Economics

Russian assets could be Trump card in Kyiv endgame

25 Nov 2024

The incoming US president wants to end the Ukraine war quickly, in part because he does not want to pay to defend the country. If Europe promised to find the cash – perhaps from Moscow’s $300 bln frozen reserves – Donald Trump might hold out for a better deal with Vladimir Putin.

There are few good ways out of China’s stock slump

21 Nov 2024

Despite a recent bounce driven by stimulus hopes, the country’s benchmark equity index is down by nearly a third in the past three-and-a-half years. Though valuations look cheap, Donald Trump’s return to the White House could lead to even worse outcomes for investors.

Market’s Trump trades at risk from bond vigilantes

20 Nov 2024

US consumer prices have risen 21% since 2020, helping President-elect Donald Trump win the White House. His policies, though, may stoke inflation. Stocks, bitcoin and the dollar like a hot economy. But a rising deficit could upset debt investors and hit the current market stars.

Ukraine support is cheaper option for Europe

19 Nov 2024

New US President Donald Trump could cut aid to Kyiv. But the Old Continent has the means, and reasons, to pay up. Letting Russia win would mean more defence spending, a refugee crisis and geopolitical strife. That’s a bigger toll than the 0.4% of GDP the bloc would need to spend.

Ireland’s $25 bln tax bounty reveals OECD flaws

19 Nov 2024

Dublin expects a record budget surplus in 2024 thanks to a cash deluge from tech giants. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Pascal Saint-Amans, the architect of a landmark 2021 tax treaty, explains how the US’s failure to ratify the deal allows havens to rake in billions.

China’s new hobbies create a spending mirage

19 Nov 2024

A fad for biking, hiking and the great outdoors has helped companies like $10 bln Amer Sports tempt shoppers. The athletic equipment firm is on track to grow mainland sales by over 40% this year. But consumers’ urge for adventure ultimately bodes ill for most retailers.

Beijing can slow, not stop, the yuan’s fall

18 Nov 2024

China hawks are headed for the White House, upping the odds of more tariffs on the $18 trln economy. That's expected to add downward pressure on the renminbi. Regulators have plenty of tools, but drawing a line in the sand would only provide a target for traders to challenge.

Investors ignore the law of long-term averages

14 Nov 2024

US stocks are trading at 38 times cyclically adjusted earnings, near the most expensive level ever on that measure. For more than two decades, equities have defied predictions that valuations return to the historical mean. Yet conditions which enabled juicy returns are fading.

UK megafund plan is weak tonic for investment ills

14 Nov 2024

Chancellor Rachel Reeves wants to consolidate the 1.3 trln pound retirement sector to create funds with more firepower to support the economy. It’s a worthy move, but could take years to pay off. Britain’s economic problems need more radical action.

Trump trades will run into Trump reality

14 Nov 2024

The president-elect’s victory sparked wild euphoria in markets. Now comes the realization that tariffs and immigration crackdowns threaten major costs, including the return of inflation. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the globe-spanning concerns.

Trump’s ‘America First’ revival could backfire

11 Nov 2024

The returning president’s nakedly transactional approach to foreign policy and trade will further erode global principles and make the United States a less reliable ally. Its friends in Europe and Asia will be minded to hedge their bets, ultimately benefiting China and Russia.

Europe lacks scope for fiery Trump trade riposte

8 Nov 2024

With a self-styled tariff man in the White House, the bloc may face blanket export levies. A vast trade surplus, and reliance on the US for key goods like gas, limit the scope for Brussels to respond in kind. Plan B may be to placate Donald Trump by pledging to boost US imports.

ECB will fail to get out ahead of US trade war

8 Nov 2024

Donald Trump’s return to the White House puts Europe in a bind. With the euro falling, slow growth and likely US tariffs, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde can help by slashing rates to 2.75% in December. But policymakers’ muddled priorities make that unlikely.

George Soros’ 1980s US debt warning echoes today

8 Nov 2024

The hedgie said in 1986 that booming stocks belied shaky government finances. That’s true now, and not just in the United States. Britain and France are also battling a fiscal trilemma, where states can’t simultaneously have high spending, low taxes and financial stability.

Fed’s victory lap runs into Trump-shaped detour

7 Nov 2024

The FOMC cut rates again, two days after the ex-president was voted back into office. His avowed higher tariffs and renewed tax cuts jeopardize the work that lowered inflation to 2%, alongside 4% unemployment. Threats to central bank independence also add to risks of stagflation.

Trump 2.0: taxes, tensions, tariffs, turbulence

7 Nov 2024

In a decisive comeback victory for his third White House run, Donald Trump notched gains across a wide set of voters and issues. In this week’s Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate the chaotic consequences now looming worldwide.

Trump win sends markets into parallel realities

6 Nov 2024

The Republican candidate’s clear election victory raised hopes of tax cuts and deregulation, sparking euphoria in US stocks, crypto and the dollar. Yet soaring yields on 30-year Treasury bonds reflect fears of future fiscal trouble. Investors cherry-pick policies at their peril.

Europe is unprepared for the Trump storm

6 Nov 2024

The continent faces tariffs and wavering US defence commitments after the Republican candidate clinched the White House. The bloc’s already sluggish economies will suffer. Meanwhile, divided politics will hinder Europe’s capacity to deal with the shock.

Trump re-election entrenches global instability

6 Nov 2024

The former president beat Kamala Harris to return to the White House. Hopes for tax cuts and deregulation will juice short-term asset values. But his love of tariffs and authoritarian instincts set the US – and world – on a perilous path. Unlike last time, it may not be reversed.

UK fiscal splurge limits BoE’s rate-cutting space

5 Nov 2024

The Bank of England is likely to lower borrowing costs to 4.75% this week. Next year, though, government spending will give Britain’s economy a sugar rush of growth and inflation. That will prevent Governor Andrew Bailey from easing policy as fast as peers in Europe and the US.