources.

African coups will exacerbate grab for resources

30 Aug 2023

Military revolts in Niger and Gabon are destabilising two resource-rich nations. That’s bad news while the continent struggles with rising interest rates, no market funding and poor governance. Uncertainty will intensify global powers’ rivalry for control of oil and minerals.

Republican hopefuls’ deficit goals are all talk

24 Aug 2023

Conservatives vying for the Republican nomination vowed to slash the deficit in a debate. After years of spending under conservative leadership, it’s a throwback. Yet tax cuts and other costly projects are still key talking points. Worsened US finances make the agenda impossible.

Capital Calls: Chevron

24 Jul 2023

Concise views on global finance: The $300 bln oil giant’s second-quarter profit was cut nearly in half as production rose slightly. It reflects lower prices but there also are signs the industry has learned how to make itself more durable.

Spain’s next PM will have to fix economy pronto

21 Jul 2023

Left-wing incumbent Pedro Sánchez trails his conservative rival ahead of Sunday’s poll. Whoever forms a government will need to move fast. Robust growth – and 161 bln euros in EU funds – offer an opportunity to tackle joblessness, low investment and loose public finances.

Greece’s reform labours are only half complete

5 Jun 2023

Investors like the euro zone’s former problem child, but a large current account deficit and corruption undermine its appeal. It’s not clear Kyriakos Mitsotakis will do what’s needed to boost savings and improve the rule of law if re-elected as prime minister, says Hugo Dixon.

Capital Calls: Turkey, Indivior

5 Jun 2023

Concise views on global finance: President Tayyip Erdogan’s new treasury minister will struggle to steer the $900 bln economy towards orthodox monetary policies; shares in the London-listed drugmaker jumped after it settled a lawsuit, making it more appealing to potential buyers.

Summer vote can dissipate Spain’s economic clouds

31 May 2023

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is gambling on a snap general election after a rout in local polls. Frictions within his ruling coalition irked voters. Strong popular backing would give him the mandate to tackle the country’s fiscal woes, pension costs and high unemployment.

Erdogan win sends stark note on economy and votes

29 May 2023

People in Turkey effectively opted to prolong the president’s wild policies that have led to 44% inflation. The extension of his 20-year rule tees up the country to inch further away from the West. For global leaders, it’s a warning that success in money matters only goes so far.

How US allies can mitigate Trump 2.0

29 May 2023

A return to the White House for the pro-Putin, protectionist and climate-sceptic former President would pose many challenges for other rich democracies. Their best insurance is to ramp up support for Ukraine, promote trade and speed up action on global warming, says Hugo Dixon.

Strongmen are riskier the more they stay in power

22 May 2023

Autocrats often seduce investors with promises to be good for business. But Turkey’s Tayyip Erdogan, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in China show this effect doesn’t last. The longer leaders stick around, the greater the risk of poor decisions, says Hugo Dixon.

Erdogan part three would be worse and the same

18 May 2023

The Turkish president is in a heated battle to lead the battered country. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the risks Turkey faces if he stays in office, his rival’s offering and how the outcome of the election will impact the rest of the world.