Election

A weaker Modi may not be too bad for India

23 May 2024

Business leaders were betting on a thumping win for the premier's party in the ongoing election and policy stability for five more years. Market volatility suggests some uncertainty. If the BJP cedes seats, India's growth may lose some momentum but there are potential gains too.

UK’s election gamble ends messy stalemate

22 May 2024

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called a national vote on July 4, much earlier than expected. His Conservative party trails Labour by 21 percentage points. The PM will point to a better economy but won’t offer more tax cuts. Still, a summer poll will provide much-needed clarity.

The dollar and the yuan are polar opposites

16 May 2024

The strong greenback and questions over a Chinese devaluation reflect the contrasting outlooks for the two economies. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate why Beijing is unlikely to push down its currency and why the dollar will remain elevated.

BoE cavalry will arrive too late for Rishi Sunak

8 May 2024

After a local polls rout, the UK prime minister badly needs an economic boost before this year’s national elections. But Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will only cut rates when inflation drops from the current 3.2%. By then, it could be too late for the government.

Sánchez’s psychodrama leaves Spain at loose end

29 Apr 2024

PM Pedro Sánchez is staying on after threatening to resign over a court probe into his wife’s dealings. He appears weakened before a series of elections, raising doubt on his ability to push for reforms and ensure the country remains the fastest-growing major European economy.

Middle East is complicating West’s grand strategy

15 Apr 2024

The U.S. and its allies wanted to focus on Russia and China. But the Gaza war - and now a conflict between Iran and Israel - is distracting them. It has also undermined support from poorer nations and boosted Donald Trump’s chances of returning to the White House.

India can grow fast with or without Narendra Modi

10 Apr 2024

The prime minister is hot favourite to secure a third term, and to lead the country into another decade of economic expansion. Yet projections of 6%-plus annual GDP growth are below the country’s own track record. And hitting the mark does not depend on one man.

Only an oil slump can stop Vladimir Putin

18 Mar 2024

To keep pumping money into his Ukraine war, the newly re-elected president will have to squeeze Russians. Nobody can prevent him from further unpopular measures. A sharp drop in oil revenue might force him to change course, but that is hard and risky for the West to bring about.

UK ‘non-dom’ slap is right move for wrong reason

6 Mar 2024

Finance minister Jeremy Hunt scrapped tax benefits for people living in the UK but officially domiciled abroad. That improves fiscal fairness and may raise over $3 bln per year. But the benefits are uncertain and the funds went to pre-election giveaways, not public services.

Excessive UK tax giveaways risk longer-term harm

5 Mar 2024

Finance minister Jeremy Hunt may spend some 15 bln pounds in pre-election fiscal gifts in Wednesday’s budget. He could be tempted to do more – and make life difficult for the next government – by further cutting public services. But that would put the country in a bind.

Joe Biden 2.0 offers chance at less global tension

19 Feb 2024

In a second term, the US president might preside over less fractious geopolitics and trade friction. He also could make a fresh push to fight climate change. American allies shouldn’t get their hopes up, though; such an agenda would face obstacles at home and abroad.

Infrastructure may take toll on big asset managers

14 Feb 2024

Investors have sunk $1 trln in safe, stable assets; BlackRock just made a $13 bln bet on the sector. But success has been spotty and higher rates make investing harder. Plus the definition of infrastructure – which includes laundry and Scandinavian fish farms – is stretching.

Economics is pushing US swing voters to pick Trump

16 Jan 2024

The real estate mogul won the Iowa caucus, the first Republican primary in the presidential race. The midwestern state is not a battleground, but hotly contested areas favor him over President Joe Biden. That may be because their residents feel poorer than four years ago.

Taiwan navigates new waters with old map

15 Jan 2024

Lai Ching-te has won his independence-leaning party an unprecedented third term. That tees up a deterioration in the island’s relationship with China and will refocus global minds on the costs of a possible confrontation. It puts pressure on Lai to find new ways to minimise risks.

Taiwan elections can weaken an unstable status quo

4 Jan 2024

The Democratic Progressives are vying for a third term but another re-election of the independence leaning party will frustrate China. While market indicators are buoyant, more of the same in the island's local politics can make Sino-US ties worse.

Green backlash will spread to European Parliament

3 Jan 2024

Pro-environment parties risk losing clout in June’s pan-EU vote. That will reinforce a strengthening bond between conservatives and far-right forces wary of the industrial and social cost of the clean transition. The EU’s ambitious Green Deal will get a paler hue.

Dutch shock points to tremors in Europe’s core

23 Nov 2023

Geert Wilders’ anti-immigrant, anti-EU Freedom Party came first in Netherlands elections. That means long coalition talks leading to an unstable, unpredictable government. His ascent hurts European policymaking and boosts chances of once fringe parties in states like France.

Social Security collides with idle golden years

9 Nov 2023

Republican presidential candidates pitched a handful of ideas for saving the US benefit, like a higher retirement age. But potential solutions can’t dent the real issues: an aging population and massive, broad overspending.

Biden’s economic scorecard touts fragile advantage

9 Nov 2023

Low unemployment and easing inflation should aid the US president’s reelection push. Yet most Americans aren’t impressed, and rising borrowing costs don’t help. A Breakingviews tally gives Biden a narrow economic lead over Republicans. The next 12 months will test that advantage.

Influencer model infects US political fundraising

27 Oct 2023

The US House elected a speaker after four people gave it a try. The chaos partly reflects how politicians now receive support. Social media enables them to reach voters without the backing of their party. The new way to create star power will disrupt politics as it has Hollywood.