ECB

ECB’s crisis weapon pledge is vague and late

15 Jun 2022

The European Central Bank will “accelerate” work on a new tool to control soaring bond yields from weak sovereigns. The lack of detail reflects divisions within the bank on when and how to use such a programme. It’s an invitation to markets to test the ECB’s resolve yet again.

Central banks still have space to fight inflation

15 Jun 2022

Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde are tightening monetary policy to try to control soaring prices. Previous shocks have prompted the Fed and ECB chiefs to pause or loosen again. Despite plunging equity prices this time, calmer credit markets imply the “Fed Put” is far off.

UK lacks fiscal plan to buffer coming slowdown

13 Jun 2022

GDP has shrunk for two consecutive months while growth and inflation forecasts are the worst in the OECD. The Bank of England is fighting runaway inflation with ever-higher rates. As Brexit exerts an additional drag, the government needs a bolder approach to spending.

Draghi’s bond-buying triumph lacks obvious sequel

13 Apr 2022

The ECB’s plans to tighten monetary policy and the Ukraine war revive fears that weak euro zone members’ borrowing costs will soar. Though the former central bank boss tamed debt spreads in 2012, a repeat is tricky. Besides, governments that struggle can use tools Draghi devised.

EU’s Ukraine currency fix is a problem best shared

29 Mar 2022

The ECB wants the European Union to guarantee potential losses when Ukrainians fleeing the war change their currency into euros. A rival plan would leave this up to national governments. The pooled scheme is much more likely to give Ukrainians hope in the value of the hryvnia.

EU housing boom risk is more social than financial

11 Mar 2022

Watchdogs in Germany and elsewhere have hiked bank capital requirements and warned property may be 30% overvalued. Yet mortgage-lending standards remain solid, suggesting pandemic savings are mainly to blame for the runup. There’s little regulators can do about wealth inequality.

ECB chucks growth ball into governments’ court

10 Mar 2022

President Christine Lagarde is winding down asset purchases. It’s the opposite of what the central bank did in past crises, but high inflation is forcing her hand. Shielding the euro zone economy from the Ukraine war’s consequences will fall to politicians, who are slower to act.

Euro’s Ukraine battering intensifies ECB migraine

4 Mar 2022

The currency fell broadly, diving below $1.10, because the euro zone is exposed to economic fallout from Russia's invasion of its neighbour. The sliding exchange rate makes imports dearer, aggravating inflation. President Christine Lagarde’s policy predicament is getting worse.

Viewsroom: Ukraine, ECB and India’s giant insurer

17 Feb 2022

Worries about an invasion of Ukraine have rattled markets, but Dasha Afanasieva says Russian investors are more sanguine. The European Central Bank faces a tougher inflation juggling act, argues Swaha Pattanaik. And Una Galani discusses the listing of India’s Life Insurance Corp.

ECB has central banking’s hardest juggling act

15 Feb 2022

President Christine Lagarde faces a less acute inflation problem than U.S. or UK peers. But she’ll have to raise interest rates to curb price pressures while ensuring bond yield gaps between euro zone nations don’t widen to worrying levels. The two goals may become incompatible.

Guest view: Fed hikes spell emerging-market strain

4 Feb 2022

Poorer indebted economies face growing difficulties as the U.S. Federal Reserve signals its readiness to raise interest rates. William Rhodes, former president of Citibank, and economist Stuart Mackintosh lay out what creditors, borrowers and the IMF can do to avert a crisis.

ECB shows words matter more than actions

3 Feb 2022

President Christine Lagarde left interest rates unchanged while the Bank of England raised them. Yet she made the bigger market splash by admitting inflation risks had grown. It was the first clear sign that she may join global peers this year in tightening monetary policy.

Christine Lagarde will win rate rise timing tussle

19 Jan 2022

Money markets imply the European Central Bank will hike twice this year, even though its boss says policy tightening is unlikely in 2022. She will have to work hard to convince markets, but reason is on her side. Wage pressures are less evident in the euro zone than in America.

Banks’ rate-rise rewards may be bigger than ever

17 Jan 2022

Deposits at large U.S. lenders are up by a third since 2019 to $11 trln. They’ve stashed much of the cash in central-bank reserves, which immediately earn more as rates go up. Tighter monetary policy usually helps banks, but especially so given their current mix of assets.

Central banks will give risky debt a helpful shock

13 Jan 2022

Benchmark bond yields are rising as rate-setters around the world scale back asset purchases. That will reduce the appeal of corporate debt, but a correction in credit markets is nothing to fear. A setback may lead to less hazardous terms for bondholders, and a rout is unlikely.

Capital Calls: Bundesbank, Biogen

20 Dec 2021

Concise views on global finance: The new head of Germany's central bank is a reassuringly boring choice; cutting the price of its Alzheimer's drug could help Biogen squeeze something out of what looks like a flop.

Trailblazing UK rate rise may pay off in the end

16 Dec 2021

The Bank of England is the first major central bank to hike its policy rate. The ECB faces less acute price pressures and the Fed must consider the job market alongside inflation. It’s a gamble, but acting now means British rate-setters will have less hiking to do in the future.

Omicron may give inflation a chance to bed in

29 Nov 2021

The new coronavirus variant could ease short-term price pressures if it triggers wider lockdowns that curb consumption. But if it prolongs supply-chain problems the reverse will be true in the longer term. Especially if cautious central bankers delay tightening monetary policy.

Central Europe is monetary policy’s control test

8 Nov 2021

The Czech, Polish and Hungarian central banks are hiking interest rates, the traditional riposte to rising inflation. In contrast, peers in major economies are responding less aggressively to price pressures. That makes for an interesting experiment.

UK wades into central banks vs. markets fray

4 Nov 2021

Bank of England boss Andrew Bailey has a different mandate from Fed Chair Jay Powell. But his basic challenge is the same: persuading investors that interest rates won’t rise as much as they think next year. The Briton’s old-school inflation target makes his job harder.