Election

Ishiba’s bad election bet will boost Bank of Japan

24 Oct 2024

The new prime minister’s decision to call a snap election next week could see his Liberal Democratic Party lose an outright majority in the lower house. That would weaken Shigeru Ishiba’s long-term prospects but would help safeguard the central bank’s push to slowly raise rates.

China’s woes make Plaza Accord 2.0 less outlandish

16 Oct 2024

If Donald Trump becomes US President, he wants a weak dollar and taxes on Chinese imports. He may use the threat of tariffs to get Beijing to boost the yuan, an echo of the 1985 Plaza Accord. A strong currency hurts growth, but a trade war could be worse for President Xi Jinping.

Old theories offer new insight into global rivalry

14 Oct 2024

The geographer Halfold Mackinder in 1904 proposed that future strife would revolve around control of Eurasia. Though the modern world is very different, it’s one way to understand conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and the showdown between the United States and China.

There’s no debate: big US spending is a tough sell

11 Sep 2024

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris squared off on immigration, abortion and, strangely, pets. Missing, however, were any grand fiscal plans. Promises of tax cuts and tariffs would cost the government less, after infrastructure, Covid-19 and other initiatives chewed up some $13 trln.

Why Kamala Harris could be good for the planet

3 Sep 2024

The American vice president is being coy about how she will fight climate change if she beats Donald Trump to the White House. But Harris would have scope to step up action both at home and abroad – especially if the Democrats also do well in November’s congressional elections.

Kamalanomics contains too much of some good things

16 Aug 2024

Ahead of the Democratic convention next week, Kamala Harris is unveiling plans to unstick the housing market, curb food prices and lower taxes. Cutting red tape and other steps to encourage more homebuilding is sensible, but excessive goodies for buyers risks stoking inflation.

Donald Trump may dent but not dethrone King Dollar

26 Jul 2024

The US currency’s long-predicted demise has so far failed to materialise. The former president’s possible return to the White House is a reason to reconsider. While the greenback remains unassailable as the de facto global standard, its days of cyclical strength may be numbered.

Trump 2.0 might be the same, but much more

18 Jul 2024

After an earth-shaking few weeks in US politics, the Republican presidential candidate’s odds of returning to the White House look higher. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss what a second term might look like, and why Trump might be empowered this time.

Markets will keep shaky French regime on a leash

11 Jul 2024

A left-wing coalition and Emmanuel Macron’s centrists are vying for control of France’s government. Fiscal discipline may fall by the wayside. Paris is already being disciplined by Brussels for its high deficit and debt. A reliance on foreign investors leaves little wiggle room.

Economic cycle’s age is as problematic as Biden’s

9 Jul 2024

The US president’s record is pristine when it comes to an indicator that stymied former incumbents who lost re-election: unemployment. But that’s changing, and the cumulative effect of inflation makes for a mishmash of mediocrity. For Joe Biden, the election may come too late.

French election shock puts Macron in new quandary

7 Jul 2024

The left will dominate France’s parliament after Sunday’s runoff, while Marine Le Pen’s far right suffered a surprise setback. President Emmanuel Macron will struggle to build a centrist coalition. But appointing a left-leaning prime minister would leave investors on edge.

Labour ‘open for business’ stance faces early test

5 Jul 2024

New UK PM Keir Starmer wants to boost growth and attract capital. He must balance those priorities with political anxiety about inbound investment. Companies like Royal Mail and Thames Water will show where he draws the line, and how he wields extensive powers to block M&A.

Labour’s election win brings power and pitfalls

5 Jul 2024

Keir Starmer is Britain’s new prime minister after his Labour Party won over 410 seats in Thursday’s vote. The electoral landslide gives clarity, a mandate to boost growth and potentially a path to tax wealth. But self-imposed constraints mean change may be too gradual.

UK elections herald return to tarnished stability

4 Jul 2024

Polls suggest voters will hand Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party a historic defeat. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how a new government might pick up the pieces amid the legacy of a now-immutable Brexit and political turmoil engulfing global peers.

New UK government can claim competence dividend

2 Jul 2024

Eight years of political upheaval and economic uncertainty raised the risk premium for investors. Now the centrist Keir Starmer is set to take over, while France and the US face electoral turmoil. For the first time since the Brexit vote, the country looks a relative safe haven.

The risk of a euro crisis is rising

1 Jul 2024

While political instability in France adds to the single currency’s fragility, it probably won’t trigger another meltdown. But euro zone members’ high debts, pressing spending needs and low growth at a time of rising nationalism and geopolitical conflict are storing up trouble.

Far-right win leaves France amid shock and chaos

30 Jun 2024

Marine Le Pen’s party received 34% of the votes in French parliamentary elections, according to exit polls, and could win a majority of seats in the second round. If it doesn’t, the ensuing stalemate might be preferable to a government playing fast and loose with the economy.

Would-be Biden donors may start to think twice

28 Jun 2024

Billionaire backers like to spread money to both candidates in the US presidential election as an insurance policy. But the incumbent’s shaky debate performance might give some pause. It comes at a bad time. With $117 mln on hand, Trump has a 40% bigger war chest than Biden.

Presidential debate puts wrong people on the spot

27 Jun 2024

Personalities will overshadow agendas in Thursday's matchup between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Presidential aides matter more than candidate mudslinging and soundbites. Corporate directors are scrutinized when companies come under fire. Top advisors should have debates, too.

France raises ghosts of last euro zone crisis

27 Jun 2024

French voters will go to the polls this weekend for the first round of the parliamentary elections. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss why the country’s rising bond yields and the risks of contagion will be uncomfortably familiar for investors.