Economics

How Trump’s tariff turmoil scarred global markets

17 Apr 2025

Stocks and government bonds have steadied following dramatic falls triggered by the US president’s trade war. But the policy may yet do lasting damage. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists examine the possible long-term effects on US Treasuries and the dollar.

Tariffs gone wild yield unbridled earnings outlook

16 Apr 2025

Donald Trump’s shifting trade policy is causing havoc as firms try to pin down the impact. Retailer Walmart kept its profit prediction. United Airlines offered twin forecasts; rival Delta yanked its outlook. Amid the uncertainty, companies can embrace an anything-goes attitude.

State fiscal aid is harder call in 2025 than 2020

16 Apr 2025

Spain, Canada and South Korea are planning to prop up sectors hit by US levies. The damage will be less severe than five years ago, when Covid-19 led GDP to shrink by 3%. But high levels of debt and tariff uncertainty make it tough for states to know when and how to intervene.

US-China decoupling is crossing a Rubicon

16 Apr 2025

Sino-American relations were in slow decline. President Donald Trump’s trade war, and counterpart Xi Jinping's pledge to fight back, sets the stage for a messy divorce. A look at finance, investment, people and geopolitics show substantial ties vulnerable to fracture.

Argentina’s latest bailout gets a trade war boost

15 Apr 2025

A new $20 bln IMF loan caps off decades of interventions and repeated entanglements with international financiers. Inflation and poverty remain high in the nation now led by Javier Milei, but its lucrative commodities and limited US exposure may now thrive amid spiraling tariffs.

What could knock King Dollar off its throne

15 Apr 2025

The world’s dominant currency has survived devaluation, inflation, war, and many crises. US President Donald Trump’s return raises new doubts. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Paul Blustein talks about the secrets of the greenback’s success – and what could end its reign.

Tariff chaos leaves its mark on US debt costs

14 Apr 2025

Ten-year Treasury bonds yield over 4.4%, up from less than 4% barely a week ago. Forced selling and liquidity woes don’t help, but overseas investors also appear to be rethinking their exposure to the US. That’s a scary prospect for Uncle Sam as trade uncertainty drags on growth.

Time for the rest of the West to club together

13 Apr 2025

Europe, Japan and Canada can no longer rely on the United States. They need to cut their dependency on it while not becoming reliant on China. That means weaning themselves off the dollar, cooperating in trade and defence, and reaching out to emerging economies like India.

Global trade morass calls for an aggressive ECB

11 Apr 2025

Donald Trump’s tariffs are driving up uncertainty and roiling markets. The European Central Bank must decide if the risk of higher inflation is worse than that of a slump. The euro zone’s low growth, a strong euro and already tight policy justify a half percentage point cut.

EU gets hard-to-repeat win in Trump’s trade casino

10 Apr 2025

Ursula von der Leyen resisted an aggressive, Chinese-style response to the US president’s tariffs. The European Commission boss’s implicit wager that markets would prompt Donald Trump to rethink panned out. But the EU has swerved a crisis, rather than entered a safer paradigm.

Chinese stocks have big role to play in trade war

10 Apr 2025

Compared to global markets, Chinese indexes have been relatively stable. Official intervention is one reason. Investors betting on fiscal stimulus is another. The resilience matters to Beijing: it projects confidence to withstand US tariffs and can also spur consumption.

US-China trade clash risks all-out financial war

10 Apr 2025

Tit-for-tat tariffs torch a $600 bln bilateral relationship yet further levies will have diminishing sting. There are signs more escalation could lead to a dangerous weaponisation of finance. But for all the bluster, Trump's pause on other countries provides some breathing room.

Trump’s tariff retreat leaves lasting US scars

9 Apr 2025

Stocks, bonds and the dollar rallied after the president rolled back most of his reckless levies to 10% for 90 days. Trade frictions linger, however, especially with China, as does anxiety about future rash moves. Damage to the White House and American credibility will endure.

Why the US bond selloff could keep spiralling

9 Apr 2025

Yields on 30-year government debt spiked to almost 4.9%, from below 4.4% on Friday, as Donald Trump’s trade war roils the world’s key funding market. The squeeze reinforces longer-term fears about the cost of tariffs. Barring a policy U-turn, the selling looks set to continue.

Tariffs leave Europe’s airlines high and dry

8 Apr 2025

North Atlantic routes account for around a quarter of flag carriers’ revenue and over half their operating profit, analysts reckon. The likes of IAG had been cushioned from the tougher market ferrying passengers to Asia. US tariffs could see westbound flying hit squalls too.

Markets’ tariff carnage can get much, much worse

7 Apr 2025

A rout that wiped $7 trln of value from US stocks after President Trump unveiled steep trade levies may just be the start. Earnings forecasts are tumbling as prognosticators parse out the damage, but real pain comes if shell-shocked traders stop valuing them so highly.

Sickly dollar leaves shrinking pool of safe havens

7 Apr 2025

Donald Trump’s tariffs have dented the US currency, undermining traders’ favoured port in a storm. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen are benefitting from the dash for safety, while gold is the classic refuge. Still, in a global downturn there are few places for investors to hide.

Oil price has flaky defences against further falls

7 Apr 2025

Crude values have fallen 16% to $63 a barrel since last week’s US tariff bombshell. Geopolitical shocks and coordinated producer cuts offer ways to stop the rot. But President Trump’s preference for low oil prices, plus OPEC indiscipline, are reasons to brace for fresh declines.

Now is the time for a bold new UK-EU relationship

7 Apr 2025

As the US strains transatlantic ties, the United Kingdom and European Union have much to gain from joining forces. A security pact spanning economics, energy, the environment, tech and finance - as well as defence - would match the occasion. The main obstacle is lack of vision.

Yuan is strategic barometer for China post-tariffs

7 Apr 2025

Beijing is weakening its currency slowly, indicating some hope for tariff negotiations with the US. Limiting the downward pull of the yuan will also smooth talks with Asian peers as it seeks a functioning network of trading partners in a post-tariff world.