Economics

Dire US GDP figures may have silver lining

27 Feb 2009

The GDP growth revision from minus 3.8% to minus 6.2% looks bad. But while it rules out mild recession it may also rule out a 1990s Japan scenario. The US could be approaching the bottom, wherever it is. Also, banks with 4Q profits or modest losses may be stronger than they seem.

Bigger US budget problems to come after year one

26 Feb 2009

President Obama's budget combines a huge deficit in 2009 with ambitious plans to reduce it sharply by 2013, as well as major new government programmes. It's a very high risk strategy, requiring the economy and markets to be as responsive as its people to Obama's magic.

Japan’s export drop is not just its own problem

25 Feb 2009

Its 46% fall in exports in January does not reflect just its own weakness; other Asian countries' exports were down comparably. One hopeful possibility is that the US has outsourced its recession's inventory overhang. Or it could foreshadow a more severe global trade decline.

Hapless policymakers: Bernanke is as much to blame as Greenspan

11 Mar 2008

Inefficient market: The Perils of Tanzi finance

19 Feb 2004